From everything I’ve seen: The lowest risk on face-to-face education is primary schools. Return them on 8th of March. Outside interactions seem to be minimal risk. Look at doing what you can with tho… (View Post)

Release all restrictions and if everyone goes back to normal, R goes to somewhere between 3 and 4. Doubling in 4 days or so. Quadrupling in 8. Eightfold in under a fortnight - by which time people wo… (View Post)

Just a point: we’re nowhere near the numbers in hospital and ICU we were at the end of May We’ve got more than twice as many in hospital and three times as many in ICU than we did then. Although admi… (View Post)

According to ICNARC, about 60. About a quarter are under 50 and an eighth under 40. If the under 60s are unvaccinated, then one doubling takes ICU case numbers over current levels even if all over-60… (View Post)

There's a couple of teeny tiny flaws there. "The IFR is 0.23%" Which means that 78% of the UK had had the virus by late January, which would be a bit of a relief. They're repeatin… (View Post)