That's fraught, though. I looked at some of the differences yesterday, and the MRPs from different companies have HUGE differences. Way beyond any feasible MoE. Someone on TwiX looked deeper: "A… (View Post)

That can fall down when a local party decides not to play along. Who would you consider best placed in a seat with: Previous notionals of Con 50, LD 31, Lab 16 County Council representation of Con 5,… (View Post)

MRP-wise, the difference between firms makes normal polling differences seem tiny in comparison. I suppose the model and method used makes a huge difference, which makes them a bit fraught to use (no… (View Post)

Are there any seats that the Lib Dems can target? I had thought that targeting Didcot and Wantage wasn't too presumptuous. After all, it's the 22nd closest Tory target in the country for the Lib Dems… (View Post)

Yeah, this MRP is so extreme that it breaks past my plausibility filter. And I'm usually set up to accept extreme outcomes. We know that "All models are wrong, but some are useful," of cour… (View Post)