I don't think it is worth laying anyone this far out, particularly at longish odds. As you say, it ties up your cash. I also don't think it is worth betting on anyone at short odds, particularly Vanc… (View Post)

It's all about visibility. If you are invisible no-one will vote for you. The LibDems get visibility by delivering leaflets (mostly unread I agree but noted), canvassing, posters and stakeboards, str… (View Post)

You're right! Forget everything I've said. Sorry about that :( (View Post)

On reflection I think you are right. In May 2021, Labour nationally was on 35%, now 27%, down 8% points. Con was on 42%, now 26%, down 16% points. My revised guess is: Con lose 700 to 1645 Lab lose 3… (View Post)

I think there is zero chance that Reform end up with more seats than the Tories but 100% chance that Reform will GAIN more seats than the Tories. My current best guess, looking at the relative shares… (View Post)