Indeed. I took a look at the England Ages data. It's the drop in the ages 20-40 that drives Lilco's stat. Which has been profound. But cases in every single age group over 40 are at the Jul… (View Post)

It takes it from around 20% chance of reinfection to about 5%. Similarly with transmission. (View Post)

One annoying error that seems to be occurring right now is the slow booster rollout and teen vaccinations. We were really good at this in the first half of the year. But these vaccinations are going … (View Post)

I think that actually ended up helping. He went around shaking hands and blatantly flouting the recommendations early on. Then ended up in an ICU. I mean, as an example, you can't fault it. (View Post)

Nope; it’s not that. If the 38,000 were distributed evenly as per the age distribution of the country (they’re not; they’re skewed far younger), you’d expect 20-30 such deaths. With the young skew we… (View Post)