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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB retains its double digit lead in the August Ipsos-MORI
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB retains its double digit lead in the August Ipsos-MORI phone poll
We’ve got the first details of the Ipsos-MORI poll in the Evening Standard which only gives partial details and wrongly describes “Leader Satisfaction ratings” as “Approval Ratings”.
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Boring.
The latest score is his worst as leader and compares to ex-Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s in July 2008."
No real surprises.
Tories 48
Lab 24.
Ed is no Dave
O/T, but there's a new Morgan poll in Australia, giving the Coalition a lead of 57/43% on second preferences.
Can't believe it's 19 years since I got my own A-levels!
I think Mssrs Hodges and Gavin are right re Ali Campbell. Thinking that Gordon did a 'very good job' may keep core Labourites snuggly, the rest of the population blew a raspberry at him in 2010 with 29%.
Telling the voters they were wrong butters no parsnips.
As you've calmed down a bit, I'll treat your response seriously.
I honestly don't the impact Bulgarian and Romanian immigration will have on UK politics. Doesn't it all rather depend on how many actually arrive on these shores? If we're 'swamped' (as Mrs T once said) then UKIP will thrive and it could get rough (again) for the Blues for a while....
....Against that is the improving economy and what impact that may have on triggering further swing-back to the Tories which could easily push Labour back to the low thirties.
Now Mike Smithson, Southam Observer, Nick Palmer and you look at the 2010 LibDems and conclude that this new coalition (with existing Labour voters) will largely be immune to floating back because of economic feel-better, competence factors. It's a logical call but it's not one I think will eventuate.
Proof of pudding and all that....the polls from post Conferences through to May 2014 (that takes in the all-important budget) should tell us which of the two camps seems to be on the right track.
Antifrank from previous thread, I can see the LD's losing many seats: down to under 30?
Homely student Mary Archer said: “I’ve just got 4 As and no one wants my picture because there are some girls over there in halter tops – who got Ds and Es – having a cuddle.
“I think I’ve just learned a very depressing life lesson.”
Historian Tom Booker said: “Future civilisations will look back at our news websites and think our academics were all skinny, buxom females with borderline lesbian tendencies.” http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/plain-looking-students-exam-success-goes-undocumented-2013081578670
"The whole point of an internship is that it isn’t a job — it’s an opportunity. So it makes perfect sense that there’s no pay packet at the end of the week. When I was 20 I spent three months working for Living Marxism magazine in exchange for a daily cup of coffee, which I had to make myself. But they worked harder on me than I did for them: they taught me to write, gave me grammar lessons I never got at my comp, helped me think about the world in a fresh way. Interning is always harder work for the people overseeing the interns than it is for the interns themselves.
Easily the most grating argument made by agitating interns is that unpaid internships hit working-class youth the hardest. Apparently these empty-stomached sons of toil can’t afford to work for free, and therefore certain professions where interning is rife — such as journalism — will remain closed to them forever. What patronising nonsense. Is there anything worse than when middle-class campaigners use grubby-kneed poor folk as a Trojan horse for the pursuit of their own self-enriching escapades? Resilient working-class kids have for years topped up their internships with Saturday jobs or evening work, while kipping on a friend’s couch to cut outgoings. And in the process they demonstrated the very thing every intern should ideally possess: self-drive, the opposite of self-pity."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8994761/why-interns-dont-deserve-pay/
However, I'm surprised you're so negative on Lib Dem seat tallies.
More students than EVER BEFORE now doing: Maths, Further Maths, Physics, Chemistry & Biology (in absolute terms and as % of cohort. Via JCQ)
I think people aren't writing enough articles with advice for Ed Miliband. The media needs more of those. People are crying out for them.
You still haven't told us what percentage of your local area's population are immigrants!
"A-levels day: 10 mistakes parents make when reacting to results"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23435441
MikeK Posts: 1,145
11:06AM
Labour's breathtaking hypocrisy over foreign workers
A British 'underclass’ was created on its watch – but all Labour does is blame everyone else
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10237753/Labours-breathtaking-hypocrisy-over-foreign-workers.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10243709/New-wave-of-immigrants-begins.html
New wave of immigration begins: UKIP right every time!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
The Daily Mail seems to think so.
In other news Diane Abbott now charges £1750 to give speeches about how expensive tuition fees are at unis. Ironic. trendingcentral.com/anti-tuition-f…
All for themselves after all
MikeK Posts: 1,145
10:54AM edited 10:56AM
James Delingpole feeling sorry for himself: LOL
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/james-delingpole/8994141/ukip-are-playing-it-safe-so-theyve-rejected-me/
So farewell then £80,000 salary, £150,000 expense account, secretary, team of assistants, constituency office, first-class travel, immunity from prosecution, Brussels blowouts, ludicrous pension and all the other perks I’d been so looking forward to enjoying from May next year onwards. Ukip has decided that it doesn’t, after all, want to have me as one of its MEPs.
The rejection came as a bit of a surprise, I must say. When the party chairman, Steve Crowther, rang to break the news, I felt rather as Brad Pitt might on being turned down for a mercy shag he’d proffered Ann Widdecombe. No offence intended to Ukip — I think they’re great people and a very necessary prick to the Westminster bubble. But if I’d been them, I definitely would have gone for me. Sure it would have been a risk, which would probably have backfired horribly. Think, though, of all the fun we would have had before it did!
Apparently I did fine on the public speaking part. But failed dismally on the interview (too recent a party member; not enough evidence of involvement in the nitty-gritty of Ukip politics) and on the psychometric testing. So there already is another string to my bow: ‘James Delingpole — the man so barking even Ukip wouldn’t have him.’...........................................
[replied to wrong post, but you get my drift...]
.@HPIAndyCowper well in 2010 election they - for first time ever - said leader character was as imp as policies...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRtFUVBCcAAN8ue.jpg:large
10mb $3398...
Of course this happens at a time when staff with families wish to go on holiday and that puts further pressure on our resources.
Thus we look for interns who can make a small contribution to our work but we do cover living expenses notwthstanding.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/how-the-tube-was-built-using-picks-ponies-shovels--and-a-lot-of-elbow-grease-8759404.html
Earliest bona fide Tube line was the City & South London in 1890 - today's Northern line between Borough and Stockwell (plus a disused section Borough to King William Street, replaced in 1900 by the line via London Bridge and Bank).
"Well that's is one way of countering the criticism that your news presentation is biased against arguments from Right-of-centre think tanks. You just smear the Right-of-centre think tank that points it out as being politically motivated and biased against you. Even by the standards of the BBC – which has never been known to address (or even comprehend) criticism of its impartiality – this argument takes the biscuit.
The Centre for Policy Studies has published an impeccably researched report which offers objective statistical evidence of the BBC's persistent habit of describing (which is to say, effectively dismissing) the proposals of think tanks such as the IEA, the Centre for Social Justice, the Taxpayers' Alliance, and the CPS itself as emanating from "Rightwing" organisations, while offering up material from Leftwing or Labour-supporting groups without any such health-warning. The effect, needless to say, is to cast political suspicion on the published claims or policy suggestions of the outfits labelled "Rightwing", even when the material they contain is factual and empirically indisputable.
So how does the BBC respond to this? Do they say, "This report contains serious allegations of bias which we will examine"? Or perhaps, "We understand that there is concern about lack of impartiality in our political news coverage, and we will consider the facts in this report seriously"? No, they do not. Their tirelessly defensive spokesman simply points out that the CPS is (guess what?) a Right-of-centre think tank which has been known to campaign for the BBC to be reduced in size and question the continuation of the licence fee..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100231241/the-bbc-says-anyone-who-accuses-it-of-bias-is-biased/
A-Level results day - the first sign of the end of summer and the coming of autumn, the end of holidays and frivolity and the return to normality and seriousness.
Moving on...
Interesting observations re: Ed Miliband. I realise there are many on here who are hostile simply because he is leader of the Labour Party but I'm less so. He has a huge advantage on past Opposition leaders in that he knows when the election is going to be and can plan accordingly.
I thought Matthew D'Ancona's article in last night's Standard was enlightening though obviously written from a pro-Cameron pro-Conservative standpoint. It is incredibly difficult for parties thrown into opposition after long periods in office to escape the chains of their past. The Conservatives in 2000 were nowhere - had it not been for the brief blip of the fuel protest, they would not have led a single poll for the entire Parliament as I recall. Come the GE, it made no difference and they were crushed.
The degree to which any party can escape its past and carve out a new future is limited. Inevitably, those ideologically and practically associated with that past remain in dominant positions even after the leadership itself is swept away so how to disassociate? A mea culpa would be a good start and I've not heard one from Labour since 2010 - it took the Conservatives eight or nine years to reach the same point after 1997. The problem with that is it sounds hollow from someone so closely involved.
In an ideal world, there would be a complete purge of the old leadership and a new untainted generation and leader comes in (Cameron and Blair being good examples) but the practicalities of politics make it really tough. I don't envy Ed Miliband that dilemma but at some point, apart from outlining the vision of Labour Britain 2015-20, he also has to come to terms with and recognise the failings of Labour Britain 1997-2010.
http://ipsos-mori.co.uk/researchpublications/researcharchive/3245/Ipsos-MORI-Political-Monitor-August-2013.aspx
[Liverpool] who have come up with away and third kits that seem to be the product of a drunken brawl between Jackson Pollock, Piet Mondrian and a defective photocopier.
Toxic?
Do you like:
The Conservative Party:
Like 39%
Dislike 57%
Ed Miliband:
Like 30%
Dislike 63%
Disastrous fall for the toxic leader since last time. Even Nick Clegg is more liked, for heaven's sake.
http://i4.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article1930702.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Leaked-images-of-the-Liverpool-201314-away-and-third-kit-1930702.jpg
And immaturity isn't what I what in a leader for our country.
RT @TripeUK: Lunch is served in buffet car. Fill your boots. If you're hungry you may also want to eat some pic.twitter.com/aEV77sNGmM < ALIENS
Look away now if you're eating lunch https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BRtPvbUCIAAup9j.jpg:large
Shape up, son, it's getting embarrassing.
Arsenal's black and yellow diamonds away kit was awful (Early 90s).
David Seaman had some shockers too for Euro 96
Catch-up: Is @Ed_Miliband facing a crisis? @DPJHodges & @sunny_hundal disagreed about how much trouble Labour are in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GJDe6HEY4Xg
I think he's being metaphorical Financier!
I can agree with most of what you've said apart from the EU element. There has been a rush to brink in the ex Eastern Bloc countries primarily for the political desire to reduce the chance of communist takeover. Unfortunately the economic standards of these countries fall far below those in the 'developed' EU and there's an automatic migration from poorer to richer countries, bringing down the standards throughout the EU. I would have liked to see a far slower expansion, with associate membership lasting decades with economic support from the EU but no migration until the economy of the associate is within 25 - 30% of the EU average. I must admit this figure is a guestimate.
This would reduce the shock from a new member but also encourage internal development of the aspiring states.
Any effect on the referendum ? Who knows..
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/bbc-scotland-staff-accused-sex-2169558
'gap widens between A level students in Wales and England'
More wild success from labour's policy lab....
Con 36% Lab 33% LD 15% SNP 14% UKIP 2%
Ed Miliband seems to have drifted into the relegation zone with Nick Clegg so far as his personal ratings are concerned. But so far it's not hurting Labour's headline figures. Can this disconnect continue all the way to the next election? Is This Time Different?
Con gain Banff and Buchan, Glasgow East etc
Now, you can argue that's dishonest, underhand, duplicitous, impossible and a thousand other things. However, you can;t deny its a powerful political message and one that's difficult to counter.
One of the Lib Dems' four seats would be Danny Alexander.
Possibly the apparent lack of leader rating impact relates to the *degree* of liking/dislike. Kinnock, the classic example, excited very strong passions, as did Thatcher. With Ed the reaction is more "I'm not sure I can see him in Number 10" rather than "I hate him and will vote to stop him at all costs", so party likes and dislikes assume greater importance?
Funny how the biased CPS piece about alleged (read: non-existent) BBC bias sunk without a trace.
Now the Mori sub-samples shows the Tories in first place.
I see a trend.
Gordon Brown boosted the Labour share in Scotland in 2010, we're seeing an unwind as Ed is worse than Gordon in Scotland.
Julia Hartley-Brewer @JuliaHB1
I'd like to hear from you if you got your A level results today & didn't get straight As or A*s, not a twin or pretty @lbc973 0845 6060 973
SNP 35pc, Conservatives 29.7, Labour 27.4, UKIP 4.3, Lib Dems 3.5.
Conservatives 29.7pc? We’re constantly told the Tories are dead north of the Border, so what’s that about? My explanation is that this poll was taken during a grouse shoot: the Tories were the shooters, the Nats were there to schmooze the aristos, the Labour supporters were the beaters, the tiny band of Libs were anti-hunt protestors and the two UKIP supporters were a random old couple dogging in the heather. Alternatively, the poll is an unreliable subsample.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100230698/will-fracking-halve-the-price-of-oil-and-destroy-the-economic-case-for-an-independent-scotland/
Perhaps it's underway
I think the MOE on that is 15% or so