politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corby
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Clegg’s YouGov ratings were substantially better than Corbyn’s now getting just before the election that saw his party almost wiped out
One of the polling elements that I’ve been highlighting in recent weeks is how leader ratings have proved to be a better pointer to electoral outcomes than voting intention polling.
Comments
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First!0
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Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
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Unusual weather in the UK, Europe, Russia, Texas, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil.
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But, as ever: Osborne's ratings are barely any better.0
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Aren't the last four all the same thing?surbiton said:Unusual weather in the UK, Europe, Russia, Texas, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil.
Guardian's take. Down to El Nino, but amplified due to global warming. Not unusual, just a bit more extreme.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change0 -
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...0 -
Unless the Tories manage to eat themselves over the EU referendum, then they could put up any Tom, Dick or Boris in 2020 and still win a majority against Corbyn. He's absolute poison to those who aren't the 20% of his fanatical support.
As someone suggested on the last thread, I wonder if Dave is having second thoughts about wanting to step down before the election, no PM has ever won three successive elections with increasing majorities.
Speaking of which, another Grandee calls for a free vote and civilised discourse for the referendum, acknowledging that there's more than a few cabinet ministers who will resign rather than be forced into collective responsibility on this one.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12070992/Give-ministers-a-free-vote-on-EU-or-risk-Tory-chaos-warns-Lord-Howard.html0 -
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...0 -
Not a good time to be MI5 or MI6. Credible terror threat to a major European city aimed at crowds either enjoying the sales or NYE celebrations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/12070827/London-terror-alert-over-New-Years-Eve-attack-fears.html
The terrorists only have to succeed once.0 -
Every August a load of British tourists turn up at Dubai's beach hotels without thinking why it it so much cheaper in the summer than the winter! Not quite as bad as Djibouti, but let's call it three showers a day weather. The temperature is usually 49 officially for a few weeks, as 50 leads to a temporary state of emergency that prevents anyone working outside. Humidity around 80%, sunglasses steam up in seconds as you walk outside and within a couple of minutes your shirt is soaking wet. Worse is that 35C is a cold night, 40 is more usual.MTimT said:
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...0 -
I thought Dubai was in the desert? I really enjoyed living in Phoenix, 40+C and very dry. Lovely!Sandpit said:
Every August a load of British tourists turn up at Dubai's beach hotels without thinking why it it so much cheaper in the summer than the winter! Not quite as bad as Djibouti, but let's call it three showers a day weather. The temperature is usually 49 officially for a few weeks, as 50 leads to a temporary state of emergency that prevents anyone working outside. Humidity around 80%, sunglasses steam up in seconds as you walk outside and within a couple of minutes your shirt is soaking wet. Worse is that 35C is a cold night, 40 is more usual.MTimT said:
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...0 -
In the desert but also on the coast. Hot and humid and generally horrible from May to September.RobD said:
I thought Dubai was in the desert? I really enjoyed living in Phoenix, 40+C and very dry. Lovely!Sandpit said:
Every August a load of British tourists turn up at Dubai's beach hotels without thinking why it it so much cheaper in the summer than the winter! Not quite as bad as Djibouti, but let's call it three showers a day weather. The temperature is usually 49 officially for a few weeks, as 50 leads to a temporary state of emergency that prevents anyone working outside. Humidity around 80%, sunglasses steam up in seconds as you walk outside and within a couple of minutes your shirt is soaking wet. Worse is that 35C is a cold night, 40 is more usual.MTimT said:
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...
Lovely today though, 21C at 9am, clear blue sky with a few fluffy cumulus, rising to about 26'in the early afternoon. Like a nice British Summer's day
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Mr Sandpit, lovely day in the environs of Bangkok, too. Just like your "nice British Summer's day".0
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There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.0 -
Dishonestly?blackburn63 said:There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.
The reason I never went into the sector is because I couldn't work out how not to be dishonest to someone - quite possibly myself. But larger outfits are no better, really. Your line manager wants you to work for him/her whilst the outfit pays you. There's a word for expecting something for nothing, especially when made (as it all too often was) with a veiled or not-so-veiled threat.
There's no such thing as an honest penny.
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Good morning, everyone.
As indicated below, this isn't great for Corbyn but what also needs considering are the figures for the new Conservative leader.0 -
The Conservative party isn't exactly stable either. The EU referendum is going to lead to a huge schism in that party also. The chances of one or both of the major two splitting in this Parliament are non-trivial. Indeed, the instability in each will feed the instability in the other, as politicians calculate they can afford to be more adventurous than usual.0
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Mr. Meeks, can be, or must be (to either win the blue leadership or sway the party, or to get rid of Corbyn).
That said, the sheep and wolves analogy has worked well so far. That bodes ill for both sides (infighting for the blues, Corbyn for the reds).0 -
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.Innocent_Abroad said:
Dishonestly?blackburn63 said:There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.
The reason I never went into the sector is because I couldn't work out how not to be dishonest to someone - quite possibly myself. But larger outfits are no better, really. Your line manager wants you to work for him/her whilst the outfit pays you. There's a word for expecting something for nothing, especially when made (as it all too often was) with a veiled or not-so-veiled threat.
There's no such thing as an honest penny.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.0 -
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.Innocent_Abroad said:
Dishonestly?blackburn63 said:There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.
The reason I never went into the sector is because I couldn't work out how not to be dishonest to someone - quite possibly myself. But larger outfits are no better, really. Your line manager wants you to work for him/her whilst the outfit pays you. There's a word for expecting something for nothing, especially when made (as it all too often was) with a veiled or not-so-veiled threat.
There's no such thing as an honest penny.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
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Of those four measures of Corbyn's poll ratings in the header, by a way his best is the satisfied/dissatisfied. Which is the one measure of the four where the Tories can say, yep, he's doing a great job - of tearing Labour apart. Keep up the good work...
I wonder if we are at a point yet where for a majority of its voters, Labour's public politics no longer match their private politics?0 -
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.Innocent_Abroad said:
Dishonestly?blackburn63 said:There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.
The reason I never went into the sector is because I couldn't work out how not to be dishonest to someone - quite possibly myself. But larger outfits are no better, really. Your line manager wants you to work for him/her whilst the outfit pays you. There's a word for expecting something for nothing, especially when made (as it all too often was) with a veiled or not-so-veiled threat.
There's no such thing as an honest penny.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.0 -
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.Innocent_Abroad said:
Dishonestly?blackburn63 said:There's plenty of opportunity to get stuck into the govt right now, shame Labour is so ineffective, I really have no idea what they're up to. Last week some of us pointed out the stupidity and danger of Osborne introducing quarterly tax returns, now the Telegraph has caught up on it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/yourbusiness/12068240/Small-business-owners-better-off-on-the-dole-if-proposed-tax-return-changes-go-through.html
If Corbyn had anything about him he'd get plenty of support here, but like the vast majority of politicians he has no idea how small businesses operate.
The reason I never went into the sector is because I couldn't work out how not to be dishonest to someone - quite possibly myself. But larger outfits are no better, really. Your line manager wants you to work for him/her whilst the outfit pays you. There's a word for expecting something for nothing, especially when made (as it all too often was) with a veiled or not-so-veiled threat.
There's no such thing as an honest penny.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
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All right for some, hissing down here at the moment, has been all week, monsoon season (one of several!).OldKingCole said:Mr Sandpit, lovely day in the environs of Bangkok, too. Just like your "nice British Summer's day".
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They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.0 -
Gates is definitely extraordinary, even though I despise his company, he is off the scale clever, with a eidetic memory and an superlative talent for business, not a common combination at all.Innocent_Abroad said:
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
There was a photo of Gates and Gerstner (then Chairman of IBM) on the back of Computing magazine years ago, the caption read "One of these man knows how to format a disk, the other wrote the format command" 0 -
As an aside, it should be remembered how close Apple came to failure (and how they were saved by ARM). Also, that Jobs set up two companies after he was chucked out of Apple: Pixar and NeXT. The former was a success (although he actually bought it from LucasFilm), the latter a glorious flop.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2491263,00.asp0 -
To be fair, NeXT OS is the basis for the current MacOS, and several of it's pioneering apps are still part of the Apple ecosystem, notable the app store (invented by Jobs at NeXT) and WebObjects. NextOS became Rhapsody became MacOS Server.JosiasJessop said:As an aside, it should be remembered how close Apple came to failure (and how they were saved by ARM). Also, that Jobs set up two companies after he was chucked out of Apple: Pixar and NeXT. The former was a success (although he actually bought it from LucasFilm), the latter a glorious flop.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2491263,00.asp0 -
More than anything else, Gates was lucky. He positioned himself well and grasped opportunities that came his way, but the dice could easily have rolled the other way. He'd still have been a success, but nowhere near what he's become.Indigo said:
Gates is definitely extraordinary, even though I despise his company, he is off the scale clever, with a eidetic memory and an superlative talent for business, not a common combination at all.Innocent_Abroad said:
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
There was a photo of Gates and Gerstner (then Chairman of IBM) on the back of Computing magazine years ago, the caption read "One of these man knows how to format a disk, the other wrote the format command"
Perhaps his biggest decision was to screw IBM over OS/2, turning MS's DOS dominance into the Windows hegemony.
I don't dislike Gates (or Microsoft) at all. I cannot say the same for Jobs and Apple, although I *really* like Woz.0 -
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.0 -
Indeed. But if Jobs had not gone back to Apple, NeXT would have disappeared. The company itself failed, even if the tech lived on due to its buy-out.Indigo said:
To be fair, NeXT OS is the basis for the current MacOS, and several of it's pioneering apps are still part of the Apple ecosystem, notable the app store (invented by Jobs at NeXT) and WebObjects. NextOS became Rhapsody became MacOS Server.JosiasJessop said:As an aside, it should be remembered how close Apple came to failure (and how they were saved by ARM). Also, that Jobs set up two companies after he was chucked out of Apple: Pixar and NeXT. The former was a success (although he actually bought it from LucasFilm), the latter a glorious flop.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2491263,00.asp0 -
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
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Gates was lucky that Gary Kildall thought flying his plane was more important than negotiating with IBM about CP/M, since CP/M was vastly superior to DOS, and was IBM's first choice.JosiasJessop said:
More than anything else, Gates was lucky. He positioned himself well and grasped opportunities that came his way, but the dice could easily have rolled the other way. He'd still have been a success, but nowhere near what he's become.Indigo said:
Gates is definitely extraordinary, even though I despise his company, he is off the scale clever, with a eidetic memory and an superlative talent for business, not a common combination at all.Innocent_Abroad said:
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
There was a photo of Gates and Gerstner (then Chairman of IBM) on the back of Computing magazine years ago, the caption read "One of these man knows how to format a disk, the other wrote the format command"
Perhaps his biggest decision was to screw IBM over OS/2, turning MS's DOS dominance into the Windows hegemony.
I don't dislike Gates (or Microsoft) at all. I cannot say the same for Jobs and Apple, although I *really* like Woz.
I was working for IBM at during the rise and fall of OS/2, I regret to say it was one of several ways my former employer was failing to wake up an smell the coffee at the time.0 -
No. You can position yourself in such a way that you can make the most of opportunities that come your way. But you still need luck for those opportunities to come along for you, and not your competitors.Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
The skill is in the positioning.0 -
How marvellously UnPC. Someone will no doubt be along shortly demanding they're banned too. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35100612
It is thought that in 1864 he was asked to make a mould for jelly bears, but the resulting sweets looked more like newborn infants and were subsequently given the ghoulish name, Unclaimed Babies.
The book's author A History Of Temptation, said although the name might sound ghastly to modern ears, sweet-eaters in the Victorian era would barely have batted an eyelid.
"Unclaimed babies were a part of life back then - people would leave them on church steps and it's possible that people even found the name amusing," he said. "The sweets were sold loose and the jars they were in wouldn't have been labelled [or] branded, so people would have said, 'Can I have some of those jellied babies?'.0 -
Did it say which was which? Gates bought MS-DOS from a third party after he'd already sold it to IBM. He did not write it himself.Indigo said:
Gates is definitely extraordinary, even though I despise his company, he is off the scale clever, with a eidetic memory and an superlative talent for business, not a common combination at all.Innocent_Abroad said:
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
There was a photo of Gates and Gerstner (then Chairman of IBM) on the back of Computing magazine years ago, the caption read "One of these man knows how to format a disk, the other wrote the format command"
Gates was a very successful and ruthless businessman, and while his current philanthropy is admirable and extraordinary in its scale, it is perhaps also fire insurance in case St Peter takes a dim view of his early business practices.
Maybe the true story of the computing business is IBM giving stuff away: it allowed not only Microsoft's rise but also Oracle's, for relational databases and SQL came from IBM labs.
Well, IBM and successive British governments, since our desire to play at spies led us to throw away our lead in computers and later in cryptography. Ironically, our spooks were mainly working for Moscow anyway.0 -
My dad when I was young. I think it was Gary Player who said the harder I practice the luckier I get too. It's too easy to ascribe someone else's skill or hard work to luck.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.0 -
Quite agree.Philip_Thompson said:
My dad when I was young. I think it was Gary Player who said the harder I practice the luckier I get too. It's too easy to ascribe someone else's skill or hard work to luck.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.0 -
Certainly if you wait for opportunities to "come along to you" then you'll need more "luck" than if you work hard trying to create and find opportunities .JosiasJessop said:
No. You can position yourself in such a way that you can make the most of opportunities that come your way. But you still need luck for those opportunities to come along for you, and not your competitors.Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
The skill is in the positioning.0 -
It's called El Nino.surbiton said:Unusual weather in the UK, Europe, Russia, Texas, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, Brazil.
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Corbyn on 20% would still have 150ish seats and be LOTO, with more seats than all the other opposition MPs put together.
He has to drop into the low teens to get wipeout. Unlikely at present, but not impossible if we look at SLAB. There would have to be some sort of breakaway Centrist/soft Left party to do this, hard to see Farron doing it by 2020.0 -
Interesting article...
The question for Mike, is why did the LDs stay with Nick Clegg and how can Labour avoid that fate.
By the end the LDs seemed a bit cultish.0 -
Spent a year working in the Empty Quarter back in the late 80s. But we were working in what is known as Sabkha which is basically low lying salt desert which floods periodically. Temperatures into the mid 50s celsius and thick fog. It was like living permanently in a steam room.MTimT said:
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.Charles said:
The coldest business trip I've ever made was to Minneapolis-St Paul in the middle of December. And I'd manage to leave my greatcoat in a cupboard in Paris.Tim_B said:Hey - it's fahrenheit time again!
The temperature at the start of tonight's Sunday Night Football game (Giants at Vikings) played outdoors in Minneapolis Minnesota is 14 degrees (32 is freezing). It's expected to drop during the game.
In Celcius I believe it's referred to as Brass Monkey weather.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...0 -
Rallings and Thrasher predicting Labour could lose 6 councils. Crawley, Exeter and Southampton mentioned. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4650739.ecefoxinsoxuk said:
Corbyn on 20% would still have 150ish seats and be LOTO, with more seats than all the other opposition MPs put together.
He has to drop into the low teens to get wipeout. Unlikely at present, but not impossible if we look at SLAB. There would have to be some sort of breakaway Centrist/soft Left party to do this, hard to see Farron doing it by 2020.0 -
But that's not what I'm saying. The 'positioning' is the last clause of your sentence: the working hard so you can take advantage of opportunities.Philip_Thompson said:
Certainly if you wait for opportunities to "come along to you" then you'll need more "luck" than if you work hard trying to create and find opportunities .JosiasJessop said:
No. You can position yourself in such a way that you can make the most of opportunities that come your way. But you still need luck for those opportunities to come along for you, and not your competitors.Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
The skill is in the positioning.
Take politics. *Anyone* who has been PM has had luck to get into that position, if only in timing. For instance, if Smith had not died then Blair might never have become PM: the opportunity would have passed. But he had developed skills and networked so that when the opportunity came, he was in prime position.
He didn't make the luck (unless you think he killed Smith).0 -
I was told Ben Hogan, but similar sort of thing!Philip_Thompson said:
My dad when I was young. I think it was Gary Player who said the harder I practice the luckier I get too. It's too easy to ascribe someone else's skill or hard work to luck.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
Talking of luck, if after all that is going on - reshuffle to get rid of the few shadow ministers who still have a pair of brain cells to bang together, worse personal ratings than Nick Clegg, the abolition of Christmas but not of Eid, and a continuing inability to reign in his more vicious attack dogs putting a kinder gentler politics into action by mocking, bullying and even threatening to rape people - Corbyn is not removed, it is the national duty of the Conservatives to find a way to bottle their luck and sell it.
Even allowing for all that, please tell me (from a couple of days ago) that it is a joke that Diane Abbott is being considered as Shadow Foreign Secretary.0 -
I first started using Apple Macs in 1994, just at the time when a lot of people were saying they were going to go bankrupt at any moment. That was the situation until 1998 when the iMac was released.JosiasJessop said:As an aside, it should be remembered how close Apple came to failure (and how they were saved by ARM). Also, that Jobs set up two companies after he was chucked out of Apple: Pixar and NeXT. The former was a success (although he actually bought it from LucasFilm), the latter a glorious flop.
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2491263,00.asp0 -
Nonsense. I started a one man business in 2003 with an investment of £3k, working from a back bedroom. We now have 3 offices and employ 35 people with a turnover of £1.5m and are growing rapidly. This year we will take on five graduates.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Procedures are there and have to be complied with but it's just a matter of buying in the right expertise when you need it. Plenty of people out there who can provide the support you need.0 -
Plainly you've never heard of freelancers.JosiasJessop said:.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.0 -
Mr Tyndall,
I remember El Nino being mentioned by some meteorologist last year, who predicted a "warming" for this year and possibly next. I'll admit, I assumed that the AGW people would seize on it and ignore the current. So I was pleasantly surprised to see some balance at last.
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Plainly, I have.Bromptonaut said:
Plainly you've never heard of freelancers.JosiasJessop said:.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Note I was talking about companies that employ others.0 -
Are you saying that you obeyed the laws 100% correctly 100% of the time? If so, well done, and congratulations.Bromptonaut said:
Nonsense. I started a one man business in 2003 with an investment of £3k, working from a back bedroom. We now have 3 offices and employ 35 people with a turnover of £1.5m and are growing rapidly. This year we will take on five graduates.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Procedures are there and have to be complied with but it's just a matter of buying in the right expertise when you need it. Plenty of people out there who can provide the support you need.
(My dad was also working in the building / demolition sectors, where there are perhaps more regulations than in many sectors).0 -
My husband set up a small business with 3 work colleagues - that fell apart within 3yrs after bickering, and he went on alone - he's now running a business with 50 staff. We started that in 2000. Hardwork, his personal warmth, ingenuity and a willingness to take a calculated risks were the difference between V1 and V2.
V1 had too much nerdy arrogance and personal rivalry. Both versions started life in our spare room.Bromptonaut said:
Nonsense. I started a one man business in 2003 with an investment of £3k, working from a back bedroom. We now have 3 offices and employ 35 people with a turnover of £1.5m and are growing rapidly. This year we will take on five graduates.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Procedures are there and have to be complied with but it's just a matter of buying in the right expertise when you need it. Plenty of people out there who can provide the support you need.0 -
A common name in Naples is Gennaro Esposito.Plato_Says said:How marvellously UnPC. Someone will no doubt be along shortly demanding they're banned too. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35100612
It is thought that in 1864 he was asked to make a mould for jelly bears, but the resulting sweets looked more like newborn infants and were subsequently given the ghoulish name, Unclaimed Babies.
The book's author A History Of Temptation, said although the name might sound ghastly to modern ears, sweet-eaters in the Victorian era would barely have batted an eyelid.
"Unclaimed babies were a part of life back then - people would leave them on church steps and it's possible that people even found the name amusing," he said. "The sweets were sold loose and the jars they were in wouldn't have been labelled [or] branded, so people would have said, 'Can I have some of those jellied babies?'.
Gennaro is after the patron saint of Naples, St Januarius. A phial of his blood is kept in the Cathedral and is said to liquefy twice a year. If it doesn't, bad luck will be suffered by Naples. In 1944 it did not liquefy and Vesuvius erupted. For those who are interested, you can see a film of the lava slowly descending down the path into a village and stopping just short of the villagers headed by their priest holding up a crucifix. Still, it would not have needed a miracle to foresee the bad luck which faced Neapolitans in 1944.
And "Esposito" means "exposed" for the illegitimate babies left outside, often outside convents.
For anyone interested, "Naples '44" by Norman Lewis, about his time in Naples in this period as an intelligence officer, is one of the best war books there is. Highly recommended.
@Charles: I built a lot of additional shelves for my books a few years ago and have still run out of space. A call to the builders in 2016 is called for.
A glorious day in London today: yesterday I planted my Bengal Crimson rose (a Xmas present) and today a trip to the garden centre is on the cards before work calls tomorrow. Nothing more glorious than getting one's hands dirty and being in the fresh air on a day such as this.
BTW re slavery, I think it was France - under the Revolution - which first abolished slavery in its West Indian domains. Napoleon reintroduced it.
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Nice and fresh in Scotland, if a bit grey but at least is is dry.Indigo said:
All right for some, hissing down here at the moment, has been all week, monsoon season (one of several!).OldKingCole said:Mr Sandpit, lovely day in the environs of Bangkok, too. Just like your "nice British Summer's day".
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Like ours, with a workforce of 35 and which uses freelance advisers for HR, H&S and financials.JosiasJessop said:
Note I was talking about companies that employ others.0 -
You mean to tell me Labour's sole parliamentary bastion In The SW outside Bristol is not one of those areas enthused by Corbyn? Colour me shocked. I've always found even done labour down here a little blue.Plato_Says said:Rallings and Thrasher predicting Labour could lose 6 councils. Crawley, Exeter and Southampton mentioned. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4650739.ece
foxinsoxuk said:Corbyn on 20% would still have 150ish seats and be LOTO, with more seats than all the other opposition MPs put together.
He has to drop into the low teens to get wipeout. Unlikely at present, but not impossible if we look at SLAB. There would have to be some sort of breakaway Centrist/soft Left party to do this, hard to see Farron doing it by 2020.
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To the absolute best of my knowledge, yes. Had our first VAT audit this year with no problems.JosiasJessop said:
Are you saying that you obeyed the laws 100% correctly 100% of the time? If so, well done, and congratulations.
(My dad was also working in the building / demolition sectors, where there are perhaps more regulations than in many sectors).0 -
Indeed, and congratulations. But that's different from 'freelancers' which you remarkably think I've never heard of.Bromptonaut said:
Like ours, with a workforce of 35 and which uses freelance advisers for HR, H&S and financials.JosiasJessop said:
Note I was talking about companies that employ others.
Again: are you sure you've followed all regulations all of the time? As a matter of interest, what sector are you in?0 -
I'll take your politics example and say you are still wrong, he definitely did make his own luck.JosiasJessop said:But that's not what I'm saying. The 'positioning' is the last clause of your sentence: the working hard so you can take advantage of opportunities.
Take politics. *Anyone* who has been PM has had luck to get into that position, if only in timing. For instance, if Smith had not died then Blair might never have become PM: the opportunity would have passed. But he had developed skills and networked so that when the opportunity came, he was in prime position.
He didn't make the luck (unless you think he killed Smith).
People don't just enter politics to become PM (though there will always be one) and before Smith's death Blair had already climbed the ranks to become not just a Shadow Cabinet Minister, but as Shadow Home Secretary was for his party holding one of the shadow Great Offices of State. While Smith was still alive.
Blair had already achieved more than most politicians do and the odds were very high that Blair would become at least a Cabinet Minister if not PM one day. Why would you ignore all that completely and only take being PM as a success?0 -
Technical consultancy working mainly for the property sector. Although I don't see that as relevant. To read some comments on here it would seem impossible to put pen to paper, finger to keyboard or die to widget without contravening some UK or EU diktat.JosiasJessop said:
Again: are you sure you've followed all regulations all of the time? As a matter of interest, what sector are you in?
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There are many components to success in whichever field you choose, I'm not a great believer in luck but circumstances play a very big part.0
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You don't need to hire an HR expert in order to obey the law, you need to use common sense.JosiasJessop said:
Plainly, I have.Bromptonaut said:
Plainly you've never heard of freelancers.JosiasJessop said:.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Note I was talking about companies that employ others.
For not very much per annum you can pay a subscription to a HR law firm in order to get telephone support so that if you have an HR issue (or need training) it is available on demand. Without having an in-house expert. Many of these companies will provide indemnified advice or other expertise too and come a lot cheaper than hiring an in-house expert. Membership of your local Chamber of Commerce provides this for example.0 -
I ran several businesses. We employed third parties who supplied the relevant expertise. In HR we has a set of procedures for specific cases: eg redundancy, warnings etc. We used to run our more difficult cases through an expert..JosiasJessop said:
Are you saying that you obeyed the laws 100% correctly 100% of the time? If so, well done, and congratulations.Bromptonaut said:
Nonsense. I started a one man business in 2003 with an investment of £3k, working from a back bedroom. We now have 3 offices and employ 35 people with a turnover of £1.5m and are growing rapidly. This year we will take on five graduates.JosiasJessop said:
My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
Procedures are there and have to be complied with but it's just a matter of buying in the right expertise when you need it. Plenty of people out there who can provide the support you need.
(My dad was also working in the building / demolition sectors, where there are perhaps more regulations than in many sectors).
IF you go down that route, it's easily do-able.0 -
I think Earl Grey 'won' three elections, increasing his majority a each, though his 'win' in 1830 has to be defined in terms of forming a government as by any other measure, the Tories under Wellington won - but numerical measures are trumped by the political result. Besides, Cameron's position after his first election is not wholly dissimilar. Pitt the Younger might be another example though I haven't got detailed figures for 1790 to hand.Sandpit said:Unless the Tories manage to eat themselves over the EU referendum, then they could put up any Tom, Dick or Boris in 2020 and still win a majority against Corbyn. He's absolute poison to those who aren't the 20% of his fanatical support.
As someone suggested on the last thread, I wonder if Dave is having second thoughts about wanting to step down before the election, no PM has ever won three successive elections with increasing majorities.
Speaking of which, another Grandee calls for a free vote and civilised discourse for the referendum, acknowledging that there's more than a few cabinet ministers who will resign rather than be forced into collective responsibility on this one.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/12070992/Give-ministers-a-free-vote-on-EU-or-risk-Tory-chaos-warns-Lord-Howard.html0 -
That's not what I'm saying, and I wasn't trying to make a political point out of it. Although I'd argue that a 'technical consultancy' is very different from a company that actually does something.Bromptonaut said:
Technical consultancy working mainly for the property sector. Although I don't see that as relevant. To read some comments on here it would seem impossible to put pen to paper, finger to keyboard or die to widget without contravening some UK or EU diktat.JosiasJessop said:
Again: are you sure you've followed all regulations all of the time? As a matter of interest, what sector are you in?
(Runs away)0 -
Golly, haven't seen a black and white set in two or three decades. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/black-white-tv-still-watched-7077902
More than 9,000 people in the UK still watch black and white TV – nearly 50 years after the first colour broadcast.
Half a century after David Attenborough raced to broadcast colour TV in the UK ahead of German TV bosses, thousands of people still live in the technological dark ages.0 -
The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.0
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IBM did not understand their product and the changing market. They threw away the'PC' branding for instance and indeed thought the original PC just a toy.DecrepitJohnL said:
Did it say which was which? Gates bought MS-DOS from a third party after he'd already sold it to IBM. He did not write it himself.Indigo said:
Gates is definitely extraordinary, even though I despise his company, he is off the scale clever, with a eidetic memory and an superlative talent for business, not a common combination at all.Innocent_Abroad said:
If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinaryJosiasJessop said:
That's one of my issues with Apple: they're a diseased wart on the tech sector.Innocent_Abroad said:
Why wouldn't large firms use their influence with the State apparatus to squeeze out newcomers? Entrepreneurs have never been "ordinary" people - I think that's a given.JosiasJessop said:My dad was a small businessman before he retired before the Millennium. Towards the end he contended that it was next-to impossible for an ordinary person to start a small business and run it within the law because the burden of legislation was so great, especially when employing other people.
This was backed up by an entrepreneur I know, whose first action when setting up a new tech business was to head-hunt a lady who really knew HR regulations well, and a bloke who was a whizz at financials.
Most small companies cannot afford such largesse, and have to try to muddle through the regulations as best they can.
But it's not just large firms. When the state's a competitor then they use their apparatus to squeeze out newcomers.
And I'd say entrepreneurs are ordinary people: they're just a subset of ordinary people.
There was a photo of Gates and Gerstner (then Chairman of IBM) on the back of Computing magazine years ago, the caption read "One of these man knows how to format a disk, the other wrote the format command"
Gates was a very successful and ruthless businessman, and while his current philanthropy is admirable and extraordinary in its scale, it is perhaps also fire insurance in case St Peter takes a dim view of his early business practices.
Maybe the true story of the computing business is IBM giving stuff away: it allowed not only Microsoft's rise but also Oracle's, for relational databases and SQL came from IBM labs.
Well, IBM and successive British governments, since our desire to play at spies led us to throw away our lead in computers and later in cryptography. Ironically, our spooks were mainly working for Moscow anyway.0 -
Even when you are employed, it is worth thinking about yourself and your role in an entrepreneurial way. When I joined my current employer, the role I had did not exist so I had to create it, sell the idea internally, make it work, show its value, argue the case for more staff and then persuade people to join my team and stay.
Now I have a team of 5. I have often thought that we would do better, financially, setting up independently and selling our services. Possibly an idea for the coming year.
Anyway, the point being that the entrepreneurial mindset - finding a gap in the market and selling yourself as the answer to it - is one that all workers, whether employees, freelancers or those running companies - should try and adopt.0 -
The terrorists have already succeeded once. They need a lot more if their campaign is to win.Sandpit said:Not a good time to be MI5 or MI6. Credible terror threat to a major European city aimed at crowds either enjoying the sales or NYE celebrations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/12070827/London-terror-alert-over-New-Years-Eve-attack-fears.html
The terrorists only have to succeed once.0 -
The Labour Party was being squeezed by on one side a financial crisis and excessive welfare spending (of their own making) and on the other by a Tory Party rather more central ground than many thought - especially on social issues.ydoethur said:
I was told Ben Hogan, but similar sort of thing!Philip_Thompson said:
My dad when I was young. I think it was Gary Player who said the harder I practice the luckier I get too. It's too easy to ascribe someone else's skill or hard work to luck.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
Talking of luck, if after all that is going on - reshuffle to get rid of the few shadow ministers who still have a pair of brain cells to bang together, worse personal ratings than Nick Clegg, the abolition of Christmas but not of Eid, and a continuing inability to reign in his more vicious attack dogs putting a kinder gentler politics into action by mocking, bullying and even threatening to rape people - Corbyn is not removed, it is the national duty of the Conservatives to find a way to bottle their luck and sell it.
Even allowing for all that, please tell me (from a couple of days ago) that it is a joke that Diane Abbott is being considered as Shadow Foreign Secretary.
Squeeze hard and like soap they popped into the and and went Left . You could argue it's Tory luck - but it was also a situation created by Tory policy.. so to some extent self made luck..
(Whether by accident or design is debatable of course)..
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I can recommend southern India at this time of year. Dubai was damp and overcast when we flew through.Sandpit said:
In the desert but also on the coast. Hot and humid and generally horrible from May to September.RobD said:
I thought Dubai was in the desert? I really enjoyed living in Phoenix, 40+C and very dry. Lovely!Sandpit said:
Every August a load of British tourists turn up at Dubai's beach hotels without thinking why it it so much cheaper in the summer than the winter! Not quite as bad as Djibouti, but let's call it three showers a day weather. The temperature is usually 49 officially for a few weeks, as 50 leads to a temporary state of emergency that prevents anyone working outside. Humidity around 80%, sunglasses steam up in seconds as you walk outside and within a couple of minutes your shirt is soaking wet. Worse is that 35C is a cold night, 40 is more usual.MTimT said:
Can't really compete on the low end of the temperature spectrum. But on the high end ... Djibouti, 56 celsius, near 100% humidity. Definitely four-showers-a-day weather. Or the Empty Quarter, 55 Celsius, below 10% humidity so no visible sweating, just your arms going white with residue salt. Then 0 Celsius that night.Charles said:
Hah! I spend a lot of time with qualified DVMs and the stories that the Canadian field vets tell are the worst.Tim_B said:
Many years ago I used to live north of Toronto. It was a great place to live - and a great city - except for the climate.
December temperatures got well below -18 celsius, particularly with a wind. It is so cold that metal doesn't feel cold, and if you try to open a car door without gloves, it takes the skin off your fingers.
One Christmas Eve, it was so cold the power cables became brittle and broke in the wind. Midnight Mass at the local catholic church was imprisoned as they lost power and the church doors were frozen shut.
I just assumed it was God's way of saying that being Anglican was the way to go
Like the time that the head of R&D at a big global company told me about the time he was suffering frostbitten fingers in a storm in Northern Ontario. So he stripped off the sleeves from his overcoat (Canadian jackets are made with shoulder zips) and plunged both arms past the elbow into a cow's rear end...
Or the time when another explained to me (over supper!) the consequences of standing directly behind a cow with a cough...
Lovely today though, 21C at 9am, clear blue sky with a few fluffy cumulus, rising to about 26'in the early afternoon. Like a nice British Summer's day0 -
Absolutely correct, I've been self employed and running a small business most of my life.Cyclefree said:Even when you are employed, it is worth thinking about yourself and your role in an entrepreneurial way. When I joined my current employer, the role I had did not exist so I had to create it, sell the idea internally, make it work, show its value, argue the case for more staff and then persuade people to join my team and stay.
Now I have a team of 5. I have often thought that we would do better, financially, setting up independently and selling our services. Possibly an idea for the coming year.
Anyway, the point being that the entrepreneurial mindset - finding a gap in the market and selling yourself as the answer to it - is one that all workers, whether employees, freelancers or those running companies - should try and adopt.
But the issue of the 4 times a year tax return is that it creates extra work and cost to both small businesses and HMRC with no benefits, it is bad legislation and a hindrance to productivity.
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I don't think, on the evidence we've seen (polling, local by-elections, Oldham) that Labour is facing an LD-esque wipeout, so one answer to your question could be "nothing". Ie, Labour will lose in 2020, sure, but it won't be vaporised.Jonathan said:Interesting article...
The question for Mike, is why did the LDs stay with Nick Clegg and how can Labour avoid that fate.
By the end the LDs seemed a bit cultish.
That said, I think one should consider that Corbyn is uncharted territory. No mainstream party has ever had so unmainstream a leader. Perhaps he can confound the polls and achieve total annihilation of his party.
What to do? Replace him. OK, can't do that. Drink then.0 -
For HMRC if it's all automated then it should be less work not more.blackburn63 said:The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.
For businesses it's a quarter of the work done four times as often, not much extra time and good practice to know sooner than later your results anyway.0 -
To think that the Corbynistas are in denial is to misunderstand the hard left. They are not - and never have been - primarily interested in conventional electoral success; rather they want to secure party control and to use the party as a platform to articulate their politics. There will be no compromise with the voters.0
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No, I don't only take PM as being a success. But ignoring the luck of Smith's death in Blair becoming PM seems odd. And there would have been similar 'luck' in Blair climbing the greasy pole and becoming a Shadow Home Secretary.Philip_Thompson said:
I'll take your politics example and say you are still wrong, he definitely did make his own luck.JosiasJessop said:But that's not what I'm saying. The 'positioning' is the last clause of your sentence: the working hard so you can take advantage of opportunities.
Take politics. *Anyone* who has been PM has had luck to get into that position, if only in timing. For instance, if Smith had not died then Blair might never have become PM: the opportunity would have passed. But he had developed skills and networked so that when the opportunity came, he was in prime position.
He didn't make the luck (unless you think he killed Smith).
People don't just enter politics to become PM (though there will always be one) and before Smith's death Blair had already climbed the ranks to become not just a Shadow Cabinet Minister, but as Shadow Home Secretary was for his party holding one of the shadow Great Offices of State. While Smith was still alive.
Blair had already achieved more than most politicians do and the odds were very high that Blair would become at least a Cabinet Minister if not PM one day. Why would you ignore all that completely and only take being PM as a success?
My argument is that the key thing is developing the skills and contacts to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise (and as many different opportunities as possible). You do not necessarily make those opportunities. But the more skills and contacts you have, the more opportunities you can grasp when they appear.
As an example, if Gary Kildall has not been out when IBM had visited (*), would Microsoft have become the dominant company it did? Yet he was, and Microsoft seized that piece of luck and licensed QDOS to meet IBM's requirements.
(*) There is some argument about exactly what happened: it is clear that Digital Research were unwilling to take IBM's terms.0 -
Beautiful weather down on the Isle of Wight. 13C already, albeit a little windy. Not rained for days either.malcolmg said:
Nice and fresh in Scotland, if a bit grey but at least is is dry.Indigo said:
All right for some, hissing down here at the moment, has been all week, monsoon season (one of several!).OldKingCole said:Mr Sandpit, lovely day in the environs of Bangkok, too. Just like your "nice British Summer's day".
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I'm sorry but that's nonsense, there is absolutely no way that doing the same thing 4 times a year rather than 1 amounts to less work.Philip_Thompson said:
For HMRC if it's all automated then it should be less work not more.blackburn63 said:The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.
For businesses it's a quarter of the work done four times as often, not much extra time and good practice to know sooner than later your results anyway.
What price will you give me this legislation never goes through? Osbirne's advisors will read the press and u-turn, no two ways about it.
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It's the essence of this site. You can't pick winners all the time but with the right skills, knowledge and application you can pick them far more often than the average.Innocent_Abroad said:
Who told you that?Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.0 -
Rather like the changes to dividend taxation, this is part of the drive to make it more difficult for small traders to operate as companies. My colleagues in private medical practice are getting cold feet about being incorporated for example. I am not sure whether this is a good thing or not, but it does seem to be policy.Philip_Thompson said:
For HMRC if it's all automated then it should be less work not more.blackburn63 said:The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.
For businesses it's a quarter of the work done four times as often, not much extra time and good practice to know sooner than later your results anyway.0 -
And why should there be, Corbyn was elected by a landslide, he has a mandate to do as he wishes. Regardless of who leads labour they're in a terrible mess.PeterC said:To think that the Corbynistas are in denial is to misunderstand the hard left. They are not - and never have been - primarily interested in conventional electoral success; rather they want to secure party control and to use the party as a platform to articulate their politics. There will be no compromise with the voters.
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The sad death of Don Estridge changed the PC industry forever. He was the father of the PC, and IBM simply could not take advantage without him. Their entire corporate attitude worked against it, as can be seen from the PC Junior debacle (though that happened whilst he was still alive, if sidelined).flightpath01 said:IBM did not understand their product and the changing market. They threw away the'PC' branding for instance and indeed thought the original PC just a toy.
I'm really keen on tech companies having small Skunkworks groups to develop new products and markets, and of management willing to run with what they develop.0 -
If this goes through it will be interesting to see the impact on self employment where often running a very marginal business is sufficient to qualify for tax credits. It will also be interesting to see the impact on some EU migration where some nationalities choose to become self employed collecting scrap metal or selling the Big Issue magazine which qualifies the individual for tax credits.blackburn63 said:
I'm sorry but that's nonsense, there is absolutely no way that doing the same thing 4 times a year rather than 1 amounts to less work.Philip_Thompson said:
For HMRC if it's all automated then it should be less work not more.blackburn63 said:The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.
For businesses it's a quarter of the work done four times as often, not much extra time and good practice to know sooner than later your results anyway.
What price will you give me this legislation never goes through? Osbirne's advisors will read the press and u-turn, no two ways about it.
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Interesting that Trevor Kavanagh is calling the referendum for leave.
He claims to have called the tory majority and the collapse in oil prices this time last year.0 -
Blair might well have succeded Smith anyway as the age gap would still have been right. Alternatively, as you say, he could have been an addition to the long list of former future PMs. Certainly, Labour's priorities at the leadership election would have beendifferent had Smith already led Labour back to office.JosiasJessop said:
But that's not what I'm saying. The 'positioning' is the last clause of your sentence: the working hard so you can take advantage of opportunities.Philip_Thompson said:
Certainly if you wait for opportunities to "come along to you" then you'll need more "luck" than if you work hard trying to create and find opportunities .JosiasJessop said:
No. You can position yourself in such a way that you can make the most of opportunities that come your way. But you still need luck for those opportunities to come along for you, and not your competitors.Philip_Thompson said:
You make your own luck ...JosiasJessop said:
They were ordinary and lucky, as are most entrepreneurs. Don't fall for the mythology.Innocent_Abroad said:If you think Jobs and Wozniak are ordinary, I'd like to know who you think is extraordinary
IME where entrepreneurs differ from the 'average' member of the public is in their capabilities to work hard, take managed risks and focus. Many people (the majority?) do the former; the luck comes in with the second, and the third is perhaps the hardest to achieve.
Most of us have skills that are not common amongst other members of the general public. That does not make us any less ordinary.
The skill is in the positioning.
Take politics. *Anyone* who has been PM has had luck to get into that position, if only in timing. For instance, if Smith had not died then Blair might never have become PM: the opportunity would have passed. But he had developed skills and networked so that when the opportunity came, he was in prime position.
He didn't make the luck (unless you think he killed Smith).0 -
And yet black and white photos can be some of the most evocative and beautiful photographs around.Plato_Says said:Golly, haven't seen a black and white set in two or three decades. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/black-white-tv-still-watched-7077902
More than 9,000 people in the UK still watch black and white TV – nearly 50 years after the first colour broadcast.
Half a century after David Attenborough raced to broadcast colour TV in the UK ahead of German TV bosses, thousands of people still live in the technological dark ages.
Wasn't it Chris Mullins MP who only claimed expenses for a black and white TV set?0 -
Yes I saw that, more interesting to me is the best selling newspaper will be recommending Out.taffys said:Interesting that Trevor Kavanagh is calling the referendum for leave.
He claims to have called the tory majority and the collapse in oil prices this time last year.
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OT.. but finally booked my IMAX tickets for Star Wars. Can I make it five more days without it being spoiled I wonder?
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Sorry but that is rubbish. When they moved to monthly PAYE notifications it was a load more work and certainly a lot more cost. Exactly the same will happen this time. Accountants will love it but everyone else will end up worse off.Philip_Thompson said:
For HMRC if it's all automated then it should be less work not more.blackburn63 said:The main point about the 4 times a year return issue is the extra burden of time put on both businesses and HMRC.
For businesses it's a quarter of the work done four times as often, not much extra time and good practice to know sooner than later your results anyway.0 -
Amongst the public as a whole Clegg nay have a higher rating but amongst 2015 Labour voters Corbyn's rating us likely higher than Clegg'a was with 2010 LDs. The LDs problem was that they lost centre left LD voters en masse to Labour while moderate Tory voters, some of whom perhaps voted for Blair, stuck with Cameron so their base collapsed, Corbyn may not be attracting any moderate Tories either but he is holding most of the left-wing Labour base. A Tory majority at the moment looks likely but a change if Labour leader and a possible rise in the UKIP vote post EU ref could maybe lead to a hung parliament0
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CORBYNISM SWEEPING THE NATION....0
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Corbania!FrancisUrquhart said:CORBYNISM SWEEPING THE NATION....
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The only hope Labour has is that a 1% swing away from the Tories produces a hung parliament. Not impossible considering many possibilities including the economy.HYUFD said:Amongst the public as a whole Clegg nay have a higher rating but amongst 2015 Labour voters Corbyn's rating us likely higher than Clegg'a was with 2010 LDs. The LDs problem was that they lost centre left LD voters en masse to Labour while moderate Tory voters, some of whom perhaps voted for Blair, stuck with Cameron so their base collapsed, Corbyn may not be attracting any moderate Tories either but he is holding most of the left-wing Labour base. A Tory majority at the moment looks likely but a change if Labour leader and a possible rise in the UKIP vote post EU ref could maybe lead to a hung parliament
The usual stuff dished out that the DUP will support the Tories needs to be proven. UU will, of course.
I don't see and SNP decline. Can UKIP and LD snare those 2% from the Tories ? Not impossible.0 -
I should be seeing it this week. Unfortunately just before Christmas I was sat in a coffee shop and heard a young fan at the next table bewailing one of the key moments in the film. Kind of gave away what I suspect will be the big scene.RobD said:OT.. but finally booked my IMAX tickets for Star Wars. Can I make it five more days without it being spoiled I wonder?
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And yet black and white photos can be some of the most evocative and beautiful photographs around.Cyclefree said:Plato_Says said:Golly, haven't seen a black and white set in two or three decades. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/black-white-tv-still-watched-7077902
More than 9,000 people in the UK still watch black and white TV – nearly 50 years after the first colour broadcast.
Half a century after David Attenborough raced to broadcast colour TV in the UK ahead of German TV bosses, thousands of people still live in the technological dark ages.
Wasn't it Chris Mullins MP who only claimed expenses for a black and white TV set?
Portraits are often better in black and white. The tonal quality is far superior and colour is often incorrect for flesh tones.
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