I wonder if anyone has ever stated, (and they surely must have done), the following: to be good at making predictions, you need to be sufficiently interested in a topic to be objective, but not so in… (View Post)

Just feeling sorry, more than anything, for the people on Twitter making fools of themselves over Kemi's election. (View Post)

Probably not a great day for Jolyon from the point of view of forecasts. (View Post)

My guess is Kemi won by a large margin in the south-east and London, with Jenrick winning more narrowly in the rest of the country. (View Post)

With legendary modesty, my prediction of 55/45 to Badenoch was pretty good. Maybe it's time to turn attention to doing a US election spreadsheet, which I've been too lazy to start so far. (View Post)