AlwaysSinging

It's different for smaller figures. Broadly, the margin of error is proportional to the square root of p(1-p), where p is the proportion (between 0 and 1) that you are estimating. And for very small … (View Post)

This extremely unfair. There are indeed a few with extreme views -- both vehemently pro- and anti-lockdown -- who argue backwards from the conclusion. They have a loud voice because they tend to appe… (View Post)

Another factor is how one attributes a death to a cause. Suppose that an infected hospital patient is discharged to a care home, infects an agency-staffed carer but nobody else, and then the carer go… (View Post)

That's also my sense. The effect of the May 17th changes will need careful study; although I think they could have safely pushed that date a week or two forward, the 5 week gap to the next set of cha… (View Post)

We do seem to be at herd immunity for current levels of mixing. R is only a little below 1, so perhaps not quite there yet for unrestricted mixing, but not too far off. Although I tend to be cautious… (View Post)