There is a very hardhearted way of looking at it that lack of immunity in a fraction of the population due to vaccine hesitancy is an unstable situation that resolves itself over time. Either we have… (View Post)

Pretty small. Despite the comments about covid being usually asympomatic, it isn't. People conflated pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic together rather too easily (there was once a news story that… (View Post)

The “Oxford lot” was almost solely Sunetra Gupta on her own, and she was obviously isolated from late March onwards. I don’t think she’s ever admitted how horrifically wrong she was; she’s doubled do… (View Post)

Ferguson's projections. If we do nothing, death toll between 410,000-550,000 dependent on actual R0 (estimated between 2.0 and 2.6) The various interventions and triggers for rolling lockdowns (… (View Post)

Which season in particular? The key variable is simply mobility. The more people are moving around, the more likely an infection is, and the higher R will be. And vice versa. If sufficient people red… (View Post)