An increase? That does suggest good news for Hall... (View Post)

Not sure there's such a clear pattern - hardly any drop in Greenwich & Lewisham (and just announced Enfield & Haringey), which are pretty strongly Labour. Really, the constituencies are too b… (View Post)

I suspect that Houchen's been up all night, which might account for some of the difference in demeanour - but, yes, the contrast was startling, wasn't it? (View Post)

It'll be a good indication of how good Labour's spin game is. They have an unambiguously good result to trumpet, and it ought to be the most significant result of the night, Can they broadcast this m… (View Post)

That understates it. I count only 4 by-elections with >20% swing in the 1992-7 parliament, and only 1 with >25%. (View Post)