Disagree with your premise. The risk delta between 13-17 year olds and 18-24 year olds is minimal. Given that 6,000+ children have already been hospitalised with covid in this country with about a th… (View Post)

It also assumes a very long time to death from infection (25 days); most other people work off 19-20 days or so. Looking at case rates (which he seems to slide past for the second and third ones), I … (View Post)

Taking the England-only figures, and hospitalisations from August onwards, and assuming a 10 day lag between cases and hospitalisations, I get: Maximum Case Hospitalisation Rate: 12.1% (December); we… (View Post)

No he didn't. "We do not consider the ethical or economic implications of either strategy here, except to note that there is no easy policy decision to be made. Suppression, while successfu… (View Post)

Because that was unmitigated bollocks that got passed around social media by denialist idiots who wanted to believe it and so never bothered checking it. https://theferret.scot/fact-check-neil-fergus… (View Post)