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felix
Posts: 15,180
Unfortunately you missed the bit where I said 'the other week'. I'm thinking you cannot read.IanB2 said:
I’m thinking you can’t read a graph. Zoom out a bit.felix said:
You do understand the point but choose not to admit it because it does not suit your agenda.williamglenn said:
What do you want the news to say? Sterling is below where it was a month ago.felix said:I note - alone on here - that sterling has recovered all of its losses from the other week against the Euro. Interestingly it does not feature at all on any of the news channels or among the myriad of people on here who were so worried when its decline was heralded as the ruination of all foreign holidays as well as forcing elderly Brits in Europe back to blighty pronto. Funny that....
0 -
malcolmg
Posts: 44,020
Out of our pocket moneyPhilip_Thompson said:
Hoping and getting are two very different things.MikeSmithson said:
Nicola obviosly hoping that this will be reciprocated for Scots people when visiting the EU. Then she'll have another area where you get a better deal being ScottishRobD said:
If OTOH she doesn't get reciprocity but still has to pay for it then where are those funds coming from?0 -
Beibheirli_C
Posts: 8,192
Go to the Duke of York pub in "The Entries" near St Anne's Cathedral. If you are feeling cerebral then go to the University, Botanic Gardens and the Ulster Museum (free entry)viewcode said:
I'm going there in a couple of weeks for RSS 2019. I'm really excited, I get to go on a plane and everything! Any recommendations for other things to see?The_Taxman said:I would just like to say what an awsome afternoon i have had in Belfast. I went to Stormont parliament and the building the way it crowns the hillside projects power! If SeanT was there it would have given him the horn!
I went on a tour of the building and really enjoyed it. Political figures past and present were mentioned and although i did not really learn much new information, it was a real pleasure to be involved a process that enhances political awareness. The buildings from an architectural standpoint are impresive as well throughtout Belfast. I went around Belfast city hall as well and that is stunning inside. I prefer the inside to say Manchester city hall for instance. But Manchester city hall is stunning even though it has a different style. I seem to like political buildings as well as the business inside them.0 -
IanB2
Posts: 51,057
If it comes off it could easily contain members from almost every political party. Except perhaps the DUP.Gabs2 said:
It is not even correct. A government of national unity means all the main party leaders come together. This is being done to explictly exclude one party. A GRU or governnent of Remainer unity is more accurate.MrsB said:I think people are confused because Jo Swinson has skipped over a few moves in the chess game by ruling out Corbyn now instead of making general noises in favour of a VONC and GNU.*
VONC and GNU. God, this is a terrible time for new expressions0 -
malcolmg
Posts: 44,020
Rank Amateur and promoted well above her capabilities.MarqueeMark said:
Not been a great day for Swinson, has it?Stereotomy said:
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:
Amateur.....0 -
DecrepitJohnL
Posts: 13,300
What do Boris Johnson, the Duchess of Sussex and a very successful former Manchester United manager have in common? Not much, on the face of it. But they do share a penchant for one thing – red wine. A specific red, to be precise.Nigelb said:
With all the random spaffing going on, I have no idea.viewcode said:
It could equally be Boris' red wine supply
Last week, when Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid visited the Prime Minister at Chequers, he brought with him "a stash" of Tignanello. If you haven't heard of it, you're not alone. Boris, however, has been a fan for some time.
During his leadership campaign, he told Politico Playbook: "Someone bought me a crate of Tignanello and I had no idea how expensive it was. I was just glugging it back. It's extraordinary stuff, it was delicious. I discovered later that it was the favourite wine of Meghan Markle. I was so amazed by this wine, I thought, 'What is this stuff?'"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/food-and-drink/news/meghan-boris-love-special-tignanello-flash-new-wine-status-symbol/0 -
surbiton19
Posts: 1,469
So why are we releasing the Iranian ship now when one month ago they could not ?0 -
StuartDickson
Posts: 12,146
I reluctantly concur. All the evidence points to the Lib Dems preferring their own advancement rather than preventing No Deal. What a bunch of chancers.NickPalmer said:
No, it's exactly what I proposed in my Labour List article last week (and I like to think that I helped prompt it). There is nothing there limiting a referendum to an outright majority - if, as seems likely, we got another hung Parliament, Labour would be committed to a referendum with a Remain option; if enough other MPs agreed, the referendum would follow. Clearly, the Tories might win the alection, but that's democratic risk.Cyclefree said:
Corbyn’s offer is less than it seems. The caretaker government is not there for the purpose of having a referendum with a Remain option. No. It is there for the purpose of a GE and only if Labour win an outright majority will there be a referendum. Believe that and you’ll believe anything. If the Tories won the GE on a No Deal basis you’d be back where we are today. Only this time the No Dealers would have a fresh mandate. Or there could be yet another hung Parliament.Scott_P said:
Swinson's response is pure politics, since she must be aware that organising a second referendum before October 31 is literally impossible. The LibDems seem more interested in scoring points than actually preventing No Deal.0 -
Beibheirli_C
Posts: 8,192
As predicted earlier... "She can always recant and say she tried, but her back is to the wall and the only hope for NoDeal is to tolerate a Corbyn GNU...."Scott_P said:They have been reading PB...
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1162045864476577798
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2440747/#Comment_24407470 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
I'm sure they will!Stereotomy said:
I look forward to hearing from those who were earlier saying that ruling out working with Corbyn was a brilliant political strategy, on how this reverse ferret is also a brilliant political strategy.MarqueeMark said:
Not been a great day for Swinson, has it?Stereotomy said:
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:
Amateur.....0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
There's a reason that most chess players don't consider "skipping moves" to be a good strategy.MrsB said:I think people are confused because Jo Swinson has skipped over a few moves in the chess game by ruling out Corbyn now instead of making general noises in favour of a VONC and GNU.*
VONC and GNU. God, this is a terrible time for new expressions0 -
malcolmg
Posts: 44,020
Two bit numpty with delusions of grandeur after being picked to lead a handful of donkeysCarlottaVance said:0 -
viewcode
Posts: 24,076
I'm going there in a couple of weeks for RSS 2019. I'm really excited, I get to go on a plane and everything! Any recommendations for other things to see?The_Taxman said:I would just like to say what an awsome afternoon i have had in Belfast. I went to Stormont parliament and the building the way it crowns the hillside projects power! If SeanT was there it would have given him the horn!
I went on a tour of the building and really enjoyed it. Political figures past and present were mentioned and although i did not really learn much new information, it was a real pleasure to be involved a process that enhances political awareness. The buildings from an architectural standpoint are impresive as well throughtout Belfast. I went around Belfast city hall as well and that is stunning inside. I prefer the inside to say Manchester city hall for instance. But Manchester city hall is stunning even though it has a different style. I seem to like political buildings as well as the business inside them.0 -
malcolmg
Posts: 44,020
He is also crap thoughBeibheirli_C said:Harriet Harman was a temporary leader of Labour IIRC, but surely Tom Watson is the man? Deputy Leader and already building many links across party lines.
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Gabs2
Posts: 1,268
It is not even correct. A government of national unity means all the main party leaders come together. This is being done to explictly exclude one party. A GRU or governnent of Remainer unity is more accurate.MrsB said:I think people are confused because Jo Swinson has skipped over a few moves in the chess game by ruling out Corbyn now instead of making general noises in favour of a VONC and GNU.*
VONC and GNU. God, this is a terrible time for new expressions0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
I look forward to hearing from those who were earlier saying that ruling out working with Corbyn was a brilliant political strategy, on how this reverse ferret is also a brilliant political strategy.MarqueeMark said:
Not been a great day for Swinson, has it?Stereotomy said:
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:
Amateur.....0 -
viewcode
Posts: 24,076
Unfortunately I agree with you, hence my reference to alternatehistory earlier today.YBarddCwsc said:
Indeed. The thread reads like a Remainer fantasy, with ever more absurd & fantastic people being proposed for a GONU. (Liz Saville Roberts -- she has only been in Parliament for 4 years!)Sandpit said:So, if Johnson and Corbyn are both opposed to a proposed government of “unity” (sic), where do the proposers get 200 defectors from the two largest parties for their majority in a vote of confidence.
I could just about see a couple of dozen MPs willing to commit almost certain career suicide over Brexit, but there’s no chance of a couple of hundred doing so.
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MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
Let's hope they don't have lawyers, eh?viewcode said:
I know @Casino_Royale likes it , but IMHO the Spectator is an employment agency for unemployable people of poor moral character who can be relied upon to slap the keyboard for any right-wing bollocks in between drug use, repeated masturbation and torturing small animals.Chris said:
Such a motion - specifying a date - would have no effect under the FTPA. The motion has to be simply "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election."MikeSmithson said:
But he would have to get this through the Commons with 433 MPs voting for. That is far from certain given that this would look lie a device to avoid the CommonsGIN1138 said:This is what I've been saying would happen:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/why-october-10th-is-boris-johnsons-best-bet-for-a-snap-election/
Boris does a Theresa and calls a general election on the day Parliament returns on 4th September.
"Johnson, however, can pre-empt such manoeuvres on September 4 when Parliament returns by tabling a motion for an early general election, to be held on October 10.
This date is opportune for two reasons. First, Parliament would dissolve by law on September 5. This immediately eliminates the threat of MPs taking control of parliamentary time, keeping the exit date of October 31 intact.
Second, this election date comes a week before the EU Council summit. If his gamble pays off and he were to win a majority, the PM would have the strong negotiating position required to obtain a new deal. If the EU still refuses to budge, the Government could spend the final weeks passing relevant no-deal legislation to minimise disruption before Britain leaves the EU."
If we laymen are aware of the terms of the FTPA, why isn't Mr Alexander Pelling-Bruce of the Spectator? Do they not allow him Internet access at work for some reason?0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
Uh oh, I see vanilla added a new button under our comments. How many things do you think they broke implementing that?0
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Gabs2
Posts: 1,268
Yes!MarqueeMark said:
For September 1st, read November 1st?Gabs2 said:
So it looks like what will happen is:Scott_P said:They have been reading PB...
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1162045864476577798
1. Successful Vote of No Confidence in Boris
2. Attempt to put Corbyn in, which fails.
3. Attempt to put Swinson in, which fails.
4. Attempt to put Clarke in, which fails.
5. 14 days run out, Boris calls election for September 1st.
6. No Deal Brexit.
And all because a bunch of partisans and ideologues refused to vote for a deal that would have stopped all the strife.0 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
For September 1st, read November 1st?Gabs2 said:
So it looks like what will happen is:Scott_P said:They have been reading PB...
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1162045864476577798
1. Successful Vote of No Confidence in Boris
2. Attempt to put Corbyn in, which fails.
3. Attempt to put Swinson in, which fails.
4. Attempt to put Clarke in, which fails.
5. 14 days run out, Boris calls election for September 1st.
6. No Deal Brexit.
And all because a bunch of partisans and ideologues refused to vote for a deal that would have stopped all the strife.0 -
Yorkcity
Posts: 4,382
Well put.Stereotomy said:
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:
If stopping a no deal Brexit is her main priority.
Swinson should agree with Lucas and Sturgeon in considering Corbyn's plan.0 -
Beibheirli_C
Posts: 8,192
It is one of the world's largest aircraft (only the An-225 is bigger, but there is only one of them). Perhaps Boris is indulging in an aircraft version of "Men with the biggest cars have the smallest ....." ???Nigelb said:
With all the random spaffing going on, I have no idea.viewcode said:
It could equally be Boris' red wine supply0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
The problem with the 2nd referendum before election idea is that it means the caretaker PM being in power for a long time.alex. said:I don’t understand how a proposal that involves Parliament VONCing Johnson, whilst he still claims to be angling for a deal, installing Corbyn as PM to negotiate an extension and then call an immediate election, is a reliable “anti Brexit” strategy. Installing Corbyn to the legislate for a referendum, maybe, but not an election in circumstances of which would be a Johnson dream scenario (to the extent that one exists)
But you're right that it's not a reliable strategy. It's a roll of the dice, which they'd consider better than just giving up and letting Boris take us out with No Deal.0 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
Not been a great day for Swinson, has it?Stereotomy said:
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:
Amateur.....0 -
IanB2
Posts: 51,057
I’m thinking you can’t read a graph. Zoom out a bit.felix said:
You do understand the point but choose not to admit it because it does not suit your agenda.williamglenn said:
What do you want the news to say? Sterling is below where it was a month ago.felix said:I note - alone on here - that sterling has recovered all of its losses from the other week against the Euro. Interestingly it does not feature at all on any of the news channels or among the myriad of people on here who were so worried when its decline was heralded as the ruination of all foreign holidays as well as forcing elderly Brits in Europe back to blighty pronto. Funny that....
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Philip_Thompson
Posts: 65,826
Hoping and getting are two very different things.MikeSmithson said:
Nicola obviosly hoping that this will be reciprocated for Scots people when visiting the EU. Then she'll have another area where you get a better deal being ScottishRobD said:
If OTOH she doesn't get reciprocity but still has to pay for it then where are those funds coming from?0 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
No 50-1 Presidential hope for OGH in 2020?Stereotomy said:
And he was so close!Scott_P said:0 -
alex.
Posts: 4,658
I don’t understand how a proposal that involves Parliament VONCing Johnson, whilst he still claims to be angling for a deal, installing Corbyn as PM to negotiate an extension and then call an immediate election, is a reliable “anti Brexit” strategy. Installing Corbyn to the legislate for a referendum, maybe, but not an election in circumstances of which would be a Johnson dream scenario (to the extent that one exists)0 -
viewcode
Posts: 24,076
I know @Casino_Royale likes it , but IMHO the Spectator is an employment agency for unemployable people of poor moral character who can be relied upon to slap the keyboard for any right-wing bollocks in between drug use, repeated masturbation and torturing small animals.Chris said:
Such a motion - specifying a date - would have no effect under the FTPA. The motion has to be simply "That there shall be an early parliamentary general election."MikeSmithson said:
But he would have to get this through the Commons with 433 MPs voting for. That is far from certain given that this would look lie a device to avoid the CommonsGIN1138 said:This is what I've been saying would happen:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/why-october-10th-is-boris-johnsons-best-bet-for-a-snap-election/
Boris does a Theresa and calls a general election on the day Parliament returns on 4th September.
"Johnson, however, can pre-empt such manoeuvres on September 4 when Parliament returns by tabling a motion for an early general election, to be held on October 10.
This date is opportune for two reasons. First, Parliament would dissolve by law on September 5. This immediately eliminates the threat of MPs taking control of parliamentary time, keeping the exit date of October 31 intact.
Second, this election date comes a week before the EU Council summit. If his gamble pays off and he were to win a majority, the PM would have the strong negotiating position required to obtain a new deal. If the EU still refuses to budge, the Government could spend the final weeks passing relevant no-deal legislation to minimise disruption before Britain leaves the EU."
If we laymen are aware of the terms of the FTPA, why isn't Mr Alexander Pelling-Bruce of the Spectator? Do they not allow him Internet access at work for some reason?1 -
RobD
Posts: 60,328
That seems unlikely to happen.MikeSmithson said:
Nicola obviosly hoping that this will be reciprocated for Scots people when visiting the EU. Then she'll have another area where you get a better deal being ScottishRobD said:0 -
MrsB
Posts: 574
I think people are confused because Jo Swinson has skipped over a few moves in the chess game by ruling out Corbyn now instead of making general noises in favour of a VONC and GNU.*
VONC and GNU. God, this is a terrible time for new expressions0 -
Gabs2
Posts: 1,268
So it looks like what will happen is:Scott_P said:They have been reading PB...
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1162045864476577798
1. Successful Vote of No Confidence in Boris
2. Attempt to put Corbyn in, which fails.
3. Attempt to put Swinson in, which fails.
4. Attempt to put Clarke in, which fails.
5. 14 days run out, Boris calls election for September 1st.
6. No Deal Brexit.
And all because a bunch of partisans and ideologues refused to vote for a deal that would have stopped all the strife.0 -
MikeSmithson
Posts: 7,382
Nicola obviosly hoping that this will be reciprocated for Scots people when visiting the EU. Then she'll have another area where you get a better deal being ScottishRobD said:0 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
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felix
Posts: 15,180
You do understand the point but choose not to admit it because it does not suit your agenda.williamglenn said:
What do you want the news to say? Sterling is below where it was a month ago.felix said:I note - alone on here - that sterling has recovered all of its losses from the other week against the Euro. Interestingly it does not feature at all on any of the news channels or among the myriad of people on here who were so worried when its decline was heralded as the ruination of all foreign holidays as well as forcing elderly Brits in Europe back to blighty pronto. Funny that....
0 -
MarqueeMark
Posts: 54,368
And whoever it is, there should be a vote between them and Boris - in case of buyers remorse.....GIN1138 said:
Confidnce vote for xyz???? LOL!eek said:
Corbyn is the intermediate step I suspect it goes:-Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
VoNC Boris
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails
Confidence vote for xyz (my guess is Beckett) wins.
Why not just draw straws to decide who is going to be Prime Minister of the country?
0 -
Scott_P
Posts: 51,453
Not if you can read and understand EnglishPhilip_Thompson said:Or it suggests he is ensuring nothing will go badly wrong.
0 -
Philip_Thompson
Posts: 65,826
Or it suggests he is ensuring nothing will go badly wrong.Scott_P said:
The original story is that BoZo is looking at additional capacity. Which suggests something has indeed gone badly wrong...viewcode said:Unless something had gone badly wrong, I think we have enough C17s and A400Ms to import vital medicines. Or am I missing something? Genuine question.
Better to be too prepared than not prepared enough. If only someone had explained this concept to Phil Hammond.0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
The backtrack begins. Of course if her only objection to Corbyn's plan really is that he can't command a majority, then logically she'd vote for him in the VOC. So now either she does that or exposes her blatant deceit and hypocrisy on no deal Brexit.Scott_P said:0 -
Philip_Thompson
Posts: 65,826
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IanB2
Posts: 51,057
Just one local by-election today, on the edge of Shrewsbury. The LibDems will be lucky to continue their unbroken record into a fourth week, as it looks safe Tory.0
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Scott_P
Posts: 51,453
The original story is that BoZo is looking at additional capacity. Which suggests something has indeed gone badly wrong...viewcode said:Unless something had gone badly wrong, I think we have enough C17s and A400Ms to import vital medicines. Or am I missing something? Genuine question.
0 -
Nigelb
Posts: 76,329
With all the random spaffing going on, I have no idea.viewcode said:
It could equally be Boris' red wine supply0 -
Big_G_NorthWales
Posts: 64,983
In my opinion call a second referendum and request 6 month delay with the EU to enable it.eek said:Question for anyone / everyone?
Were we to get a GONU should it fix the issue by extending and calling a GE or extending and calling a GE after a second No Deal / Revoke referendum.
For none Leave MPs I suspect the latter is a safer bet
A GE is unlikely to resolve anything and can follow in due course0 -
williamglenn
Posts: 54,649
What do you think would happen if Johnson announced an election on date x and then tried to change the date after winning the 2/3 vote?Chris said:
I accept that what you said was absurd - even if you can't bring yourself to admit it.williamglenn said:
I was attempting to show by reductio ad absurdum that your own argument was wrong. You seem to accept this.Chris said:
No - as you know, I am asking you about your crazy idea that a 2/3 vote for an election could be followed by a VONC and the appointment of another prime minister.williamglenn said:
The "original" idea is that it's politically impossible for him to renege on the date!Chris said:But you're not paying attention. What we're talking about is the "original" idea that if after the 2/3 vote, Johnson made the date 1 November, he could then be VONCed and the Queen could ask someone else to form a government!
0 -
Stereotomy
Posts: 4,092
Actually unless we find a way to explore alternate realities it's not possible that anyone will prove the strongest candidate to beat Trump.Nigelb said:
Except that it's entirely possible that she'll prove the strongest candidate to beat Trump.HYUFD said:
No, I have not as I have never said the Democrats will pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump as their desire for a populist left liberal candidate will come firstEndillion said:
You have strongly implied (some might say very strongly) that Warren can't win the nomination, on the grounds that everyone will eventually figure out that she can't beat Trump.HYUFD said:
In the general election yes but I have never disputed Warren can win the Democratic primaries then lose to TrumpFoxy said:
@HYUFD will be along shortly to say only grandpa Joe can win in the Midwest...Nigelb said:Interesting - Warren leads in Wisconsin poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457548-warren-leads-field-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-poll
True, it comes very late in the primary cycle, but that is nonetheless a significant result, assuming it's not a rogue poll.
Also a key swing state.
Still, you seem at least temporarily to have dropped the lazy 'elitist' caricature.0 -
Nigelb
Posts: 76,329
And that, a minor Agatha Christie.IanB2 said:
The emu is still missingviewcode said:
Goa, GONU, EU, emu, WA, FTA, EFTA, vonc.ydoethur said:
What would happen to poster who suggested that both of those were inferior to the Duke of Goa?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, thank you for reinforcing my point about your lack of historical understanding. No wonder you think Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.
It's almost poetry...0 -
Morris_Dancer
Posts: 62,431
Soon, the masses will be begging for their enormo-haddock overlords to assume full authority... mwahahahah!
And on that note, I must be off.0 -
GIN1138
Posts: 22,824
Confidnce vote for xyz???? LOL!eek said:
Corbyn is the intermediate step I suspect it goes:-Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
VoNC Boris
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails
Confidence vote for xyz (my guess is Beckett) wins.
Why not just draw straws to decide who is going to be Prime Minister of the country?
0 -
Big_G_NorthWales
Posts: 64,983
It is not as simple as that.Endillion said:
He has proposed a defacto GONU and it follows that if mps decide to support a neutral candidate who could succeed, he becomes isolated instantly0 -
Nigelb
Posts: 76,329
Sounds a bit like Schwitters' Ursonate.viewcode said:
Goa, GONU, EU, emu, WA, FTA, EFTA, vonc.ydoethur said:
What would happen to poster who suggested that both of those were inferior to the Duke of Goa?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, thank you for reinforcing my point about your lack of historical understanding. No wonder you think Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.
It's almost poetry...0 -
IanB2
Posts: 51,057
The emu is still missingviewcode said:
Goa, GONU, EU, emu, WA, FTA, EFTA, vonc.ydoethur said:
What would happen to poster who suggested that both of those were inferior to the Duke of Goa?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, thank you for reinforcing my point about your lack of historical understanding. No wonder you think Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.
It's almost poetry...0 -
viewcode
Posts: 24,076
FTPA! FTPA! It is not within his gift to do thatGIN1138 said:This is what I've been saying would happen:
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/why-october-10th-is-boris-johnsons-best-bet-for-a-snap-election/
Boris does a Theresa and calls a general election on the day Parliament returns on 4th September.
"Johnson, however, can pre-empt such manoeuvres on September 4 when Parliament returns by tabling a motion for an early general election, to be held on October 10.
This date is opportune for two reasons. First, Parliament would dissolve by law on September 5. This immediately eliminates the threat of MPs taking control of parliamentary time, keeping the exit date of October 31 intact.
Second, this election date comes a week before the EU Council summit. If his gamble pays off and he were to win a majority, the PM would have the strong negotiating position required to obtain a new deal. If the EU still refuses to budge, the Government could spend the final weeks passing relevant no-deal legislation to minimise disruption before Britain leaves the EU."
(Unless I've misunderstood, in which case apols)0 -
HYUFD
Posts: 126,771
Well she isn't at the moment, Biden and Sanders poll far more strongly agsinst Trump thsn her, especially Biden but if you think that will change in a year that is up to youNigelb said:
Except that it's entirely possible that she'll prove the strongest candidate to beat Trump.HYUFD said:
No, I have not as I have never said the Democrats will pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump as their desire for a populist left liberal candidate will come firstEndillion said:
You have strongly implied (some might say very strongly) that Warren can't win the nomination, on the grounds that everyone will eventually figure out that she can't beat Trump.HYUFD said:
In the general election yes but I have never disputed Warren can win the Democratic primaries then lose to TrumpFoxy said:
@HYUFD will be along shortly to say only grandpa Joe can win in the Midwest...Nigelb said:Interesting - Warren leads in Wisconsin poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457548-warren-leads-field-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-poll
True, it comes very late in the primary cycle, but that is nonetheless a significant result, assuming it's not a rogue poll.
Also a key swing state.
Still, you seem at least temporarily to have dropped the lazy 'elitist' caricature.0 -
eek
Posts: 29,650
Question for anyone / everyone?
Were we to get a GONU should it fix the issue by extending and calling a GE or extending and calling a GE after a second No Deal / Revoke referendum.
For none Leave MPs I suspect the latter is a safer bet0 -
Nigelb
Posts: 76,329
Except that it's entirely possible that she'll prove the strongest candidate to beat Trump.HYUFD said:
No, I have not as I have never said the Democrats will pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump as their desire for a populist left liberal candidate will come firstEndillion said:
You have strongly implied (some might say very strongly) that Warren can't win the nomination, on the grounds that everyone will eventually figure out that she can't beat Trump.HYUFD said:
In the general election yes but I have never disputed Warren can win the Democratic primaries then lose to TrumpFoxy said:
@HYUFD will be along shortly to say only grandpa Joe can win in the Midwest...Nigelb said:Interesting - Warren leads in Wisconsin poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457548-warren-leads-field-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-poll
True, it comes very late in the primary cycle, but that is nonetheless a significant result, assuming it's not a rogue poll.
Also a key swing state.
Still, you seem at least temporarily to have dropped the lazy 'elitist' caricature.0 -
viewcode
Posts: 24,076
Goa, GONU, EU, emu, WA, FTA, EFTA, vonc.ydoethur said:
What would happen to poster who suggested that both of those were inferior to the Duke of Goa?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, thank you for reinforcing my point about your lack of historical understanding. No wonder you think Caesar was a better general than Hannibal.
It's almost poetry...0 -
eek
Posts: 29,650
True but it's very unlikely provided the second candidate was also a Labour MP.Chris said:
The problem is that what might well happen is:eek said:
Corbyn is the intermediate step I suspect it goes:-Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
VoNC Boris
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails
Confidence vote for xyz (my guess is Beckett) wins.
VoNC Johnson
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails owing to insufficient support outside the Labour Party
Confidence vote in xyz fails owing to insufficient support inside the Labour party
No Deal
Margaret Beckett covers that way, way better than anyone else - not least because she is the reason Jeremy Corbyn had enough MPs to stand for the leadership.-1 -
Chris
Posts: 11,899
I accept that what you said was absurd - even if you can't bring yourself to admit it.williamglenn said:
I was attempting to show by reductio ad absurdum that your own argument was wrong. You seem to accept this.Chris said:
No - as you know, I am asking you about your crazy idea that a 2/3 vote for an election could be followed by a VONC and the appointment of another prime minister.williamglenn said:
The "original" idea is that it's politically impossible for him to renege on the date!Chris said:But you're not paying attention. What we're talking about is the "original" idea that if after the 2/3 vote, Johnson made the date 1 November, he could then be VONCed and the Queen could ask someone else to form a government!
0 -
Big_G_NorthWales
Posts: 64,983
He has said he will not stand but standing as Plaid would be a waste of time.tpfkar said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that definitely true? I thought that he had said he wouldn't stand as the Conservative candidate - quite a difference in the nuance.
It is a straight cons v labour seat and very marginal0 -
Chris
Posts: 11,899
The problem is that what might well happen is:eek said:
Corbyn is the intermediate step I suspect it goes:-Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
VoNC Boris
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails
Confidence vote for xyz (my guess is Beckett) wins.
VoNC Johnson
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails owing to insufficient support outside the Labour Party
Confidence vote in xyz fails owing to insufficient support inside the Labour party
No Deal0 -
HYUFD
Posts: 126,771
Thank youEndillion said:
I've tried to find evidence of my accusation and can't, so I withdraw it, with apologies.HYUFD said:
No, I have not as I have never said the Democrats will pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump as their desire for a populist left liberal candidate will come firstEndillion said:
You have strongly implied (some might say very strongly) that Warren can't win the nomination, on the grounds that everyone will eventually figure out that she can't beat Trump.HYUFD said:
In the general election yes but I have never disputed Warren can win the Democratic primaries then lose to TrumpFoxy said:
@HYUFD will be along shortly to say only grandpa Joe can win in the Midwest...Nigelb said:Interesting - Warren leads in Wisconsin poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457548-warren-leads-field-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-poll
True, it comes very late in the primary cycle, but that is nonetheless a significant result, assuming it's not a rogue poll.
Also a key swing state.0 -
Endillion
Posts: 4,976
-
Nigelb
Posts: 76,329
To whom it may concern....
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/aug/15/why-its-time-to-stop-worrying-about-the-decline-of-the-english-language
...The irony is, of course, that the pedants are the ones making the mistakes. To people who know how language works, pundits such as Douglas Rushkoff only end up sounding ignorant, having failed to really interrogate their views. What they are expressing are stylistic preferences – and that’s fine. I have my own, and can easily say “I hate the way this is written”, or even “this is badly written”. But that is shorthand: what is left off is “in my view” or “according to my stylistic preferences and prejudices, based on what I have been exposed to up to now, and particularly between the ages of five and 25”.
Mostly, pedants do not admit this. I know, because I have had plenty of arguments with them. They like to maintain that their prejudices are somehow objective – that there are clear instances of language getting “less good” in a way that can be independently verified. But, as we have seen, that is what pedants have said throughout history.0 -
surbiton19
Posts: 1,469
Looks like she is looking for a way by meeting Corbyn. She was rather immature in her initial response. She, after all, commands 15 votes, so 1/18th Labour votes in the HoC. SNP, PC, Lucas, and some Tories are prepared to talk to Corbyn/Labour. If Corbyn does not behave he too can be VoNCed.Chris said:
Having screwed things up so almightily, at least she could try to minimise the damage now. But oh no, she still has to keep saying it won't work.Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
0 -
Endillion
Posts: 4,976
I've tried to find evidence of my accusation and can't, so I withdraw it, with apologies.HYUFD said:
No, I have not as I have never said the Democrats will pick the strongest candidate to beat Trump as their desire for a populist left liberal candidate will come firstEndillion said:
You have strongly implied (some might say very strongly) that Warren can't win the nomination, on the grounds that everyone will eventually figure out that she can't beat Trump.HYUFD said:
In the general election yes but I have never disputed Warren can win the Democratic primaries then lose to TrumpFoxy said:
@HYUFD will be along shortly to say only grandpa Joe can win in the Midwest...Nigelb said:Interesting - Warren leads in Wisconsin poll:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/457548-warren-leads-field-by-5-points-in-wisconsin-poll
True, it comes very late in the primary cycle, but that is nonetheless a significant result, assuming it's not a rogue poll.
Also a key swing state.0 -
IanB2
Posts: 51,057
Foxy said:
The problem is that he has (apart from many other faults!) a long history of anti-europeanism. Since the referendum he has been dragged reluctantly to the point where he grudgingly agrees a further referendum as the price of power. He cannot be trusted on the issue.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, an honesty contest between them would be an unedifying spectacle but I guess you'd have to give it to the man in the red corner.anothernick said:
Corbyn is many things - incompetent, pig headed, inflexible, lacking in judgement etc etc - but lying and untrustworthiness are hard to pin on him - his views have been known, and remained unchanged, for decades and he cannot be compared to Johnson, who has built an entire career on lies.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because like you he is a liar and utterly untrustworthy.Gardenwalker said:
Corbyn is suggesting a soft Brexit and a deal so why won’t you get behind him?Richard_Tyndall said:Unfortunatly this article perpetuates the myth thst the aim of an extension is to prevent No Deal. It is not. It is to allow Remainers more time to try and reverse the Brexit vote. My preferencecwss for a deal and a soft Brexit. But given the antics of Remainers over the past three years I have run out of patience and will accept whatever sort of Brexit we can get.
This is just horse trading over who gets the role of caretaker PM, lets see how things go over the next few weeks.
Indeed. As Green said earlier, stand back and observe the bigger picture.
Everyone is now talking about a GOMOO.0 -
williamglenn
Posts: 54,649
I was attempting to show by reductio ad absurdum that your own argument was wrong. You seem to accept this.Chris said:
No - as you know, I am asking you about your crazy idea that a 2/3 vote for an election could be followed by a VONC and the appointment of another prime minister.williamglenn said:
The "original" idea is that it's politically impossible for him to renege on the date!Chris said:But you're not paying attention. What we're talking about is the "original" idea that if after the 2/3 vote, Johnson made the date 1 November, he could then be VONCed and the Queen could ask someone else to form a government!
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2440976/#Comment_2440976
To be absolutely clear, Boris won't win a 2/3 vote without the date and any other relevant conditions for the election being clear in advance, and it will not be politically possible for him to change the date afterwards.0 -
eek
Posts: 29,650
Corbyn is the intermediate step I suspect it goes:-Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
VoNC Boris
Confidence vote in Corbyn fails
Confidence vote for xyz (my guess is Beckett) wins.
0 -
Chris
Posts: 11,899
You really can't bring yourself to admit that your idea about a VONC following the 2/3 vote was a silly mistake?williamglenn said:
Your premise is that he will win the 2/3 vote without having named a date in advance? If that's your starting point it explains the rest - GIGO.Chris said:
Well, it's nonsensical anyway, because once the 2/3 vote has passed he just has to advise the Queen of the date, so "trying to change" the date doesn't come into it.williamglenn said:
You're in one of your obtuse moods again.Chris said:
I really can't believe I'm reading this.williamglenn said:
If the PM catastrophically loses the confidence of the HoC by breaking their word on the date of an election then why not? Many of their own MPs would be disgusted by such a manoeuver.Chris said:
I'm asking you whether you really think a VONC and the appointment of a different PM could follow a 2/3 vote for an election.williamglenn said:You don't think it's crazy to think that any PM could say, "I've decided we need a general election, to be held on October 10th," then win the 2/3 vote and say, "Gotcha! We're holding the election on November 1st instead"?
Can you just clarify that, please?
Your sequence of event is this:
(1) There is a 2/3 majority for an early election, which allows Johnson to choose the date of the election
(2) Johnson advises the Queen of a date, and a general election is fixed for that date, but no one bothers to dissolve parliament
(3) There is a vote of no confidence
(4) The Queen asks someone else to form a government.
And there I lose track of it. What do you suppose happens then?
The sequence of events is:
1) Johnson says we need an early election to be held on x
2) Johnson wins 2/3 vote in parliament
3) Because the motion doesn't name a date, he tries to change the proposed date from x to y
4) Political uproar leading to the fall of the government
But I'll humour you. Go on. What do you suppose happens next?
A vote of no confidence, you said. And then you think we go into the 14-day period, and you think the Queen asks someone else to form a government.
And then what? If the other person gets a vote of confidence you think the election is off? Or if not they get to tell the Queen a different date?0 -
Pro_Rata
Posts: 5,559
Pro_Rata said:My question remains how can a government involving Labour appoint anyone other than Corbyn as PM, given the Labour rulebook, because it is not clear to me that such a thing is possible...
Pro_Rata said:
A Corbyn resignation / unavailability would have to be prior to government, in which case Watson would assume and become PM.Pro_Rata said:
Answering my own question, it is not mandated but taken as read that the Labour Leader in government would become PM. Coalition demands that leader should not become PM or that Labour could one day be a minor coalition partner, are not considered:Chris said:
I should love to become a professional pedant, but I think there would be too much competition.Pro_Rata said:
Drat your pedantry! Such a rule would sit well with the communism though.Chris said:
Probably not, as the current prime minister, Mr Johnson, is not the leader of the Labour party.Pro_Rata said:Are there any Labour party rules that prevent someone other than party leader becoming PM? I do seem to recall something, but the details are misty.
OK. Are there any internal Labour party rules that prevent a Labour figure other than the leader becoming PM?
1.VII.1.A.viii When the party is in government, the Leader shall appoint the cabinet and all other front bench positions in their capacity as Prime Minister.
4.II.2.E.i When the party is in government and the Party Leader is prime minister and, for whatever reason, becomes permanently unavailable, the Cabinet shall...appoint one of its members to serve as party leader until a ballot....can be carried out.
Given a Cabinet is needed, it is unclear at what point Corbyn would be able, should the need or want arise, to declare himself permanently unavailable in the event of government formation.
No mechanism I can see for my pet theory that Corbyn might parachute in Long-Bailey.0 -
tpfkar
Posts: 1,569
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Is that definitely true? I thought that he had said he wouldn't stand as the Conservative candidate - quite a difference in the nuance.
0 -
Big_G_NorthWales
Posts: 64,983
Full marks to Jo Swinson for laying out a sensible strategy that could just see a GONU under Clarke or HarmanCarlottaVance said:
As I said earlier Corbyn has got himself in a trap of his own making.
Decline a GONU under a neutral leader and see a full on attack from all those wanting to stop no deal0 -
HYUFD
Posts: 126,771
No, she is asking Corbyn to propose alternative candidates as PM not saying she would prop him up.Scott_P said:
And here it is...SandyRentool said:I look forward to seeing Jo Swinson's squirming U-turn.
I could make a crude analogy regarding what she is receiving from Lucas and Sturgeon, but I won't.
https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1162038460267540484
Of course if she did CCHQ would instantly run ads in every southern Tory Remain seat with Swinson in Corbyn's pocket0 -
Scott_P
Posts: 51,453
Wonder how long this one lasts before being "clarified"...
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/11620403919836119040 -
IanB2
Posts: 51,057
I thought Friday 25th was the earliest date?Chris said:
Believe in Boris?GIN1138 said:
You're really over-thinking this. The sequence would be like this:Chris said:
I really can't believe I'm reading this.williamglenn said:
If the PM catastrophically loses the confidence of the HoC by breaking their word on the date of an election then why not? Many of their own MPs would be disgusted by such a manoeuver.Chris said:
I'm asking you whether you really think a VONC and the appointment of a different PM could follow a 2/3 vote for an election.williamglenn said:You don't think it's crazy to think that any PM could say, "I've decided we need a general election, to be held on October 10th," then win the 2/3 vote and say, "Gotcha! We're holding the election on November 1st instead"?
Can you just clarify that, please?
Your sequence of event is this:
(1) There is a 2/3 majority for an early election, which allows Johnson to choose the date of the election
(2) Johnson advises the Queen of a date, and a general election is fixed for that date, but no one bothers to dissolve parliament
(3) There is a vote of no confidence
(4) The Queen asks someone else to form a government.
And there I lose track of it. What do you suppose happens then?
1. Boris would meet the Cabinet at about 9:30am on 4th September where they would agree to hold a general election on 10th October.
2. Boris would phone the Queen in Balmoral at about 10:30am to tell her of the decision to hold an election on 10th October.
3. Boris wiould make a speech in Donwing St. at about 11am and tell the public we're going to have an election on 10th October.
4. Boris could present the Bill to Parliament at about 12pm and tell MPs he wants them to agree to have an election on 10th October.
Now after doing all this the idea that after Parliament has voted for the election he'd make the date 1st November is fanciful in the extreme and it's no often I agree with @williamglenn but he's right that if Boris tried that the damage he'd get in the backlash from MPs, Great British Public and HMQ would be severe.
But you're not paying attention. What we're talking about is the "original" idea that if after the 2/3 vote, Johnson made the date 1 November, he could then be VONCed and the Queen could ask someone else to form a government!0 -
Chris
Posts: 11,899
No - as you know, I am asking you about your crazy idea that a 2/3 vote for an election could be followed by a VONC and the appointment of another prime minister.williamglenn said:
The "original" idea is that it's politically impossible for him to renege on the date!Chris said:But you're not paying attention. What we're talking about is the "original" idea that if after the 2/3 vote, Johnson made the date 1 November, he could then be VONCed and the Queen could ask someone else to form a government!
0 -
eek
Posts: 29,650
Yep Step 2 doesn't work as the first statement anyone sane would make is get an extension to x date and we are will be glad to have an election on October 10th.Endillion said:
Surely step 3) can't actually happen, due to Labour refusing to oblige step 2) because they don't trust him to follow through on step 1) ?williamglenn said:
You're in one of your obtuse moods again.Chris said:
I really can't believe I'm reading this.williamglenn said:
If the PM catastrophically loses the confidence of the HoC by breaking their word on the date of an election then why not? Many of their own MPs would be disgusted by such a manoeuver.Chris said:
I'm asking you whether you really think a VONC and the appointment of a different PM could follow a 2/3 vote for an election.williamglenn said:You don't think it's crazy to think that any PM could say, "I've decided we need a general election, to be held on October 10th," then win the 2/3 vote and say, "Gotcha! We're holding the election on November 1st instead"?
Can you just clarify that, please?
Your sequence of event is this:
(1) There is a 2/3 majority for an early election, which allows Johnson to choose the date of the election
(2) Johnson advises the Queen of a date, and a general election is fixed for that date, but no one bothers to dissolve parliament
(3) There is a vote of no confidence
(4) The Queen asks someone else to form a government.
And there I lose track of it. What do you suppose happens then?
The sequence of events is:
1) Johnson says we need an early election to be held on x
2) Johnson wins 2/3 vote in parliament
3) Because the motion doesn't name a date, he tries to change the proposed date from x to y
4) Political uproar leading to the fall of the government
Then Boris has to spend the entire campaign answering why we won't have left by October 31st with the Brexit party calling him a traitor.0
