And a key word in the quote from the Nature paper is 'symptomatic', which will reduce the overall infection mortality rate further. (View Post)

I think we will go into the extreme lockdown a little earlier. And the number of fatalities could be a touch higher. But otherwise I agree - with shorter, sharper (but total) lockdowns future iterati… (View Post)

Depressingly, friends say the same is also true in Germany - with groups of younger people congregating outdoors. Amongst some people, there is a delusional sense of invincibility everywhere. (View Post)

From the Veneto, a couple of pieces of slightly better news - slightly fewer new cases today (505 vs 586 and 547 the last two days) and also two fewer people, overall, in the ICUs across the region. (View Post)