Sorry to hear about the PM and Rayner (as well as all those infected). Regarding Spain, the health minister has stated that they are approaching the peak - since their lockdown has been a bit more se… (View Post)

Slightly shocked to read that 855 nursing home residents in Madrid are amongst those who have died (21% of the total in Spain). That really suggests that once this gets into a nursing home the fatali… (View Post)

Not sure I understand. If we lockdown for 4-6 weeks cases should diminish to a very low level and eventually come close to fizzling out. Now, new cases will arise moving forward, but with better ther… (View Post)

No it's not - there were 6557 new cases on March 21. (View Post)

On reflection, I think we should not expect a peak but rather a plateau. This reflects the (stochastic) latency of the disease. A plateau over a week or so should likely then be followed by a fall. I… (View Post)