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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It

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  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the LDs have vote a real vote winner here..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10224801/Lib-Dems-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-UK-roads-by-2040.html

    "Lib Dems: ban petrol and diesel cars from UK roads by 2040"

    That's actually very clever. It looks like Clegg buying off the open-toed sandal brigade with a barmy policy so far in the future (and in any case illegal under EU law) that its practical effect is precisely zero, in order to get them to accept some semblance of sanity on fracking, which is a rather more pressing issue.
    All our company cars are now dual powered: petrol or diesel/electric.
    The latest one will do 100 miles on electric and can be home-charged.

    2040 depends on battery technology and domestic/work charging facility. However I do not see heavy goods traffic being electric by then, unless we put a lot of freight back to rail - one problem: we have built on most of the goods/marshalling yards.

    Wonderful - lets have tax breaks for these vehichles and ramp up the road tax on the worst polluting cars - as has been done.

    But talk of banning is illiberal..



    More fun Mr H is with a drastic reduction of £30bn from fuel duty will we have a reduction in govt spending or just have to shove up all the taxes on other things ?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    More red on Ed action

    http://order-order.com/2013/08/06/mp-attacks-ed-for-incompetent-message-with-incompetent-attack/

    "summer of discontent" lol

    wonderful line by the mp in question

    “Only a third of the 2010 deficit was due to Labour investing above earnings”

    Well thats ok then
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    RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Pulpstar said:

    So Cameron to ban the booze, Labour to ban the fags and the Lib Dems to ban the cars ?

    And UKIP to ban the pretty Croatian girls
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the LDs have vote a real vote winner here..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10224801/Lib-Dems-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-UK-roads-by-2040.html

    "Lib Dems: ban petrol and diesel cars from UK roads by 2040"

    That's actually very clever. It looks like Clegg buying off the open-toed sandal brigade with a barmy policy so far in the future (and in any case illegal under EU law) that its practical effect is precisely zero, in order to get them to accept some semblance of sanity on fracking, which is a rather more pressing issue.
    All our company cars are now dual powered: petrol or diesel/electric.
    The latest one will do 100 miles on electric and can be home-charged.

    2040 depends on battery technology and domestic/work charging facility. However I do not see heavy goods traffic being electric by then, unless we put a lot of freight back to rail - one problem: we have built on most of the goods/marshalling yards.

    Wonderful - lets have tax breaks for these vehichles and ramp up the road tax on the worst polluting cars - as has been done.

    But talk of banning is illiberal..



    More fun Mr H is with a drastic reduction of £30bn from fuel duty will we have a reduction in govt spending or just have to shove up all the taxes on other things ?
    What has happened to total fuel duty revenues over last 15 years since cars got more economical and hybrids became popular ?

    Suspect the economy going up and down (under Labour) has more impact ?

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the LDs have vote a real vote winner here..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10224801/Lib-Dems-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-UK-roads-by-2040.html

    "Lib Dems: ban petrol and diesel cars from UK roads by 2040"

    That's actually very clever. It looks like Clegg buying off the open-toed sandal brigade with a barmy policy so far in the future (and in any case illegal under EU law) that its practical effect is precisely zero, in order to get them to accept some semblance of sanity on fracking, which is a rather more pressing issue.
    All our company cars are now dual powered: petrol or diesel/electric.
    The latest one will do 100 miles on electric and can be home-charged.

    2040 depends on battery technology and domestic/work charging facility. However I do not see heavy goods traffic being electric by then, unless we put a lot of freight back to rail - one problem: we have built on most of the goods/marshalling yards.

    Wonderful - lets have tax breaks for these vehichles and ramp up the road tax on the worst polluting cars - as has been done.

    But talk of banning is illiberal..



    More fun Mr H is with a drastic reduction of £30bn from fuel duty will we have a reduction in govt spending or just have to shove up all the taxes on other things ?
    What has happened to total fuel duty revenues over last 15 years since cars got more economical and hybrids became popular ?

    Suspect the economy going up and down (under Labour) has more impact ?

    I was looking for the total amount raised and could only find this from the BBC saying it was £26bn in 2010

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/11451180

    I was surprised at the size of that number, but if it is correct, stopping petrol just means it has to be collected elsewhere or the spending cut out. Which one sounds more likely ?
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    currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    20 months before the last general election had the tories poll rating fallen below 40% very often, if at all? I am surprised that OGH thinks that the Labour poll rating cannot fall as at the moment they have no policies and are in reality just a protest vote against the coalition. Now they may produce policies and have a dynamic and successful 20 months that it causes their poll rating to rise past 40% in the election, and maybe they wont.

    I would have thought that the lesson of the Scottish Election is that party poll ratings can be dramatically changed during an election campaign.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    TGOHF said:

    I think the LDs have vote a real vote winner here..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10224801/Lib-Dems-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-UK-roads-by-2040.html

    "Lib Dems: ban petrol and diesel cars from UK roads by 2040"

    The Lib/Dems won't be around by 2040, (neither will I, unless I live 'till 106). It's all a nonsense.
    Promising heaven in the future is an old con trick, but worthy of the Lib/dems.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited August 2013
    currystar said:


    I would have thought that the lesson of the Scottish Election is that party poll ratings can be dramatically changed during an election campaign.

    The difference is that Sottish Labour were led by a wildly uncharismatic leader, who didn't inspire confidence in any of his senior team, who was regularly criticised and failed to set out a compelling vision or set of policies.

    One Nation Labour have Ed Miliband...
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    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TGOHF said:

    Betfair Indy ref (majority)

    YES 5.4-6.8
    NO 1.17-1.21



    I still expect Yes to win.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.
  • Options

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    TGOHF said:

    I think the LDs have vote a real vote winner here..

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/10224801/Lib-Dems-ban-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-UK-roads-by-2040.html

    "Lib Dems: ban petrol and diesel cars from UK roads by 2040"

    That's actually very clever. It looks like Clegg buying off the open-toed sandal brigade with a barmy policy so far in the future (and in any case illegal under EU law) that its practical effect is precisely zero, in order to get them to accept some semblance of sanity on fracking, which is a rather more pressing issue.
    All our company cars are now dual powered: petrol or diesel/electric.
    The latest one will do 100 miles on electric and can be home-charged.

    2040 depends on battery technology and domestic/work charging facility. However I do not see heavy goods traffic being electric by thenunles/blockquote>

    Wonderful - lets have tax breaks for these vehichles and ramp up the road tax on the worst polluting cars - as has been done.

    But talk of banning is illiberal..



    More fun Mr H is with a drastic reduction of £30bn from fuel duty will we have a reduction in govt spending or just have to shove up all the taxes on other things ?
    What has happened to total fuel duty revenues over last 15 years since cars got more economical and hybrids became popular ?

    Suspect the economy going up and down (under Labour) has more impact ?

    I was looking for the total amount raised and could only find this from the BBC saying it was £26bn in 2010

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/11451180

    I was surprised at the size of that number, but if it is correct, stopping petrol just means it has to be collected elsewhere or the spending cut out. Which one sounds more likely ?
    If someone came up with a car that ran on tapwater, with zero environmental impact, the government of the day would still have to raise the same amount of cash. They'd just put it on road tax or something. One thing is certain, Joe Public will never benefit financially from any green initiative.

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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 2m
    ComRes poll:Labour 37% Conservatives 34% UKIP 12%; LibDems 10%

    Is this a new poll? or one a day or two old?

    Must be new surely - I doubt Lord A would be posting about polls released several days ago. Perhaps Mike S knows for whom it was commissioned.

    Looks increasingly as if the Labour lead has fallen a further notch to 3-5 from 6-7.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Plato said:

    Chuka Umuna..Is he a male model..he can't really be a serious contender for leader of the Labour Party..can he?..is he the best they can do...the lad spends too much time in front of his mirror..

    Chuka is the worst form of £3k New Labour suit. He sucks up to any issue to climb the greasy pole and is the grandson of a senior judge. He also referred to those who didn't get in to his preferred nightclub as trash.

    If the Tories had someone like him - he'd be dead in the water already.
    He'd be Prime Minister already.

    I share your disregard for the Honourable Member for Streatham and Spin but let's not pretend he's doing anything novel.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    JohnO said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 2m
    ComRes poll:Labour 37% Conservatives 34% UKIP 12%; LibDems 10%

    Is this a new poll? or one a day or two old?

    Must be new surely - I doubt Lord A would be posting about polls released several days ago. Perhaps Mike S knows for whom it was commissioned.

    Looks increasingly as if the Labour lead has fallen a further notch to 3-5 from 6-7.
    Nope it is the Comres Independent poll from July 30th .

  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How is Labour's big economic relaunch going then?

    @RicHolden
    Chief economist at Berenberg Bank said: “There isn’t really another way of describing the data coming out of the UK at the minute. Just wow”

    I blame Osborne
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    isamisam Posts: 41,031
    Possibly interesting info on MPs tweeting habits

    Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ)
    06/08/2013 13:04
    Check out this infographic about British MPs and Twitter from @NottsPolitics --> pic.twitter.com/eBQfNM261m
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012

    Sean_F said:

    My guess is that 2015 will produce a result something like Con 36%, Lab 33%, Lib Dem 17%, UKIP 7%, Others 7%. But, first time incumbency will prevent too many Conservative MPs losing seats to Labour.

    If you're about right (and it's certainly a plausible projection), that would give the LibDems an interesting dilemma.
    Baxter gives figures of 295 Labour, 290 Conservative, and 38 Lib Dem on those numbers.

    First time incumbency would probably leave the Conservatives in first place. My guess would be about 300 Conservative to 285 Labour.
  • Options
    NextNext Posts: 826
    On topic.

    Yeah but if the original Labour bounce upwards was caused by defection from Lib Dems.

    And if those Lib Dems were not voting Labour previously because there was no point in their constituency.

    Then Labour have gained voters who will not benefit them.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,453
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

    You are right. Definitely NSFW. Couldn't control myself.

  • Options
    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215

    JohnO said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 2m
    ComRes poll:Labour 37% Conservatives 34% UKIP 12%; LibDems 10%

    Is this a new poll? or one a day or two old?

    Must be new surely - I doubt Lord A would be posting about polls released several days ago. Perhaps Mike S knows for whom it was commissioned.

    Looks increasingly as if the Labour lead has fallen a further notch to 3-5 from 6-7.
    Nope it is the Comres Independent poll from July 30th .

    OK. Wonder why Lord A would draw attention to it now. Maybe he's bored.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,012
    The shine may be going off Rudd. All four of this week's polls have given the Coalition a narrow lead.

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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Well we can look at JohnO's constituency to see how this Conservative recovery is manifesting itself in an actual election .
    Weybridge South by election on July 25th
    Conservative vote 274 down from 638 in 2012
    Conservative vote share 48.6% down from 69.5% in 2012

    A stunning performance not despite a strong campaign fought by JohnO and the Conservatives .
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I remember seeing these before. Quite amusing, but werent they revealed as fakes?
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    I remember seeing these before. Quite amusing, but werent they revealed as fakes?


    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

    I don't care! A really hilarious bit of writing.
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    JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,215
    edited August 2013
    @Mark - You should know that Weybridge South is in Runnymede and Weybridge, my constituency is Esher and Walton. I assume you meant the same Borough.

    Turnout was a dismal 17% and UKIP certainly ate into our vote**...but, you know what, I don't take local by-elections all that seriously as a reflection of the national picture (though they are a factor), let alone as a predictor for the next general election.

    ** At one stage, shortly after May, I was genuinely - and posted here to that effect - concerned that we might even lose the seat as had happened a few weeks earlier in a similar by-election for Runnymede Council.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    The other unknown will be turnout. Will many of these Labour inclined voters turn out with enthusiasm for Zen EdM and the invisible man sidekick EdB?

    Everything to play for, and unwise for the LibDems to turn too anti coalition. The economic good news is in part due to the support of Danny Alexander and Nick Clegg.

    I know it gives Mike apoplexy, but in time this will be seen as quite a succesful govt, particularly when compared with our European peers.
    Next said:

    On topic.

    Yeah but if the original Labour bounce upwards was caused by defection from Lib Dems.

    And if those Lib Dems were not voting Labour previously because there was no point in their constituency.

    Then Labour have gained voters who will not benefit them.

  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

    We are killing ourselves with laughter in the office reading those reviews.

    Thanks for sharing this, much more fun than latvian homophobes repeated 57 times in the space of 24 hours.
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    carlcarl Posts: 750
    Yep, this is spot on. Labour's share is remarkably stable, even as the Tory share (and therefore the lead) bounces around mostly due to the UKIP factor.

    If it stays that way - and it certainly looks solid - then Miliband is PM.

    Odd to see PBTories launching into persnoal attacks on Mike just for pointing out a pretty obvious feature of current polling.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157
    Next said:

    On topic.

    Yeah but if the original Labour bounce upwards was caused by defection from Lib Dems.

    And if those Lib Dems were not voting Labour previously because there was no point in their constituency.

    Then Labour have gained voters who will not benefit them.

    This is partly true, but Cleggasm meant the squeeze in Lab/Con marginals wasn't as effective as it could have been, so there's quite a decent base to work from. A fair few leftish voters will have actually voted "tactically" for the LibDems in seats like that; The LibDem surge was all over the news, and this stuff is really hard for non-politics-nerd voters to get right, especially with all the parties lying to them about who's winning all the time.

    Unless the voters unexpectedly sustain multiple Cleggasms in 2010 they're not going to be making that mistake again.
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    GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I believe the classic humourous review Amazon example is

    http://www.amazon.com/AutoExec-Automobile-Steering-Attachable-Surface/dp/B004H38YZY
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

    Oh my. I've just had to leave the office to calm down. Absolutely hilarious. Sample quote: "like being given a barbed wire wedgie by two people intent on hitting the ceiling with my head"
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    philiph said:

    TGOHF said:

    Betfair Indy ref (majority)

    YES 5.4-6.8
    NO 1.17-1.21



    I still expect Yes to win.
    PILE IN THEN.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited August 2013
    My advice to PBers.

    Do not take shelter under a Labour 38% vote share.

    The building has no foundations; the walls have a structural crack; the roof is leaking; and, late summer thunderstorms are on the horizon.
  • Options
    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Anorak said:

    Blue_rog said:

    O/T as it's silly season and definitely NSFW because of the guffaws.

    http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/B000KKNQBK

    Read the one by Mr. A Chappell on 3 July 2012

    I really haven't laughed so much in years.

    Oh my. I've just had to leave the office to calm down. Absolutely hilarious. Sample quote: "like being given a barbed wire wedgie by two people intent on hitting the ceiling with my head"
    For me it's the juxtaposition of frozen sprout, chutney channel, and wife's leg!!!
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    YouGov ‏@YouGov 49s
    RT @YouGovBiz: Greggs' profits fall higlights two years of declining consumer perception of the brand - http://y-g.co/171nkPE

    Ed n Ed need to get in there...back to eating their pasties..
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380

    Financier said:

    What will happen to the BNP Vote in 2015

    In 2010, UKIP was 3.5% of England Vote and BNP 2.1%. Will it remain, go to UKIP, go to Cons?

    any reason it should go to the Cons ? I thought BNPers were more likely to be ex labour voters.

    A mixture of mostly UKIP, some abstentions and a sprinkling of Con, I'd think. Some of the BNP vote is ex-Labour, but very definitely ex in a not-if-hell-freezes-over-will-I-go-back sort of way.

    (This isn't intended as a slur on UKIP - people can't help who votes for them. I have one voter who believes that foreign languages should be illegal in Britain, even for tourists. He knows I think he's nuts. He votes for me anyway. What can I do?)

  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour have a policy shock !

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/spain/10225277/Britain-should-aim-to-share-Gibraltar-sovereignty-with-Spain.html

    "Britain should attempt to reopen negotiations with Spain aimed at sharing Gibraltar's sovereignty, according to Peter Hain"
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    NextNext Posts: 826
    NEW THREAD
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,207
    edited August 2013
    SeanF - Morgan had it tied, the interest rate cut today will also boost Labor
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    O_O PB is in a timewarp
This discussion has been closed.