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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New LAB member polling highlights huge gulf between them, p
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New LAB member polling highlights huge gulf between them, party voters and electorate as a whole
There’s a huge amount in the data and the two charts above are the most striking. There’s a mismatch between those who select the leader and party voters and the electorate as a whole.
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@tombradby: The country had a population of 50,000 - a quarter of the size of the London Borough of Camden. And the deal was over 1 industry; fishing.
It's also a load of old confectioned bollox by the more excitable part of the Remain camp, Boris was quite clear that a double referendum was what he would do "in an ideal world" and last time I looked we are not in one of those. He then spent the next several paragraphs talking about negotiating free trade deals, not something you would do if you were rejoining, but that is being hand-waved away by the same people.
Out is quite clearly out, even Boris can see that, he is just in his rhetorical way pining for a more agreeable solution, which should not be confused for him thinking such is either available or achievable.
@tombradby: That can be extended if unanimously agreed. Given that it would be in everyone's interests for the UK to leave with a deal in place...
@tombradby: ...I think a sensible time frame might be five to ten years. Don't you think?
@tombradby: Or to put it another way; whatever we decide, nothing is likely to happen quickly.
If 1 tiny country takes 3 years to negotiate 1 industry, how long will Brexit actually take?
Cos nobody gives a crap about Switzerland, right?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6941083/BBC-plunged-into-bias-row-by-refusing-to-publish-records-of-pro-and-anti-EU-coverage-during-referendum-campaign.html
However, it's going to be extremely complex. Two years looks tight, I wouldn't be surprised if there's an extension to the Article 50 period. But it won't be as long as five years.
(assuming a Leave result, of course!)
If, on the other hand, we rejoin EFTA and the EEA, then it could probably be done in 18 months.
The EU will see it as important to conclude exit terms with Britain. It almost certainly will not see it as particularly urgent as compared with the other things in its lap at any given moment.
Britain is not going to get a clear idea of its agreed exit terms for a considerable time.
Good afternoon all. After a few months away from PB.com post-General Election, I return to this site when another huge moment arrives for the country. This website really is superb for discussing the big issues.
Could anyone direct me to where I can download the actual final agreement Cameron got from last week's summit? Also I heard an excellent extract from a comment Tony Benn made about the EC (as was) severing the umbilical cord of democracy - anyone know this quotation? Thanks in advance.
The other problem is that most Leftie-ism involves spending other people's money, which becomes a problem when they don't have any left. It also needs to not to involve fantasies about dropping huge levels of tax on to highly mobile corporations or high net worth individuals.
Finally, for a lot of voters, running up large amounts of debt to fund public spending = crap, which is why Osborne's light is getting tarnished rather fast.
The dafter the claims, the more convincing Leave becomes.
GB and Lab voters choose Health / Immigration / The Economy as top 3
Lab members choose Health / Housing / The Economy
And even housing and immigration are different proxies for expressing quite similar underlying concerns.
'@tombradby: Preparing for the @agendaitv tonight, encountered this; When Greenland left in 1982, it spent 3 years negotiating a trade deal with the EEC.
Is Greenland a major importer of German cars ?
What countries, if any, does the EFTA have a trade deal with that the EU doesn't?
What countries, if any, does the EU have a trade deal with that the EFTA doesn't?
More silly hand waving
@maitlis: As long as #article50 hasn't been invoked #EUreferendum
Unlucky...
Ukraine is largely an irrelevancy; Canada is likely to be resolved by the much bigger EU-Canada bi-lateral deal.
Right now Labour is both too left wing and too crap.
A businessman? Stuart Rose? Richard Branson?
A Civil Servant? GOD? ??
Politician? Micheal Gove? Boris Johnston? Nick Clegg?
Other? Eddie Izzard? Gordon Brown? Hogan-Howe? Kieth Richard?
Switzerland as a result has a FTA deal with China , Hong Kong, Japan and most of South America, which the EU does not.
http://www.seco.admin.ch/themen/00513/00515/01330/04619/?lang=en
It's ok, they'll be unable to read and write in two languages.
I wouldn't point to the Swiss-Chinese deal personally; it was massively lopsided in favour of the Chinese.
And shut the mini, Rolls Royce, Bentley and Vauxhall factories in the UK.
"Hey, let's play Russian Roulette with a 9mm automatic..."
Inventors & scientists move to lower tax places. And vice versa. https://t.co/UX5HsVYb7G
HT @JimRose69872629 https://t.co/WyTJu7E0St
It's really rather weird. And it's not wearing off.
Boris vs Cameron at 1530. Will ketamine be required?
Which is a dwindling number by the looks of things.
Likewise, for the crucial issue of Swiss watches, the concession... da da... was to take tariffs down from 12.5% to 7.5% over ten years!
In return for which, the Swiss basically allowed pretty much all Chinese goods in without tariff.
I would not be in favour of handing the trigger to BoJo, but I am not in favour of disarmament
You mean once this falsehood is repeated enough times
re Health, "no difference between England and Wales according to the OECD"
http://www.healthbusinessuk.net/news/12022016/nhs-wales-no-better-or-worse-england-says-oecd
https://t.co/pPVUYnJ66r
1. Swingeing penalties for companies that employ people without correct paperwork, ie directors going to jail.
2. Big incentives for illegal immigrants to shop employers that offer them illegal work, such as a work permit.
3. Complete ban on rough sleeping, balanced by a lot of free hostels and other sleeping places opening
4. No benefits for people that do not have the correct paperwork.
So if you apply properly, play by the rules, turn up, obey the law, and work, you get treated just like everyone else. If you take the piss, break the law, or try and bend the rules, it goes hard for you.
- What should intervention look like given successes (eventually) like ex-Yugoslavia and conspicuous failures like Iraq? (answer to be found somewhere on the cautious left)
- Any government system obviously means redistribution of some form, but given 97-10 increased inequality, what is the optimal amount of that? (answer on the left somewhere)
- Business (de)regulation failed badly in the crash, but what should sensible regulated capitalism look like (answer in the moderate left and in history)
- The long-term blight of high economic inactivity triggered and the role of monetarism and globalisation in that (traditionally left, but willing to consider that the right may have some answers here)
The main challenge from the right is:
- Did government spend too much - Brown spent on the toppish end from a low-debt base, in a way that would have been very manageable in a 2% 2yr downturn, but was very difficult and we are just about squeaking it in a 6% 6yr downturn. (the challenge may come from the right, but I've not come to the same conclusions as the right)
The trouble was the answers from Labour were too piecemeal, not that they too left wing, but that there was no narrative thread.
However, only a half-wit would fail to ask what is behind sterling being marked down on Brexit fears.
Really, Plato was complaining about daft arguments. The argument that there is no likelihood of short- to medium-term economic damage on a Leave result is utterly bonkers. Sane Leavers should accept it and move on, arguing that it's an acceptable cost. They could even argue with some credibility that it would be a temporary effect only, and that we'd recover the lost ground in a couple of years' time.
But arguing that there won't be any effect over the transition period is just silly.
If you want to be popular in the Labour party you need to confront Benn and Kendall.
On europe.
A free trade deal is easy due to the massive goods deficit, put the squeeze on Ireland and you get your way on free movement of people and agriculture goods.
The big battle will be on services, where every EU capital will imagine it's self being the new financial capital, though there is an obvious opportunity for divide and conquer.
On the GOP race.
New poll out from Massachusetts (voting in 9 days) by Emerson:
https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/701597982194540544
Not won a contest and is the proud possessor of 10 delegates out of the 103 decided so far...
politico.eu/article/full-text-of-deal-changing-britain-eu-membership-brexit-referendum/
If Labour win in 2025 the economy will get screwed by probably more than an order of magnitude more than the projected change for BrExit, and we will get nothing for it. Yet you are quibbling about a economic cost of a fraction of that amount for the ability to open new markets and trade with new partners. I find you lack of faith (in your country) disturbing
Right now, that is a pretty big assumption.
Which part of this are Boris and his fans struggling with?
Trump's POTUS price is huge.
(a) Sterling is falling partly because of Brexit fears
(b) That is because of concerns that the economy will be damaged by Brexit in the short- to medium-term.
So can we all now stop pretending otherwise?
zzzz Richard this really is a very old rhetorical trick you are trying you know. Stake out a position that's not quite as extreme as the one your side is pushing and invite 'reasonable' people to join you in the 'centre' which you yourself have defined.
Then you tell us 'aha they accept xx billion of economic damage is likely'.
Sorry not playing that silly game
The summary is that, having done the right thing and saved and saved, I am going to be screwed over by the government if my savings do well and taxed at penal rates. Even so the amount that the government will allow me will not bring me untold riches in retirement. Meanwhile MPs get a fantastic pension not subject to any of the restrictions or penal taxation inflicted on us plebs.
And there is also the risk that Osborne will hammer pensions even more in next month's Budget.
As always, those who try and do the right thing get screwed over in this country.
At this precise moment, I could not care less about the arguments, ishoos or personalities. What I intend doing with my vote at whatever opportunity comes my way is to use it to send a rocket up the arse of the smug, self-satisfied, plundering, ignorant political class.
Bush was polling for months in single digits even going down bellow 5% but the betting markets still had him as the favourite until late October.
Leaving EU 'big gamble'...
And it will be this for another 100 days.
This is one reason why I think both sides would want to put in place a new deal as soon as possible.
Maybe the BBC should be more careful when there's two high profile Johnson's in the news..
The conclusion that there is not a huge difference between the health services was based on life expectancy, where England leads Wales by a year or two, who in turn leads Scotland by a year or two.
There are some useful NHS Wales reports in the public domain which highlight the real issues for the Welsh health system.
As a user of the Welsh system, it's (as you might expect) a curate's egg.
Oh well that proves it then.
Please...
The fall is insignificant, utterly insignificant, Sterling has move 4 cents against the dollar this week, three of those four happened before Boris.
Sterling has moved 9% in the last year, so you will forgive me if I don't get that excited about your projections of losing 1-2% per year.
UK GDP got completely shafted by Labour for no return, and that is going to happen periodically because fortunes rise and fall, and yet you quibbled about a much smaller short term hit on GDP with the prospect of substantial increases later.
Your scare story isn't very scary, and your timidity is selling your country and your grand children short.