Betfair has a Burnham win at 1.66 i.e. 60%. I think his chances are better than that. Perhaps 75% (View Post)

It's good that Reform was in second place last time with 32% of the vote. This makes it an anti-Reform by election as well as a pro Burnham election. There will be a lot of Conservatives voting … (View Post)

He's already 18. His 18th birthday was on 9th April this year. (View Post)

She may not have a tax issue. Her tax situation was very complex with a trust for disabled child (with special provisions) and the child was just about to turn 18. I don't think it's big de… (View Post)

My assumptions: 50% prob Tomorrow, Streeting will announce he is standing. If so, Rayner will also stand to keep the seat warm for Burnham's return to the Commons (that's the deal) Starmer … (View Post)