So if 50% of adults are double jabbed but it was totally ineffective you'd expect half the 30K to be double jabbed. As it is 2K rather than 15K that have been double jabbed and infected, that lo… (View Post)

That makes perfect sense. You have to allow for at least 5% pa opportunity cost on long term bets. On that bet I'd allow for maybe 20% reduction in value. 1.72 is a 58% chance. If you believe it… (View Post)

I think that is a really good analysis and my betting is in line with it. 70% of the GOP are pro Trump and will support his nomination or anyone he anoints. So I'm betting on Trump (or his nomin… (View Post)

"Its worth noting that a large portion of the none-of-the-above vote went 2010 to 2015 directly from the Liberal Democrats to UKIP." The north part of Barnes is an ex council estate. Basica… (View Post)

"7. The LibDem vote share was down only 1.3%. Compare and contrast with the fall in the Labour vote share in Chesham & Amersham." Lab majority was 0.9% so LD tactical votes made the dif… (View Post)