We now have three constituency polls. Comparing them with my model: Con/Lab/LD City and Westminster Poll 39/26/33 Model 50/30/20 Chelsea and Fulham Poll 48/24/25 Model 56/24/20 Hendon Poll 51/33/12 M… (View Post)

I know about the Grimsby seat specific polling. That is why I have reduced the tactical voting for Labour by BXP supporters to zero, even though many BXP supporters are ex-Labour. My model still show… (View Post)

I'm so sorry! You are right. I'm looking at next government. In theory the odds on Tory majority should be same and they nearly are. My basic point was the odds were lengthening slightly. M… (View Post)

Latest model predictions Con/Lab/LD 332/219/30 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing @alb1on You mentioned Finchley and Hampstead. The a… (View Post)

By giving them a criminal record for smoking pot or taking E. (View Post)