You know how R refers to how many people each infectee goes on to infect? Like an R of 3 means Patient Zero infects three, who go on to infect three each (so a total of 9 at second remove) and then 2… (View Post)

With a ten day lag, and using the ONS infections estimates for infections, and the hospital admissions for England multiplied by the ratio of "in hospital primarily for covid/all hospital beds o… (View Post)

It was in there, as it made clear, because they’d just had a surge of R=1.5 in Scotland and therefore couldn’t rule it out as a scenario for the UK as a whole. So they put it as the highest plausible… (View Post)

Then I'd blame those telling the people that this is the issue without a fair grasp on what SAGE and SPI-M-O are doing, or their terms of reference, or the specifics of decision making during a perio… (View Post)

IF the hospitalisation rate remains constant, then we should see something like 300-330 for the 19th, 440-470 for the 20th, and 600+ for the 21st and 22nd. And we're now looking at the period where O… (View Post)