I mean, on the negative effects of school closures: " Date: 4 March 2020 1. SPI-B have a consensus view that school closures will be highly disruptive and likely to present an unequal burden to … (View Post)

The thing is - the modelling always included loads of these as options and possibilities. The media always leapt on the most dramatic one and put it forwards, and it was from both ends. Some to try t… (View Post)

You assume the IFR was 0.2%? Well - we know the population of England is a bit of 56 million. Of whom, about 10% had covid by mid-December. 80,000 covid deaths in England by end of December (not usin… (View Post)

My overall stance: Lockdown 1 was likely inescapable as we found out what was involved. Lockdowns 2 and 3 could likely have been avoided by going harder on Tiers (to Tier 3 as the default), improving… (View Post)

Frankly, I don't believe Sunak. He's made too many statements on this direction that are obviously in conflict with previously published stuff. For example, we know there were long detailed discussio… (View Post)