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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wins for Clinton and Trump in the latest contests
One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects.
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If I was a Septic I would be tempted to back
the nutterMcAfee for Prez. What a sad choice they will have.McAfee is dead right on the recent Apple fuss.
http://www.businessinsider.com/john-mcafee-ill-decrypt-san-bernardino-phone-for-free-2016-2 Before Flightpath jumps in here and asks what he knows about Cyber Security... Google "cybersecurity legend"
As well as Trump, Cruz, and Rubio, who else is left in the Republican contest? Just wondering if Bush's withdrawal is the last big shot Rubio has of gaining ground.
Edited extra bit: I think McLaren launch their car later today. Picture of it on Twitter makes it a look a bit angular.
Perhaps Robert should design a gizmo that tells everyone who comments on, and who off topic.
On F1 - this is the last shot at restoring the sport's reputation. Another season like the last two and the prototype era could be over.
Hilary Clinton Will Be The Forty Fifth President Of The United States
I do agree the sport really needs a strong season. Mercedes' dominance (especially last year when, until near the end, Rosberg was off the pace) is grating.
If Ferrari maintain the pace of closing the gap, they may be able to take the fight to the Silver Arrows.
There are some other causes for concern. Question marks remain over Monza, whilst F1 bigwigs have decided the best calendar slot for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is Le Mans weekend. So, Hulkenberg can't defend the title he won (with two other chaps, of course). It's just dickish.
The rule is: Winner- Take all ( by district and statewide )
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/SC-R
She makes too many such misunderstandings, but that's a different problem, and that would still not ruin her chances against Mr Trump.
The problem I have is that the season starts and then that's it. Not so long ago it felt like the teams were developing the cars as the season went along and that gaps could be overcome. Maybe it's just that the switch to the V6 turbos favoured Mercedes so much that that's been the limiting factor and developments have been carrying on elsewhere. But I'll probably watch the first race - if it's on Sky Sports 1 or 2 - and decide if I can be bothered to watch any more.
On that last point, in 2017 unrestricted development of the engine will be permitted, but they'll still start from a likely lineup of Mercedes/Ferrari being fast, Renault being a bit rubbish, and Honda being atrocious (unless they've made drastic improvements for this season).
Can this be correct ?
EDIT: It is this one. Actually "Candidate raised". Whatever that means ?
Look at Jeb Bush. Money cannot buy everything.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0
I suppose there is still a demand from the F1 teams to build their own cars. But with engines being the limiting factor the teams that aren't production car manufacturers are at a disadvantage. I know you don't have much time for RedBull but I have much more respect for the race teams - the garagistas - rather than the big car manufacturers who use the sport for advertising.
I can't see Ferrari, McLaren or Mercedes being willing to go down the route you suggest.
That certainly helps the cross party credentials. Tory, Labour and UKIP MPs. GO has Labour and Tory.
Anyone know when the Electoral Commission decides?
Sorry to hear of your position issues (ahem).
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/701150835917660160
I am good on Kasich and Cruz though. Rubio is trouble for me.
Gulp.
You also have to go back to 1948 for the last time any candidate (Stassen) won two of the first three contests and then failed to go on to gain the nomination, although GHW Bush won two of the first four in 1980, of which Massachusetts and Vermont were on the same day, after Iowa and New Hampshire (but then as Reagan also won two of the first four, one candidate had to miss out).
Maybe this year is different, with its unusually large field this far into the race, and with no establishment-friendly candidate winning primaries so far. But with his substantial national lead heading into peak primary season, it's difficult to see beyond Trump now.
YouGov: George Galloway (positivity -61) ranks 2099th out of 2215 public figures they track for public appeal https://t.co/N5BACgPCph
If Hillary does fall to legal issues, then I can see Biden moving back into place as first reserve.
Bush at least has done the decent thing and it'll be interesting to see how much of his support Kasich picks up.
I seriously hope that Vote Leave are the official organisation.
I mean, they've had loose mouthed and gaffe-prone Presidents before.
But let's face it, Trump is so far ahead that the rest are all dead too.
The President shall be Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy of the United States, and of the Militia of the several States, when called into the actual Service of the United States; he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any Subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices, and he shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offenses against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.
That's reinforced in Article One, on Congress' powers. There's nothing in the constitution to limit the scope of impeachment (on the contrary: "The House of Representatives ... shall have the sole Power of Impeachment." That implies the House's powers override any other consideration.
#Brexit fact of the day:@bbc5live reports @BBCR1 @BBCNewsbeat poll suggesting 75% of 18-25 yo listeners do not know what a 'referendum' is.
Whilst if he plays a leadership role in Leave, even if not successful on 23 June, he'll demonstrate leadership ability.
To reach the result they published they had to weight up under 55s enormously and even then the small number of young people they reached seemed largely oblivious to recent events.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-35604776?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_england&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=english_regions
Bolsover District Council has pledged to investigate the "unacceptable" division of this room - straight down the middle of the window
Police say they have safety concerns about overcrowded houses in the town where one of Europe's largest sports retailers is based.
Sports Direct employs at least 3,500 agency workers at its site in Shirebrook, Derbyshire.
While filming in the town, the BBC was shown houses "carved into flats", including one with rooms partitioned down the middle of its windows.
Bolsover Council admitted it was caught off guard by the influx of workers.
Figures obtained by the BBC also show 46 housing complaints relating to overcrowding, repairs and conditions were made from April 2015 to 21 December last year - up from 16 in 2005 to 2006.
Housing complaints relating to overcrowding and conditions have almost tripled in 10 years
The Sports Direct agency workers, largely employed in the company's warehouse, come mainly from Eastern European countries like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Albania.
They're great ads, showing how many countries want to trade with us - but curiously it's extremely hard to see the call to action. It's in teeny font for a few seconds at the end. Either it's terrible crafting or deliberately trying to just set a mood.
Edit, made by the Treasury
https://youtu.be/Dbqja-aBEIs
Romney picked Ryan on August 11, 2012
McCain picked Palin on August 29, 2008
Obama picked Biden August 23, 2008
Kerry picked Edwards July 6, 2004
Gore picked Lieberman Aug 8, 2000
Dole picked Kemp Aug 10, 1996
Clinton picked Gore July 9, 1992
Not sure Bush leaving will help Rubio as much as BF punters think, it might help him in Florida but beyond that Bush's vote may end up splitting evenly between Rubio, Kasich and Trump.
The field has been left completely open for him, Gove's raised the stakes, warmed him up nicely as the intro act and the eyes of the nation are on him.
So he really has nothing to lose, but he does have to fight hard, and quite a bit to win.
If he doesn't do it, he's finished.
(Admittedly helped by being preceded by Labour's completely inept Kate Hoey)
It would be very dubious if the President could grant immunity from prosecution!
1. In the next month.
Result: Sanders is nominated. It's too late for anyone else to enter the primary race and Sanders would win the majority of states after the event giving him enough delegates to take the nomination outright.
2. Between late-March and mid-April.
Result: Probably Biden. By late March, it should be too late for Sanders to win a majority of delegates once superdelegates are included. If Hillary fell at that point, it'd either end with a contested convention or with her withdrawal in favour of a third candidate (who wouldn't be on the ballots but Hillary would and her delegates would then become free agents).
3. Between mid-April and the convention.
Result: Probably Hillary, perhaps Biden. Hillary should have an outright majority of delegates by this stage and so even if she is arrested, she's in a strong position to dictate terms as long as leaked evidence doesn't look too damning. I could well see her fight on.
4. Between the convention and formal filing deadlines.
Result: As above, except the running mate becomes the beneficiary if she stands back. Depends on how far the legal process has gone, but there would be time for the DNC to nominate someone else if she was forced to withdraw.
5. Between the formal filings and the Electoral College vote.
Result: chaos. Her name would be on the ballot (or on the votes already cast) but a withdrawal at that stage would still give the nominated electors the chance to vote for someone else but in some states only. Some states legally mandate electors to vote as directed and those would have to go to Hillary. The Republican would almost certainly win anyway.
6. After the Electoral College vote.
Result: impeachment or resignation. She becomes president; she goes.
"It's clear now that the United Kingdom should never have joined the European Union."
http://tinyurl.com/jmcocgc
1) he will have to lead the charge if he is going to maintain his position as a big beast
2) he risks coming under brutal mortar on his own inconsistency and character from the Remain side - the gloves will be off
3) he has to weigh nicely just how hard he can fight in return without debarring himself from Cabinet office after 23 June
He has a tricky path ahead and he will need all his skills to pick his way along it.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/701324550047473664
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/701324824208138240
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/701325108619694080