One important thing we need to do is get vaccinating the areas of the world that are less vaccinated (eg Africa). The more we can reduce the prevalence of covid worldwide, the fewer parallel processo… (View Post)

My personal stance starts with: what would we do if we started from here? Omicron for the vaccinated seems to be between a common cold and earlier covid. Which is a wide range, of course. My impressi… (View Post)

Indeed. Looking back at hospitalisations and working back, I think R levelled off at around 1 after about the Saturday prior to lockdown (a few days before it). To be fair, restaurants, bars, clubs, … (View Post)

I'd suggest that Ferguson was in error in the low direction, to be honest. The IFR in practice was higher than he and his team assumed, as was R. The key table for what would happen unmitigated, with… (View Post)

Those here, however, are not the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, entering fraught diplomatic negotiations with the Russians over events on the border of Russia and Ukraine. We have not been … (View Post)