This, by the way, is not remotely a criticism of the extended-gap/first dose strategy. So it doesn't decrease R by a big chunk immediately and only prevents c.60% of symptomatic infections. That… (View Post)

We've given ONE dose, not two. The effect of one dose brings down hospitalisations a long way (but not as far as two doses) and retards transmission and infection to an extent - but nowhere near… (View Post)

I do, though, feel that the outside activity relaxation could well be brought forwards. The indications are very strong that outside activity is far far lower risk (not zero risk, but considerably lo… (View Post)

Exactly this. By the way, here’s a possibly overoptimistic prediction: the macro-effect of the vaccines decreasing R will be considerably greater than the individual effects. That is, case transmissi… (View Post)

- "England's chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty says the rates of people falling ill with coronavirus is continuing to fall, and although it is "going down more slowly" this … (View Post)