Putting the Kantar poll into the EMA (to even out MOE and outliers) gives: Con 30% Lab 25% LD 18% BXP 14% Taking an average of Electoral Calculus and Flavible (which are converging in their predictio… (View Post)

I suspect that there was a majority support in parliament for May's deal subject to a referendum. But she never offered it. It wasn't available. It would have been a sensible move on her pa… (View Post)

Before the FTPA following a vote of no confidence, the government could choose either to resign or request a dissolution of Parliament. Callaghan chose dissolution which he was entitled to do. Now th… (View Post)

Johnson doesn't want a No Deal exit on 31st October. If necessary he will covertly facilitate parliament to prevent it so he can then blame parliament for frustrating the will of the people as h… (View Post)

Johnson doesn't want the EU to agree a deal. He wants them to be seen as the enemy. Johnson doesn't want a No Deal. He knows the damage it will cause but has to keep up the pretence in orde… (View Post)