It's not comparing like with like - those headline figures are wildly different in terms of total deaths covered. For us, the Italians and the Dutch the total excess death count is around double thos… (View Post)

Latest: (View Post)

Another good one, includes rest of UK figures per day, and also all covid-registered deaths outside hospital: https://twitter.com/jpscott1972/status/1254763191013384192/photo/1 (View Post)

It's an excellent piece. This sort of thing gives me optimism for the 2nd wave - even if we don't have a vaccine or some miracle treatment drug, we'll have drastically better information to craft pol… (View Post)

Was bored so ran the daily ICL model updates - estimate is currently 20k daily infections. That compares to 250k (!!!) pre lockdown, and about 85k just after. If 0.5% IFR, that means down to 100 deat… (View Post)