While I agree with the main thrust of David's piece - that there remains a chance of blowing it at the last moment by going too far too fast with restrictions easing - I think there's more … (View Post)

Personally, my view is that with the step-change in testing, the baseline is not comparable for at least a week. The fact that cases haven't spiked when testing doubled is enormously encouraging… (View Post)

False positive rates on LFTs can't be higher than the total positive rate. For the 8th of March (latest date to be sure almost all data is in), there were 1,481,812 LFTs given in England to prov… (View Post)

Very positive about this so far. As you say - erosion of transmission is a sliding scale, and with the vaccinated-for-three weeks plus even conservative estimates of the infected-and-recovered, we�… (View Post)

Don't want to send hares running, and I could be being way overoptimistic, but remembering the analogy with bankruptcy for vaccination effects, I wouldn't be surprised if we were consistent… (View Post)