politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump’s betting price weakens as the 2012 GOP nominee, Mitt

Go Mitt, kick Trump's arse

So why is Romney making this attack now? Why didn't he do this earlier in the campaign?

As I mentioned on the last thread:

More reaction from Cruz backers:

Daniel Horowitz ‏@RMConservative 1h1 hour ago
Right now Romney is doing Trumps a favor and giving him much needed momentum by making himself the face of opposition

Ben Shapiro ‏@benshapiro 56m56 minutes ago
Romney's brand of milquetoast politics will do nothing to harm Trump. Nothing.

And Trump's campaign knows it:

The HillVerified account ‏@thehill 31m31 minutes ago
JUST IN: Top Trump aide thanks Romney for "incredible endorsement" http://hill.cm/RV0TSOT

My assumption that Romney attacking Trump helps Trump by channeling Cruz voters to Trump appears to be true.
This is the best news that Trump had this week so far.

If Trump survives the Fox debate tonight he is on auto pilot to the nomination, thanks to Romney.

It's like Tony Blair saying to Labour voters don't vote Corbyn.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/705448270462590976

I love the old guy just wanders past totally oblivious.

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

FPT:

Pulpstar said:
Kasich has just plummeted on Betfair.

Any ideas why ?

Dunno - but I've just laid him at 26 with Betfair and backed him at 51 with both Stan James and Wm Hill, with both severely limiting my stakes.

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

As Pulpstar said on the last thread it's the Blair Corbyn intervention.

Isn't Mitt Romney attacking Donald Trump a bit like Ed Miliband attacking Jeremy Corbyn?

Who might the third party standard bearer be?

As this NY Times article http://nyti.ms/1WWdyIp says, the easiest way to get on the ballot across the nation could be to be the nominee of the Libetarian or Constiutional parties.

A candidate from the right of the GOP could be more likely to come to an arrangement with those parties.

On that basis what about Ben Sasse? He's a Nebraska senator who's been vocal in opposing Trump.

I think he comes across well in this video of him reading out mean tweets from Trump supporters http://on.fb.me/1Qu6rGB

If not Trump then I'd fancy Kasich rather than Yesterday's Man.

http://tinyurl.com/ozyvh33

Casino_Royale said:

Wanderer said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

As Pulpstar said on the last thread it's the Blair Corbyn intervention.

It's a great time to top up on Trump.

Yes. Maybe even better after tonight's debate as Rubio and Cruz and both go for him, surely.

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

Quite. Trump is going to wave him away as yesterday's man, full support of the establishment and couldn't make it stick. Couldn't even make himself great never mind make America great again, etc

True. But what else can GOP do other than attack, attack, attack? They have got themselves into a right mess.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Question for the legal eagles here.
The footballer who has been convicted is iirc on bail awaiting sentencing.
Does the time on bail post conviction count towards time served of any sentence?
Someone in the pub is saying it does, seems a bit odd to me if it does.

Only if he was on remand.

On topic, time to back Trump again then (or perhaps time to wait just a little longer before doing so).

It is true that he has a bit of a challenge this next week with most contests being caucuses and closed primaries, where he's not done so well. That could create a media narrative that runs against him. That will make for a good time to back him

Because the fundamental point remains and is this: he has a 25% lead over the field in the national polls.

It is possible that Rubio might beat him in Florida (though is a long way from it at the moment), it is possible that Kasich might beat him in Ohio (though Trump leads there too, just), it is possible that Cruz might win more states.

But overall, Trump will win far more delegates and far more states. No one will be able to beat him and the convention will look horribly rigged if it goes any other way in the unlikely event that it ends up without an outright winner.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Question for the legal eagles here.
The footballer who has been convicted is iirc on bail awaiting sentencing.
Does the time on bail post conviction count towards time served of any sentence?
Someone in the pub is saying it does, seems a bit odd to me if it does.

Only if he was on remand.

Thanks for the confirmation TSE

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Question for the legal eagles here.
The footballer who has been convicted is iirc on bail awaiting sentencing.
Does the time on bail post conviction count towards time served of any sentence?
Someone in the pub is saying it does, seems a bit odd to me if it does.

Only if he was on remand.

Thanks for the confirmation TSE

Actually I was wrong, if he was on remanded on bail with HDC (tag) that would count as part of his sentence. One day of tag counts as half of a day of prison time.

Looking at the available evidence, Adam Johnson wasn't remanded on bail with HDC

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

Quite. Trump is going to wave him away as yesterday's man, full support of the establishment and couldn't make it stick. Couldn't even make himself great never mind make America great again, etc

True. But what else can GOP do other than attack, attack, attack? They have got themselves into a right mess.

This is the bit I don't get though. If they attack attack attack they get HRC for sure, do thy really want 4-8 years of her rather than the rather less than optimal Mr Trump ?

Probably.

McCain now weighing in.

The Rubio backers are back like bitches on heat on Betfair.

I think many of us on PB recognise the value, now sadly all but gone, in backing Trump for the GOP nomination, but just feel that somehow, in some way his bid is destined to fail. That's an acceptable risk for those who got on at 5/1, 10/1 or possibly more, but probably not so at his current odds of less than 1/2.

Maybe my dream of a Biden-Kasich election is not looking impossible after all/

gettingbetter said:

Maybe my dream of a Biden-Kasich election is not looking impossible after all/

Biden is still in the frame as much as he ever was.

So is Kasich for that matter.

Andrew said:

Rubio on betfair is like the turd that wouldn't flush. Lot of money really fancies him.

Jeb Bush has come back from the dead too.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Question for the legal eagles here.
The footballer who has been convicted is iirc on bail awaiting sentencing.
Does the time on bail post conviction count towards time served of any sentence?
Someone in the pub is saying it does, seems a bit odd to me if it does.

Only if he was on remand.

Thanks for the confirmation TSE

Actually I was wrong, if he was on remanded on bail with HDC (tag) that would count as part of his sentence. One day of tag counts as half of a day of prison time.

Looking at the available evidence, Adam Johnson wasn't remanded on bail with HDC

Well, it's tag + curfew; see 240A

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/44/part/12/chapter/6/crossheading/effect-of-remand-in-custody

No idea if he is as you say not subject to such a condition

Really frustrating there are people buying POTUS Romney @ 25/1 over on predictit.

They'd get 269/1 if they figured out a way to access Betfair.

I'm not saying backing him is a good bet, it's just frustrating when people blindly take such obviously crap odds.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Question for the legal eagles here.
The footballer who has been convicted is iirc on bail awaiting sentencing.
Does the time on bail post conviction count towards time served of any sentence?
Someone in the pub is saying it does, seems a bit odd to me if it does.

Only if he was on remand.

Thanks for the confirmation TSE

Actually I was wrong, if he was on remanded on bail with HDC (tag) that would count as part of his sentence. One day of tag counts as half of a day of prison time.

Looking at the available evidence, Adam Johnson wasn't remanded on bail with HDC

Well, it's tag + curfew; see 240A

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2003/44/part/12/chapter/6/crossheading/effect-of-remand-in-custody

No idea if he is as you say not subject to such a condition

I once wore a tag for about 30mins at a G4S open day. After about 20 mins I was ready to rip it off.

I admire the chaps that wear it 24/7 for months.

25-1 Romney POTUS has to be the worst bet I have EVER, EVER, EVER seen in my entire life.

Le Paige on stage

Pulpstar said:

Pong said:

Really frustrating there are people buying POTUS Romney @ 25/1 over on predictit.

They'd get 269/1 if they figured out a way to access Betfair.

Have you ever seen a goldmine that you just can't access ?

grrrr.

It's not me laying that 269/1 btw - I'm not really prepared to lay my Romney green above 100/1 right now.

1% sounds about right to me.

Pulpstar said:

Le Paige on stage

Elaine?

MikeL said:

Big move in EU ref odds.

Until about 24 hours ago, Remain was about 1.43.

Started tightening last night and now all the way in to 1.34.

That's a big move.

Any explanation? I can't see any comment on here.

I did fill in a couple of YouGov EUref polls in the last couple of days.

We might be due a poll tonight.

New this morning: Florida state Rep. Mike Hill is endorsing @tedcruz for president, per Cruz's campaign in Florida.

Cruz needs to go in hard in Florida, needs to get the bartender's son out the race.

Bernie fans being evicted now !

FrancisUrquhart said:

Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

I think I might head off to Greece, I think I could pass off as a migrant

ydoethur said:

Indigo said:

rottenborough said:

Indigo said:

Casino_Royale said:

Maybe I'm just not seeing this, but Trump being attacked by the face of the Republican establishment is supposed to be bad for Trump when the whole basis of his appeal has been in opposition to it?

Quite. Trump is going to wave him away as yesterday's man, full support of the establishment and couldn't make it stick. Couldn't even make himself great never mind make America great again, etc

True. But what else can GOP do other than attack, attack, attack? They have got themselves into a right mess.

This is the bit I don't get though. If they attack attack attack they get HRC for sure, do thy really want 4-8 years of her rather than the rather less than optimal Mr Trump ?

I think they have worked out that even if Clinton wins, the odds of a tainted 73 year old winning in 2020 are zero. Meanwhile, there is a good chance of a split ticket given how Marmite the candidates are - if the Republicans keep Congress with a weak President who has no actual policies, they'll probably get more than with the socially liberal Trump and a Democratic Congress.

Or maybe I'm overthinking this and they just feel much the same way TSE does about him.

If Trump loses the GOP base will likely conclude they need someone even more conservative in 2020 and pick Cruz, which would be just as bad for the establishment. If Trump wins he runs for reelection in 2020 either way the GOP establishment is now arguably in an even greater hole than the Labour establishment and they keep on digging. Romney's speech is the equivalent of Ed Miliband publicly slating Corbyn, having a loser stand as the leader of the establishment will just inflame the base even more

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

I think I might head off to Greece, I think I could pass off as a migrant

Right, but just be sure not to wear your poncey shoes!

peter_from_putney said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

I think I might head off to Greece, I think I could pass off as a migrant

Right, but just be sure not to wear your poncey shoes!

Funny you should mention that, I'm on the verge on buying my ponciest ever bit of footwear

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Migrants in Greece are set to be handed envelopes of cash under a £550million EU disaster fund announced yesterday.

Brussels officials said despite the obvious dangers of giving taxpayers’ money directly to those in refugee camps to spend as they wish it would help them ‘maintain their dignity’.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474417/Migrants-Greece-handed-550million-EU-disaster-fund-maintain-dignity.html

Looks like the EU have been taking advice from Kids Company / Batwoman on how to run a successful operation.

I think I might head off to Greece, I think I could pass off as a migrant

If you have any sporting talent you might even get a spot in the Olympics. Failing that Yentob will get you a starring spot on Later with Jools Holland (it doesn't matter if you can sing or not, most on there can't anyway).

TCPoliticalBetting said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Mr Yentob has said he wants to focus on the musical talents of migrants. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3474871/BBC-s-Imagine-arts-editor-Alan-Yentob-films-documentary-Calais-migrant-camp-bulldozers-raze-homes-fourth-day.html Now nobody suggest he is out of touch...has anybody told him Glastonbury hasn't relocated across the channel this year.
Is it just me or does it seem like you can't claim you a somebody until you have spent a day or two wandering around the jungle taking selfies on your iPhone?

These poor poor people having walked thousands of miles and now harrasssed by minor celebrities such as Yentob. Has he lost his freebie tickets for Glastonbury and the big entertaining budget that he squandered?

Actually maybe it is a secret weapon being deployed by the government. Make it be known that London is full of Yentob's and they might all decide that the UK isn't for them after all.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

Jermaine Jenas...you gotta be having a laugh....Serious businessman, nope...academic...nah that won't get the yuff in....lets have Jermaine Jenas....I mean come on if you are going to have a footballer on, Guardian Graham Le Saux has to be your man.

I am presuming it is 4:1 on Remain vs Stay.

The Times have confirmed to me, that they aren't publishing a YouGov/EURef poll tonight or in the next few days, nor have they commissioned one

So that Betfair movement must be something else

nigel4england said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Times have confirmed to me, that they aren't publishing a YouGov/EURef poll tonight or in the next few days, nor have they commissioned one

So that Betfair movement must be something else

Bookies leveling their books?

Might be, during the Indyref campaign, some companies commissioned polls on the Indyref, we might seeing that too this time

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

Jermaine Jenas...you gotta be having a laugh....Serious businessman, nope...academic...nah that won't get the yuff in....lets have Jermaine Jenas....I mean come on if you are going to have a footballer on, Guardian Graham Le Saux has to be your man.

I am presuming it is 4:1 on Remain vs Stay.

Actually Jenas formed and runs a charity, helping disadvantaged kids.If they behave, they get tickets to football matches, and other pastoral care.

I know....Craig Bellamy pumps loads of money into an academy in Africa...I don't think he should be on QT either.

tlg86 said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

Samantha Janus knows very little about football so I'm not sure what he'll offer on Question Time.

Is she the sister of Hugh Janus?

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

http://order-order.com/2016/03/03/whos-on-question-time-tonight/

Who is going to make the case for REMAIN? Zoe of course, but John McDonnell?
Might be worth watching for a cat fight between Louise & Zoe.
Also how will the cerebral Dominic Raab handle a live audience - also worth watching?
Is Jermaine in the wrong studio? I may be misjudging.

Jermaine Jenas...you gotta be having a laugh....Serious businessman, nope...academic...nah that won't get the yuff in....lets have Jermaine Jenas....I mean come on if you are going to have a footballer on, Guardian Graham Le Saux has to be your man.

I am presuming it is 4:1 on Remain vs Stay.

Actually Jenas formed and runs a charity, helping disadvantaged kids.If they behave, they get tickets to football matches, and other pastoral care.

Thanks, glad he may have something to say.