It also assumes that vaccination is 100% effective in preventing hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, though. ICU admissions will be the limiting factor -- as indeed has been predicted right fr… (View Post)

But ONS excludes people in care homes and university halls, as well as children. Their totals (as opposed to fractions) should be an underestimate of true cases. I think ZOE is estimating cases in th… (View Post)

I expect in practice few Universities would be able to have many students back in before Easter: mine is already committed to waiting until after. I imagine that international students will have to e… (View Post)

Yes, I saw that. A powerful result, so I'd want to see it replicated. Immune response is complicated, so who can say what happens with various combinations of vaccine and acquired immunity. There's a… (View Post)

That would be a little disappointing. More death and disease would be prevented by getting on with some of groups 5-6 now, but if you're right then politics is causing them to do the suboptimal thing… (View Post)