Apologies. I took the +20 from the newspaper report. I think it was the Mail. I thought it was extraordinary. I didn't have the data tables at the time. As you were. (View Post)

In the data: Trustworthy Johnson -30 Corbyn -37 Swinson +20 Now that's interesting (View Post)

You have to admit that Cleverly was struggling - actually gulping. He became incoherent. Swinson, in contrast, was relaxed yet focused. She has a good rapport with Neil. I don't think Neil respe… (View Post)

My model gives these results for NE Somerset Model/Poll Con 49/44 LD 24/28 Lab 14/14 BXP 8/7 Grn 3/3 (View Post)

Warning: This post is for modelling nerds. The Cambridge poll has allowed me to compare my tactical model's prediction for Cambridge with the constituency poll, and fine-tune my assumptions. Pol… (View Post)