NB: The Labour leads in 1963 ranged from 8 to 20.5 points. This year they have ranged from 10 points to 30 points. Over 30% of the Labour leads this year have been in excess of the greatest Labour le… (View Post)

We could probably come up with an xkcd-style one of our own. If we do exclude 1918-and-before as well as 1931 and 1945, we can have: 1922 - it was vanishingly unlikely for a third party to leapfrog i… (View Post)

1966 - Going from a narrow majority to a landslide had only happened once before; lightning doesn't strike twice. But it did this time. 1970 - You don't go from a working majority for one party to a … (View Post)

One thing that jumps out is that this exact argument could have been made in early 1997 to show that the chances of Blair getting a huge landslide majority in the then-imminent election were actually… (View Post)

Very true. In 2021, I plotted the death rate (from death certificates as primary cause) against infection incidence (from the ONS regular study) to get a rough guide to changes in IFR. (Can only be r… (View Post)