Yip - we are through 1 and, in Europe, about halfway through 2. 3 is on the way (probably worse in some places than others, but bad everywhere) and 4 is what I fear most. (View Post)

Sadly, the numbers in Spain (in terms of new cases) will get worse until early next week if they follow the pattern of Italy / Wuhan before improving. It's likely going to be painful the next few day… (View Post)

Not sure I agree with you. Even with a widespread epidemic, the burden of cases on the NHS, if left unchecked, would be intolerable. By locking down, even if there are many asymptomatic cases (and I … (View Post)

I'd strongly recommend David Spiegelhalter (professor of risk at Cambridge). A really good statistician who writes very accessibly. (View Post)

Absolutely agreed re a vaccine. I hope that the lockdown yesterday (with the previous social distancing over the previous days) has just about come on time. (View Post)