I don't think Ireland's stance is a sophisticated political calculation of upside versus downside. It is equivalent to joining a pro Palestinian protest march. There's nothing to gain … (View Post)

I've done a similar but simpler analysis of best case for the Tories. I've assumed all the 23% DKs actually vote Tory making 63% of the 2019 Tories. I've also assumed that any tactical… (View Post)

Sunak might want to avoid a repeat of the last Tory conference. (View Post)

A ceasefire means both sides cease firing. That's what most people want. (View Post)

But their very existence isn't at stake is it! Hamas isn't going to remove them. Israel is vastly more powerful including nuclear weapons. Framing this as an existential war is way OTT and … (View Post)