Option B. Calculate the complement each time. Chance of failure on first dip with Option A is 3 in 4. Second dip is a separate bag, so 3 in 4 chance of failure again. Chance of failure in both is 3*3… (View Post)

Unfortunately, rebuttals aren't newsworthy, apparently. I spent ten minutes accumulating a fraction of the rebuttals from serving doctors: https://twitter.com/KingsICUSupport/status/14797916461370613… (View Post)

Or might not. This has been looked at since the pandemic began (and was a keystone of first Mike Yeadon and then Toby Young's argument that the pandemic was over as of October 2020) [Narrator's voice… (View Post)

And the smilies can't jump on it, either, because it would mean admitting that Ferguson was right in March 2020. (Well, technically, the estimate of 500,000 was wrong, but in the low direction) (View Post)

Too many people take their information from outlets like Toby Young's Daily Skeptic, or from Julia Hartley-Brewer, or listen to journalists like Allison Pearson. And are disposed to believe the worst… (View Post)