politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB retains its double digit lead in the August Ipsos-MORI
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Roger time to come clean, you are the Tories secret weapon.Roger said:I can't even imagine where MORI got their sub-sample. Tories up here are as rare as good restaurants with 'Scottish' in their Name. Maybe they sent a team up to Aberdeen and Easteross was having afternoon tea with the Fity family'.....
You live in "red" London, yet Boris wins
You go to Scotland for a week and the Tories put on 20% vote share.
How much will it cost to get you to live in Merseyside in 2015 ?
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So the Cons could actually be on 51% in Scotland ??TheScreamingEagles said:
48 - That's massive.MarkSenior said:
Conservatives must hope that the 48 people in the Scottish sub sample are truly representative of Scotland as a whole and not just fitalass , ScottP and their families .TheScreamingEagles said:We had the Survation Scottish subsample showing the Tories in second place.
Now the Mori sub-samples shows the Tories in first place.
I see a trend.
Gordon Brown boosted the Labour share in Scotland in 2010, we're seeing an unwind as Ed is worse than Gordon in Scotland.
I think the MOE on that is 15% or so
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This from the man who thinks "fisking someone to bowleggedness" can be reasonably described as a "rape fantasy"...tim said:
Financier struggles to understand anecdotal, let alone metaphorical
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Yup, David Cameron is the New ChurchillTGOHF said:
So the Cons could actually be on 51% in Scotland ??TheScreamingEagles said:
48 - That's massive.MarkSenior said:
Conservatives must hope that the 48 people in the Scottish sub sample are truly representative of Scotland as a whole and not just fitalass , ScottP and their families .TheScreamingEagles said:We had the Survation Scottish subsample showing the Tories in second place.
Now the Mori sub-samples shows the Tories in first place.
I see a trend.
Gordon Brown boosted the Labour share in Scotland in 2010, we're seeing an unwind as Ed is worse than Gordon in Scotland.
I think the MOE on that is 15% or so0 -
The sticky (for now) nature of Labour's small (too small) poll leads leaves some breathing space for EdM to exploit should he decide to raise the Party from its strange summer torpor.
These leads won't last for that much longer if he mishandles this upcoming autumn period.0 -
@tim have you worked out whether you think there is any possible way to stop the increase in housing benefit yet?0
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You're the one talking about the largest movements.tim said:
20 point net swing in leader ratings July 2011TheScreamingEagles said:
I've not theorised, I've used actual data, the biggest change was October 2012, after Ed's one nation speech, with YouGov.tim said:
When was the biggest monthly change since 2010?TheScreamingEagles said:One thing I'm writing about for a future thread is, that in the past few years, YouGov's leader ratings seem to pick up the movements about 2-3 months before Mori does.
Check that before you theorise
You'll struggle to base a theory on a conference season movement where both leaders got a boost.
Cameron's bigger than Eds in 2012
I'm talking about that there is some evidence that YouGov are picking up long term movements and trends in leader ratings about 2-3 months before Ipsos Mori are.0 -
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No Roger, definitely the kippers, only 2 days ago MikeK was doggedly determined he was "an observer not a doer" .Roger said:Good theory! I put the 'doggers' down as Lib Dems but I bow to Sean's expertise
On the other hand his post does make you wonder about laybys in Southam.
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Alanbrooke
I 'll do it for half a Messina!0 -
Ben. Congratulations on your second son.BenM said:
A litany of the wrong, the deranged and the harebrained.Plato said:think tanks such as the IEA, the Centre for Social Justice, the Taxpayers' Alliance, and the CPS itself
Funny how the biased CPS piece about alleged (read: non-existent) BBC bias sunk without a trace.
But when are you going to have a daughter?
It is not that I disapprove of sons, but I have invested a lot of time and effort getting the Headmistress of Cheltenham Ladies College to include Economics in her school's curriculum.
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Wait until the end of next week when my piece will go uptim said:
When did YouGov pick up the July 2011 movement?TheScreamingEagles said:
You're the one talking about the largest movements.tim said:
20 point net swing in leader ratings July 2011TheScreamingEagles said:
I've not theorised, I've used actual data, the biggest change was October 2012, after Ed's one nation speech, with YouGov.tim said:
When was the biggest monthly change since 2010?TheScreamingEagles said:One thing I'm writing about for a future thread is, that in the past few years, YouGov's leader ratings seem to pick up the movements about 2-3 months before Mori does.
Check that before you theorise
You'll struggle to base a theory on a conference season movement where both leaders got a boost.
Cameron's bigger than Eds in 2012
I'm talking about that there is some evidence that YouGov are picking up long term movements and trends in leader ratings about 2-3 months before Ipsos Mori are.0 -
send me a photo of tim pointing at squid in Morrisons and you've got yourself a deal ;-)Roger said:Alanbrooke
I 'll do it for half a Messina!
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BBC bias.
If I was head of the corporation I would simply ask how any organisation that gives Jeremy Clarkson a popular and well funded platform could be accused of left wing bias0 -
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If I were to dislike Miliband it would be for being ineffectual. The country needs a strong opposition and he is falling short.RichardNabavi said:Odd that so many people say they 'dislike' Ed Miliband. I've always thought of him as very likeable (certainly in very marked contrast to his two predecessors). Are they perhaps really answering a different question - saying they think he's ineffectual, wonkish, weak?
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O/T - What's spooking the markets today? Well, actually most of this week?
Can Avery reassure a trembling, fevered populace that Hurricane Hunchman Hapocalypse - feared by what feels like 100 years - is not about to wipe all life from the face of the earth? On the hand, restoring Roger to his rightful place in the prognostication stakes would take much of the sting out of the calamity.0 -
There used to be plenty of Tories in Edinburgh, Roger. Even during the Edinburgh Festival. You would find them in the banking halls of The Mound.Roger said:I can't even imagine where MORI got their sub-sample. Tories up here are as rare as good restaurants with 'Scottish' in their Name. Maybe they sent a team up to Aberdeen and Easteross was having afternoon tea with the Fity family'.....
Nowadays the banks are all boarded up by bailliffs and their halls occupied by the Alternative Theatre Club of Goldsmiths University performing a mime version of The Vagina Monologues.
Leave you cameras in the left luggage office of Waverley Station and head North to the land of Easter Ross.
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A good poll for Labour to calm a few nerves. However, it is silly season and all polls are probably a "bit off" at the moment. No doubt that the Tories have closed the gap a little but there is such a long way to go before GE 2015 that things can still swing in both directions.
Still think a small Labour majority is the most likely result.0 -
the most consistent repeat poster on PB , Cheshire Branch, gets huffy about another one who posts a repeat three times... ya gorra larf....0
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Ed's speech was a bit of a success. ..apparently he didn't make one..should give him a boost..0
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