Two problems. The authors acknowledge one which is the large margin of uncertainty, particularly for individual constituencies. There is a heroic assumption that it will all even out for the national… (View Post)

It's a really good wager unless the Tories don't get a majority. (View Post)

and a glass of malt. Where's my kilt. (View Post)

Here is the detail with assumptions etc at the bottom of the spreadsheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing Not much change (View Post)

Adding in Comres shows drop of just one seat for the Tories. My model threads its way through the various polls smoothing the way with an exponential moving average. Changes tend to be slow but persi… (View Post)