A 9% swing would indeed. A 9% swing from Con to LD requires Con to drop 9% (which you have shown) AND Lib Dems to increase by 9%. Which you have not shown. To be honest, if the Lib Dems were polling … (View Post)

It appears that in an endemic state (including with waves), the number of times per year on average people get infected is approximately 52/(duration_infectiousness+duration_effective_immunity), wher… (View Post)

Although I am unqualified to make the following assumption, if a booster dose re-boosts immunity by exactly as much as an infection, then the effects of an annual booster dose available to the entire… (View Post)

I'm sorry. As @turbotubbs points out, there are factors that could shift the endemic levels downwards. If the Government do get moving on HEPA and far-UV air filters, indoors could be almost as safe … (View Post)

Thanks :blush: (View Post)