I'm personally guessing 30-40%, but that's also wet finger in the air. (Based on the 16-24s with antibodies at the start of March, which was prior to most of them having any chance for a ja… (View Post)

Please don't take that as gospel - it's pretty much a wet finger in the air based on a lot of crude assumptions about what happens to the various buckets of potential hosts. (NB: If it prov… (View Post)

Hmm. I did throw together a crude quick'n'dirty model to get an idea of how many people in each of five buckets (under-16, 16-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50+) should be potential spreaders and how it… (View Post)

I don’t know if it’s already been mentioned, but in addition to the “let’s not overload the NHS in flu season” reason for having the wave now, as I understand it, there’s another crucial one: oversho… (View Post)

I rather default to assume insecurity on his behalf. (View Post)