Do you genuinely not grasp the problem of the hospitals getting overwhelmed? You seem to believe that the death rates we see across the various age bands are like a law of nature, rather than the res… (View Post)

I don’t believe we’ve had sufficient time to train up many extra doctors or nurses, and that’s the key constraint. Where we’re supposed to have 1:1 nurse to ICU patients, we’ve gone to 1:3 and even 1… (View Post)

40,000 a day is a little under 15 million per year. If that’s a quote for the UK, it’s a touch implausible. It would imply 22% of the population dying in any given year, and an average life expectanc… (View Post)

I am, to be fair, running on the assumption that vaccination significantly decreases (at least) transmission, and thus the level of restrictions against any given required decrease in R will be chang… (View Post)

Cases fell from averaging in the low twenties of thousands in early to mid November to low teens of thousands by early December, and climbed rapidly through the twenties and thirties through mid Dece… (View Post)