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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meels looks at the theory of referendum motivation
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Alastair Meels looks at the theory of referendum motivation
At the height of the Second World War, Abraham Maslow unveiled an important new theory of psychology. Synthesising physical and higher needs, he arranged the drivers of human behaviour in the form of a pyramid. At the bottom, he placed physiological needs – the physical impulses that drive every animal. Above that he placed safety and security needs. Rising further up the pyramid, he pla…
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Jesus.
On topic, I guess this would explain Dave's attempts to link leaving the EU with an increase in immigration. Unfortunately the electorate are quite good at working out when a politician is talking complete b*******.
"The newly appointed national leaders of the group include people who have defended violence, described the 2011 riots as an “uprising against the police”, banned participation in Remembrance Day, stood for election against the Labour Party, committed voter fraud, or were suspended from Labour for supporting a second convicted election fraudster"
"If your MP is voting in Parliament against the policies that Jeremy won the leadership with, it is absolutely essential that left-wingers organise to trigger reselection'"
Momentum activist Simon Hewitt
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/12156177/momentum-activists-jeremy-corbyn-labour-purge.html
"A diplomatic row erupted between Britain and Germany last night after a senior ally of Angela Merkel was accused of threatening a trade war if Britain quits the EU.
Prominent German MP Gunther Krichbaum said the UK ‘cannot survive’ on its own and raised the spectre of crippling trade tariffs on British exports should we vote to leave the union.
Mr Krichbaum’s warning came in a clash with senior Tory MP Sir Bill Cash, who accused the German politician of ‘threatening’ Britain.
Sir Bill said Britain had fought Germany in two world wars to keep its freedoms and was not going to surrender them to a German-run Brussels now."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3446048/Fury-Angela-Merkel-s-attack-dog-threatens-UK-trade-war-Brexit-claims-t-survive-without-us.html#ixzz407Z609sZ
"European judges have forced Britain to pay back billions in tax to multinational companies, overturning the decisions of British chancellors going back more than 40 years. "
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3446041/UK-forced-pay-43-BILLION-tax-giant-companies-thanks-surprise-surprise-EU-courts.html#ixzz407fXeJpe
That's why the "remain" camp pushes on "3m jobs lost" and "migrant camps in Kent" - and why parts of the Leave campaign put immigration front and centre.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/13/jeremy-corbyn-condemns-tory-limits-eu-migration
It "for Obama to fill provided that the GOP-controlled Senate ratifies his choice
I'd imagine that Obama know he doesn't have a hope in hell of getting anyone approved this side of the election.
So he will put up a candidate that allows Republicans to make fools of themselves on minorities, guns, gay marriage, etc, all on prime time TV.
I was under the impression that the Calais camp (and elsewhere) was filled with people who have no more to do with the EU than the man in the moon does.
More generally, Maslow's hierarchy can be simplified thus: conservatives behave naturally, liberals in a civilised fashion. Vide my debate with David Herdson, passim.
Loved the Rubio Cruz Spanish spat, hilarious.
Similarly, stating that the NHS is a top concern is probably a proxy, for many people, of stating that their concern is with the economy, albeit from a left wing perspective (i.e. they are opposed to austerity).
I found that these "issues facing Britain" polls aligned particularly badly with the results of GE2015.
I rather like the hierarchy of needs.
That said, immigration and the EU right now have an enormous overlap, in the same way income tax and Westminster would, but most people would identify the issue, not the political framework behind it, as the potential area of concern.
If 46% are worried about immigration, then that is helpful for the Leave campaign, provided the level of concern is at least equal to other worries.
A problem with surveys like this is that 'most important' issues aren't ranked. Suppose I tick immigration, the economy, and the EU. I might feel that we need to be in the EU for economic security, and that immigration is behind those two factors. Or I might feel we're vulnerable to large immigration due to being a member. Either interpretation would make sense.
Though EU is a more complex issue than immigration. Not least because the immigrants that people most object to are from outside the EU, the migrants in Calais and elsewhere.
Surely the reporters know 90% of their audience doesn't have a clue?
:bring-back-antifrank:
1) Cash is bonkers.. and 2) never believe any reporting by the Daily Jackboot.
https://t.co/LXtwvf4iVu
@HTScotPol: SNP Government announces controversial fracking research https://t.co/al2Dylcg8S
Deteriating terms of trade with the EU are a real risk of exit.
15% and 45% chances respectively, think the gap is too great.
Do you have credible evidence for this remarkable claim?
And while I'm on Scotland, there's a very nice little video out from Brewdog:
http://vimeo.com/154962219
Context for anyone living in a bucket:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9znA_dwjHw
Corbynistas are only concerned that he offers a credible alternative to Blairism....
"That Trump brought up this fact is incredible. That he did so in South Carolina is even moreso. South Carolina is a military state, with a hierarchical political culture that makes its conservative voters loyal to their past leaders. It is not an accident that Jeb Bush waited until South Carolina to bring his brother out to the stump, or that it is the state where Ted Cruz emphasized his opposition to drafting women in the military. "
"As Trump has defied his skeptics, evaluations of his political acumen have grudgingly embraced the conclusion that there is a method to his madness. But on Saturday night, he took the madness to a completely new level. By the normal standards of politics, Trump swallowed enough poison to kill himself ten times over. If he survives, it will be the strongest evidence that he has forged a connection with Republican voters that resides beyond any plane visible to the rest of us."
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/02/most-heretical-debate-yet-trump-attacks-w.html?mid=twitter-share-di
Also praising planned parenthood !
A problem the pro-EU position has is that the idealistic aspect of the EU (for people that allow that it exists) really addresses a tier 5 need whereas the traditional nation-state inspires at the tier 4 level, as you say. At a purely abstract level the nation does matter more to more people (perhaps, following Maslow, because most people have unmet tier 4 needs and are suspicious of politics which smacks of tier 5).
Of course, people on both sides try to connect back to tier 2 concerns. Who wins the referendum may depend on who does that most convincingly.
In some ways the whole difficulty for the pro-EU side, down the years, has been that no politician has wanted to try to sell the tier 5-ish EU so they have emphasised tier 2 and nothing else. The problem with that is that the EU looks over-engineered for its purpose, unless you get quite imaginative with your tier 2 threats. Hence, the insistence that it should just be a free trade area without parliaments, presidents, constitutions and courts. It's hard to explain how the whole panoply of the EU addresses tier 2 needs so one ends up with "it needs reform but we're better off in" as the default Remain view.
I'm not sure about this really but it does remind me of something Sean_F said last night: that Remain has already lost on the emotional level but might still win on the rational level.
Sounds like a messy debate but Trump still on top, no change then. Audience composed of the Lindsey Graham Ladies Home Garden Club, again.
https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/698723264244293632
Iraq is a useful meme that will help Trump build his favorable rating nationally.
Ern Malley
twenty seven years. https://t.co/BRBZpYRFRz
Of the 161 Conservative pledges made at the election: 40 are GREEN (delivered), 111 AMBER (some progress), 10 RED (little or no progress)
I wonder if Cammo will wheel Betty out again, as he did before the Scots' referendum, to ask people to "think before you vote". Even if she agreed with him (and I expect she did, that time at least) neither of them had any business compromising the political impartiality of the monarchy in that way.
I doubt they would even consider such a trade war it would to all intents be impossible anyway if not illegal. It's just part of the whole charade of the EU approach to our referendum and orchestrated to put fear into us for daring to want to make our own mind up. Such comments would not have been made without Merkels knowledge of course. That's Merkel the real leader of Europe that we have to get our PM to ask permission from whenever we actually want to do anything if you remember.
I'm busy watching almost year old Monumental Mysteries on my dvr. I do love Don Wildman.
When we will see the Lylelettes agin
That fought and lied against
The Boswells etc.,
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14275558.Secret_recording_reveals_depth_of_SNP_infighting/
Just artillery though as the Turks will be annihilated by the Syrian and Russian airforces if they cross the border.
The relentless advance of the SAA continues regardless.
Didn't The Indy just send him on some spurious training course? It was pathetic management response.
Straight bananas eh!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35572640
Kagan isn't even ethnic minority so don't know your point there.
Sotomayor was nominated to the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York by President George H. W. Bush in 1991; confirmation followed in 1992. In 1997, she was nominated by President Bill Clinton to theU.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. Her nomination was slowed by the Republicanmajority in the United States Senate, but she was eventually confirmed in 1998. On the Second Circuit, Sotomayor heard appeals in more than 3,000 cases and wrote about 380 opinions. Sotomayor has taught at the New York University School of Law and Columbia Law School.
Yeah, but she's a Jewish woman, so she's only there because of tokenism
<</channeling london bob>>
Kagan: 3 months
Sotomayor: 2 months
Alito: 2 months
Meirs: withdrawn same month
Roberts: 2 months (well, two attempts at one month each)
Breyer: 2 months
Ginsburg: 2 months
Thomas: 3 months
Souter: 3 months
Kennedy: 3 months
Bork: 3 months (rejected 1987)
Scalia: 3 months
Rehnquist: 3 months
The GOP debate sounds about as bad as it could be for the GOP. Trump will likely win SC but not perhaps as convincingly as the polls suggest but the spectacle of an irritable group of candidates tearing lumps out of each other won't help the GOP overall in what has been a miserable 24 hours for them.
Unhelpful comments from Germany but all part of the referendum campaigning talk so nothing of substance. As would have happened had Scotland voted YES, once the vote happens, harmony replaces acrimony and conciliation replaces confrontation. If we vote to LEAVE, everyone will make sure it's as smooth and painless a process as possible because it's in everyone's interests to do so.
Kerry's line is what you would expect from the White House - there's no doubt (and never has been) the US wants the UK in the EU.
Then of course you have the nuanced version of Project Fear where everything is about "security". In a frightening world, frightened people cling on to anything and regular updates to keep them frightened always helps. To suggest LEAVE hasn't presented a coherent vision of life outside the EU would be valid, to somehow suggest being outside the EU compromises our security is absurd. We might be leaving the EU, we're not leaving NATO for all that some have reasonable doubts about the alliance's viability.
Fortunately we have the comfort of being in another Cold War (apparently) and it's back to the certainties of 1945-89 when the Russian super-soldier was just a Polaris missile away from destroying everything British and creating an Orwellian dystopia.
Yep, the more things change, the more we are told they stay the same.
We now pay more for our food because of the EU. We pay more for our heating bills because of the EU. We pay more for our insurance because of the EU. Our energy security is in danger because of the EU.
Of course the Europhiles have been hugely successful at making sure the EU is not blamed for all of this but in the end the EU costs us vast amounts of money and adversely affects our lives every single day.
Ever heard of the commonwealth?
Pakistan India?
Your favourite country, China... where does it stand on our immigrant stakes. I suppose you will be happy with Canadian immigrants, but tell us how many Canadian Citizens are immigrants, tell us what proportion of Canadian population is immigrant.
Weirdly, my grass and local road are once again crisply white. I seem to recall reading an article to the effect that my kids would not know what snow was....
You've just declared you're a superior being.