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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Night hawks is now open
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Night hawks is now open
Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
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The Tories have no members. They will be over taken by UKIP by 2016/2017 on the current trends.
How many years until everyone in the UK is a UKIP member, given current trends? ;-)
“Otherwise the numbers will not be there on the ground to do what needs to be done. We have worked hard over many elections and want to see the party win again in the future. But dwindling numbers means the chances of mobilising the activists to secure such a victory are diminishing.
“A general cannot win a war without experienced troops on the ground.”
If you’re in a hurry, we’ll cut to the chase here – the conclusion of all the available evidence is that Nate Silver’s core assertion is complete rubbish.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/tendentious-tendencies/
UKIP 40,000
Con 90, 000 - 100,000
UKIP have gained around 14k I think this year. The Tories have lost over 30k in two years.
Do the math!
carl said:
"It does seem strange that, after all their talk of re-balancing the economy, the Tory economic strategy has come down to letting finance and borrowing rip and trying to inflate an asset / consumer bubble.
Did Cameron and Osborne learn nothing at all from the financial crisis and the economic / deficit problems it caused?"
I thought it was a global financial crisis that started in America? That it was definitely not caused by Labour's policies, and that Gordo saved the world?
But now you tell us that the current government could cause a repeat, by making the same mistakes...
It's hard to keep up with the left sometimes when you run round and round in circles like this. Doesn't it make you dizzy?
What is it about lefties that makes so many of their male posters on here mysogynists?
Day after day we see nasty attacks on Plato (and others), so why do they feel so threatened by females?
Guys it is 2013 not 1913. I wonder if they had bad experiences with leftie females that has created such a nasty streak? Ever thought of therapy chaps?
I just think it's a crying shame that Cameron and Osborne are doing exactly the same.
It is also wrong as it doesn't account for those that leave half way through the year. Or indeed if people pay to much as they often do.
I suspect that at heart they hate me because I was a Labourite who switched to the Tories. Traitor that I am.
And, believe me, Plato can handle it ! She gives as good as she gets.
He is also taken the Tories into more debt as a party than Labour. When he took over as leader Labour were £30 million in debt.
Hoo-effing-ray, one of you gets it at last! ✌
All I know is that Plato is a textbook troll.
I suppose it's not a terrible thing, all sites have them, it makes life livelier for those so inclined.
"With the leader and the shadow chancellor away on holiday, Labour’s prolonged roosting session, punctuated by faint clucking, gave rise to the accusation that the party – if you will forgive the horrible pun – is displaying all the characteristics of an Edless chicken. While a summer lull was bound to elicit murmurings from malcontents, senior figures loyal to Ed Miliband are also voicing serious concerns..." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/10240861/Friends-and-foes-are-wondering-ifMr-Miliband-has-lost-the-plot.html
"Exacerbated"? Definitely.
Question now is who has learned the lessons from the crisis. The Tories certainly haven't, as they are repeating the finance / deregulation / asset bubble mistakes that led to our deficit. Jury is out on Labour.
LOL
FPT
"IOS Posts: 346
7:35PM
Plato - Are you really that dense. Try to look at the substance of my argument. And as for those two signings I would hardly call them galatico's.
The Tories last time ran the second worst general election campaign in 20 years by any major party."
I see no quotes.
Please back this insinuation up with a link.
The speech of.
My Life.
And.
People up and down the country.
Have told me.
< insert cliche >
The reality is.
That I have nothing.
To say.
The banks reacted to depressed yields and the need to generate a return on capital. The regulatory system Labour introduced was badly designed and failed to provide sufficient oversight.
Mr. IOS: maths*, not math.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cash_for_Honours
(b) Surby was suggesting it is ongoing
Cameron should try and get ahead of this issue and just release them now or it is all he will here about during conference season.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnexpress 2m
@PaulGoodmanCH @TimMontgomerie @thetimes @ConHome gosh, so now one UKIP member for every three Tory members and trend all going one way
Keep interest rates low and you risk asset bubbles and yield-seeking
Put interest rates up and you risk defaults, reposessions, capital losses at the banks and plunging the economy back into recession.
Given the choices I think he is following the right strategy: absorbing risk (and mitigating it with a tighter fiscal policy) while dodging the immediate problem.
I guess we should thank the government who left them such a golden economic legacy, right?
Don't forget the debt to GDP ratio was lower than Germany's even in May 2010. It is your failure to have growth which has caused the continuing deficit.
What deficit did Osborne predict in June 2010 for 2013-14 ?
Because he needs to try and actually rebuild his party. And that means admitting what you figures are and asking his members what they think he can do to get them back.
If a public limited company didn't issue these sorts of profit warnings it would be illegal!
Is quoting a mickey take from ConHome modded now? Weird. I recommend in that case that PBers Google Hastings and ConHome and Mark Wallace to find it.
Whether inflating an asset bubble via deregulated finance is the "right strategy" or not. I suppose time will tell, but recent history, when that approach sent most of the world into recession and deficit, suggests not.
Paul Goodman @PaulGoodmanCH
@oflynnexpress @TimMontgomerie My best guess would be slightly south of that: see tomorrow's @thetimes + @ConHome.
2009 - just out by a factor of 4 - £140 Bn extra.
Respondents gave it an average rating of 5.6 out of 10, compared with 4.3 out of 10 for Westminster.
Overall, 62% of respondents wanted to see increased powers for the assembly, including the 9% in favour of full independence, as against 24% favouring the current arrangements.
Beaufort Research interviewed a representative sample of 2,009 members of the Welsh population aged 16 and above between 21 May and 12 June 2013.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-23673014
About a 65%? decrease? Dave is a party member genius.
But we will carry with us this handicap without any complaint. We know it is your chosen system. We will just have to live with it.
You've Been Lied to About Carrots Your Whole Life Because of Nazis
You've probably heard the myth that eating lots of carrots will magically improve your vision. The bad news is that it's a total lie. The good news? It's one that helped the Allies defeat the Nazis. Here's the truth: Carrots are rich in beta carotene (Vitamin A), and thus, eating lots of carrots helps promote good eye health. That's a different thing entirely from vision; pumping yourself full of Vitamin A doesn't bring you any closer to 20/20 than doing push-ups all day would.
So why do we think carrots help us see better? Smithsonian Magazine reports the theory of John Stolarczyk, curator of the World Carrot Museum (Yes! It exists). According to Stolarczyk, the myth began during World War II, when the Nazis were bombing the bejeezus out of London at night. Then, seemingly out of no where, the British Royal Air Force started shooting down more Nazi planes. How did they do it? With the help of a new radar that the RAF, of course, did not want anybody to know about. Smithsonian explains:
The Royal Air Force were able to repel the German fighters in part because of the development of a new, secret radar technology. The on-board Airborne Interception Radar (AI), first used by the RAF in 1939, had the ability to pinpoint enemy bombers before they reached the English Channel. But to keep that under wraps, according to Stolarczyk’s research pulled from the files of the Imperial War Museum, the Mass Observation Archive, and the UK National Archives, the Ministry provided another reason for their success: carrots..." http://gizmodo.com/youve-been-lied-to-about-carrots-your-whole-life-becau-1124868510
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Cunningham_(RAF_officer)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/2146171.stm
Tories: 74k
UKIP: 61k
At the time of the 2015 general election. Good luck getting UKIP down to 5% with those figures...
Funny how certain things hang around. Apparently, public toilets in France were nicknamed something like Vespasiennes, after the emperor who charged for using public facilities in 1st century (AD) Rome.
Reducing the deficit as much as they have, while still not tipping the country back into recession is a decent achievement.
Let Surby advise"
Public Sector Net Debt at end fiscal year 2009-10 as % of GDP = 151.7%
Public Sector Net Debt at end fiscal year 2012-13 as % of GDP = 138.2%
Source: ONS, June 2013 Public Sector Finances Bulletin.
Not much need to be said really.
After @steverichards14 & @MaryRiddell, how long before @pollytoynbee changes her mind on the wrong Miliband?
You are of course right it is difficult to predict. But we can say the Tory membership is nose diving and UKIP is increase a significant amount.
What will it be like in 2 years time. I don't know. But I doubt the Tories are going to reverse that trend. Especially when they have a leader that is too weak to admit to his membership figures.
Don't forget that people join the *constituency* parties, not the central party. The constituencies are very jealous about sharing membership data (and may even be prevented by data protection).
I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a accurate national record of membership (e.g. when I voted for Cameron I was sent my ballot by my local association not nationally).
They tried to reform it back in Major's day but the local associations fought so hard that they gave up
Firstly you have spent several million pounds building a database that's main function is to centralise you membership! Don't give me that data protection crap.
And if Cameron really hasn't given it a moments thought then I am going to laugh myself silly. Some leader if he doesn't even care about his membership.
We may have a second rate govt, but the opposition is not even third rate; hence they are getting raked by chainshot and are nearly dismasted.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_system_of_the_Royal_Navy
Let Surby advise"
Germany: Government Debt to GDP ratio 2010 = 74.5%
UK Government Debt to GDP ratio 2010 = 151.7%
Only out by over 100% Surby!
The crisis that was caused by the very same finance bubble policies that Cameron and Osborne are now wedded to.
Well what evidence do you have to say that the trend will stop. Cameron has lost 160,000 members! I mean FFS why the hell should this suddenly stop.
Unlike all the Labour MPs clucking away in the media.
Who to believe?
Presumably quoting single sentances is permitted, otherwise twitter would disappear, and that would be a tragedy. innocent face ;-)
You have used the words: PB Tories.
Please name them so that we can be precise. When asked the same question both carl and tim bottled it and ran away. Will you do likewise?
I think regardless of the next election the Tories haven't got a party that's left. How Cameron has been allowed to lose over 160,000 members I will never ever know.
Well, Cameron and Osborne inherited a growing economy. More than can be said for most of their time in office.
Whether inflating an asset bubble via deregulated finance is the "right strategy" or not. I suppose time will tell, but recent history, when that approach sent most of the world into recession and deficit, suggests not.
Hmm if growth it was, it was only because we were at the tail end of Gordon's false debt fuelled strategy which was utterly unsustainable, bust the country and for which we will all be paying for a generation. Never mind the off the books PFIs, rail tracks et al, huge public sector pension entitlements, and a wrecked private sector pension system to fan the flames in the future. I wouldn't have put him in charge of a whelk stall never mind a country of 63m.
In that context the present lot have made a reasonable fist of a seriously crap hand they were dealt thus far - but but but I have serious concerns that things like the house deposit underwriting scheme ( forget its name ) are a Tory mini version of the same ie a debt fuelled boomlet to end ooh early in May 2015 I'd say, for which we will have to pay as surely as for Gordon's sins. Maybe we should prepare a second seafood emporium?
I wish to be treated like an adult by our politicians: we're broke, will be for a long time relatively and the world is getting ever more competitive. It's not hopeless, but is is if we keep playing bloody ostriches.
Strange measure of achievement. Most of Labour's time in office was characterised by VERY low Govt debt and deficit, and powering economic growth, until the financial crisis hit.
The crisis that was caused by the very same finance bubble policies that Cameron and Osborne are now wedded to.
The figures don't stack up, Carl.
Labour's first term (1997-2001) was definitely a paragon of prudent fiscal continence. But after the 2001 election, Blair let Mrs Rochester out of the attic. The consequences were disastrous (12% real terms increase in borrowing in first year of term) and not yet a thought for the impending global financial crisis in Brown's mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
I enjoyed your tale of the nurse, visiting homes to spread the message, earlier.
Sadly, her evening takes a turn for the worst when the unfortunate doorstep audience bring up the uncomfortable topic of the Killing Fields of Stafford.
(I'm rather amused that you are instructed you can "embiggen" the graph by clicking on it. "Embiggen" is a made up word, coined by Lisa Simpson; a perfectly cromulent word!)
What are you on about. Labour has 190,000 members. The scheme that enrolled people lasted about a year has now been scrapped and brought in no more than a couple of hundred.
As pointed out by the Ashcroft poll Labour could have almost a million members who sign up voluntarily.
So I would suggest there are about 193,000 people who would voluntary and independently become members now. And probably over a 1,000,000 if we got our act together.
Hmm if growth it was, it was only because we were at the tail end of Gordon's false debt fuelled strategy which was utterly unsustainable, bust the country and for which we will all be paying for a generation. Never mind the off the books PFIs, rail tracks et al, huge public sector pension entitlements, and a wrecked private sector pension system to fan the flames in the future. I wouldn't have put him in charge of a whelk stall never mind a country of 63m.
In that context the present lot have made a reasonable fist of a seriously crap hand they were dealt thus far - but but but I have serious concerns that things like the house deposit underwriting scheme ( forget its name ) are a Tory mini version of the same ie a debt fuelled boomlet to end ooh early in May 2015 I'd say, for which we will have to pay as surely as for Gordon's sins. Maybe we should prepare a second seafood emporium?
I wish to be treated like an adult by our politicians: we're broke, will be for a long time relatively and the world is getting ever more competitive. It's not hopeless, but is is if we keep playing bloody ostriches.
Some truth in that lot.
In Gordon and Tony's defence, they had no way to know that the bankers were running a big ponzi scheme that would send the world into terrible recession and Governments into horrific deficit. At least they spent some proceeds wisely, we certainly got better schools and hospitals etc.
In David and George's defence, they have to get growth, somehow, even if it's taking a leaf out of the previous Govt's "bubble and borrow, the bankers will look after us" book. At least some jobs are being created, real livelihoods being sustained for the time being, that might not otherwise.
What's the Mail fp legacy story?
Anyway, the Bowie exhibition live screening was a bit pants, especially if you've seen the exhibition. But then you can't get too much Bowie... though I did miss the first Mighty Rooks home game. Still, another home Clash on Saturday:
https://twitter.com/Lewes_cfc/status/367394472125935616/photo/1
Remember, the first rule of tautology club is the first rule of tautology club.