I did do a quick-and-dirty model based on the antibody level from two weeks ago, and assuming one dose or prior infection impairs transmission by 60%, while two doses or infection-plus-one-dose impai… (View Post)

There were a number of issues with the Friston model. First was his definition of herd immunity, which seemed to be simply "R is currently below 1". He added and emphasised that if we reduc… (View Post)

There seems to be a lot of anger at not instantly unlocking completely. We have to remember: 1 - We are not at herd immunity yet. If we were, the ONS infection figures would be dropping at 70%+ per w… (View Post)

And the scary thing is; they're right. People want to believe the dramatic or scary stuff, they don't care about the basic numbers (unless they support their preconceptions; if they do, the… (View Post)

Looks like they've got the timing of the shift towards second doses in the elderly pretty good overall, from the ONS antibody survey. Antibody levels have been starting to fall off in the single… (View Post)