It would be refreshing if the "lockdown sceptics" ever admitted error. - There are no excess deaths from covid in March/April - The excess deaths aren't actually that high; they were s… (View Post)

Good point. I'll update it every Thursday after the ONS survey is updated. This will cause the translucent grey bars to alter; in order to have the ability to measure against the earlier version… (View Post)

I think so. The peak is very close to the March/April peak, and we stayed (just?) within hospital capacity then. It does imply that they acted not a moment too soon. Another week (if - and it's … (View Post)

Early in the wave, it gave an extrapolated IFR of 0.25%-0.3%. Unfortunately, this migrated up to around 0.65% again within a month. Over the same period, the ICNARC stats showed the median age of tho… (View Post)

With all the talk about models this morning, I did a quick'n'dirty simplistic model to try to work out how many deaths are already baked in. First graph: Using ONS stats for infections per … (View Post)