politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Seasonal greetings from Marf and Ratty who’ll be returning
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Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford850 -
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
Other way round, surely? Rapid runoff and dredged rivers = rapid flow of water = flooded town centres downstream. To be sure, it's a complex system, and I am sure that generalisation doesn;t always apply.blackburn63 said:I wish the Leave campaign would point out the stupidity of the EU directive on dredging rivers and the consequences thereof, rainfall is not especially high, rivers are overflowing because the EU won't allow them to be dredged.
It's unlikely we'll see that on the BBC so the better informed on here might like to discuss.
But as I recall, the Somerset Levels floods a few years back were a tradeoff against many more people affected by urban flooding downstream.
And the rainfall has been very high. Have a look at the Met Office blog.
Even Mr Gummer (I forget his peerage title) has been raising the issue of climate change and expressing disappointment at the lack of discussion on the broadcasters.
Edit: early days yet, it'll be interesting to see how analysis shapes out.
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No one doubts that but it does not solve the present problem. Many of these are in rural areas - Tory voters, who will now also be subsidised like bloody farmers !malcolmg said:
Obviously not, but they could at least try to do any future building in a better manner and get experts to look at how they can alleviate/remedy some of the worst hit areas for the future.surbiton said:
Yes, that has certainly contributed. But we have what we have. Are we going to demolish these houses ? Are we going to uncarpet the roads and car parks ?Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
malcolmg said:
"Too much concrete and tarmac nowadays and building has been done on floodplains etc , usual politicians that have caused the issues looking for short term gains."
Absolutely. The torrential rain in Cumbria earlier in the month was a record but only by a few percent. The real issue is exactly as you say. Building on both flood plain and water run off areas, reducing tree cover which allows soils to wash away and failing to maintain water courses - both by government, local authorities and private individuals.
Make them pay their extra insurance like we have to. They chose to live where they live.0 -
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
If Corbyn won't leave Labour, Labour will have to move on in a new vehicle and leave behind Corbyn and all that is unelectable. Doubltess a couple of multi-million donations would get the ball rolling. If the majority of the current Labour MPs went to this new entity, then rump Labour would be stuffed for Short money. The remaining students and property-is-theft brigade aren't going to make up that shortfall.Wanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.
Corbyn's greatest legacy maybe making the centre-left electable again. Just not under the banner of the Labour Party.0 -
The last time that happened Labour was out of office for 18 years. Corbyn will go anyway after 2020.MarqueeMark said:
If Corbyn won't leave Labour, Labour will have to move on in a new vehicle and leave behind Corbyn and all that is unelectable. Doubltess a couple of multi-million donations would get the ball rolling. If the majority of the current Labour MPs went to this new entity, then rump Labour would be stuffed for Short money. The remaining students and property-is-theft brigade aren't going to make up that shortfall.Wanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.
Corbyn's greatest legacy maybe making the centre-left electable again. Just not under the banner of the Labour Party.0 -
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
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Labour's own lawyers said in the Times they could if a challenger gets sufficient nominations and Corbyn does notsurbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
"What exactly has Benn done"...Avoided paying a penny IHT on his dear old socialist dads 5 million pound estate....0
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Never understood that position. To have challengers, you have to have someone to challenge. Otherwise, it's a coup....HYUFD said:
Labour's own lawyers said in the Times they could if a challenger gets sufficient nominations and Corbyn does notsurbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
That would be hardly surprising as it is the estate not the beneficiary who pays tax.richardDodd said:"What exactly has Benn done"...Avoided paying a penny IHT on his dear old socialist dads 5 million pound estate....
You might want to reword that for other reasons.
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It would be a coup in effect anywayMarqueeMark said:
Never understood that position. To have challengers, you have to have someone to challenge. Otherwise, it's a coup....HYUFD said:
Labour's own lawyers said in the Times they could if a challenger gets sufficient nominations and Corbyn does notsurbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
Yes. However Labour will then need to persuade swing voters that its flirtation with the hard left really is over. That is going to be hard and is going to involve gestures, similar to Blair's scrapping of Clause 4, that are going to be painful.surbiton said:
The last time that happened Labour was out of office for 18 years. Corbyn will go anyway after 2020.MarqueeMark said:
If Corbyn won't leave Labour, Labour will have to move on in a new vehicle and leave behind Corbyn and all that is unelectable. Doubltess a couple of multi-million donations would get the ball rolling. If the majority of the current Labour MPs went to this new entity, then rump Labour would be stuffed for Short money. The remaining students and property-is-theft brigade aren't going to make up that shortfall.
Corbyn's greatest legacy maybe making the centre-left electable again. Just not under the banner of the Labour Party.
I'm not sure it will be possible. Five years of Corbyn is going to take Labour into some very strange territory.-1 -
Cumbria is one of the least built up areas in England. There is not noticeable difference in the amount of land built on fifteen years ago, to today. All recent developments are now required to incorporate run off schemes as requested by water companies.Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
malcolmg said:
"Too much concrete and tarmac nowadays and building has been done on floodplains etc , usual politicians that have caused the issues looking for short term gains."
Absolutely. The torrential rain in Cumbria earlier in the month was a record but only by a few percent. The real issue is exactly as you say. Building on both flood plain and water run off areas, reducing tree cover which allows soils to wash away and failing to maintain water courses - both by government, local authorities and private individuals.
In the area of cumbria that i know, along the Caldew, Eden and Petteril, three rivers that meet up and caused a worse flooding event than 2005, which itself was supposed to be a 1 in hundred year event, there has been no greater amount of build. The fields that surrounded them in 2000 still surround them, and still have the same amount of woodland, if not more.
In terms of woodland there has been a concerted effort to actually increase the amount of woodland cover in the county. The woodland trust alone planted over 2,000 trees along a river derwent, an area that holds the water that essentially floods Keswick and Cockermouth.
Im not sure if it made any appreciable difference.0 -
Carnyx..The BENN ESTATE did not pay any Death Duties on the Death of Tony Benn..nice one..But I suppose the present Benn did absolutely nothing to make sure that worked out ok.. being a dyed in the wool socialist an all..0
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The only way I see there being an appetite amongst the voters to keep In/Out alive following a vote to remain, is if the Scots and/or Welsh and/or NI voting for In has blocked the majority view in England to get Out.HYUFD said:
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
But that will then be a wider constitutional clash, where the price to get out is the destruction of the United Kingdom. Will the English then vote to doubly go it alone - out of the EU AND out of the UK? I dunno, but I suspect those with the strongest loathing of the EU are those with the strongest attraction to the UK.0 -
Perhaps although about a quarter of SNP voters back Brexit. However if Out get about 48% UKIP could easily win 20% at the 2020 election even if they get less than half of those Out votersMarqueeMark said:
The only way I see there being an appetite amongst the voters to keep In/Out alive following a vote to remain, is if the Scots and/or Welsh and/or NI voting for In has blocked the majority view in England to get Out.HYUFD said:
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
But that will then be a wider constitutional clash, where the price to get out is the destruction of the United Kingdom. Will the English then vote to doubly go it alone - out of the EU AND out of the UK? I dunno, but I suspect those with the strongest loathing of the EU are those with the strongest attraction to the UK.0 -
I just don't see it. UKIP is not an attractive proposition. It's leader is not an attractive proposition. And if Corbyn is in place going into the next election, there will be an even bigger bogeyman for the small c conservative minded to have to slay than the EU - red in claw and tooth Socialism --> Communism.HYUFD said:
Perhaps although about a quarter of SNP voters back Brexit. However if Out get about 48% UKIP could easily win 20% at the 2020 election even if they get less than half of those Out votersMarqueeMark said:
The only way I see there being an appetite amongst the voters to keep In/Out alive following a vote to remain, is if the Scots and/or Welsh and/or NI voting for In has blocked the majority view in England to get Out.HYUFD said:
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
But that will then be a wider constitutional clash, where the price to get out is the destruction of the United Kingdom. Will the English then vote to doubly go it alone - out of the EU AND out of the UK? I dunno, but I suspect those with the strongest loathing of the EU are those with the strongest attraction to the UK.-1 -
FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
Until we get to EU ref who knows but I could easily see a 2020 result something like 33% Tory, 31% Labour and 20% UKIPMarqueeMark said:
I just don't see it. UKIP is not an attractive proposition. It's leader is not an attractive proposition. And if Corbyn is in place going into the next election, there will be an even bigger bogeyman for the small c conservative minded to have to slay than the EU - red in claw and tooth Socialism --> Communism.HYUFD said:
Perhaps although about a quarter of SNP voters back Brexit. However if Out get about 48% UKIP could easily win 20% at the 2020 election even if they get less than half of those Out votersMarqueeMark said:
The only way I see there being an appetite amongst the voters to keep In/Out alive following a vote to remain, is if the Scots and/or Welsh and/or NI voting for In has blocked the majority view in England to get Out.HYUFD said:
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
But that will then be a wider constitutional clash, where the price to get out is the destruction of the United Kingdom. Will the English then vote to doubly go it alone - out of the EU AND out of the UK? I dunno, but I suspect those with the strongest loathing of the EU are those with the strongest attraction to the UK.0 -
Greetings from the Ricoh Arena. Half time Wasps v Saracens. It's tight - 6-3 to the visitors. 20,000+ crowd.
I am all for the Corbyn reshuffle. The more the hard left own Labour's catastrophic unelectability the better. And moving out moderates may show at least a few useful idiots that nice, polite Jeremy has absolutely no interest at all in being ecumenical.
Dianne Abbott as shadow foreign secretary is a delicious prospect.0 -
Rod, you seem to have fashioned yourself quite a niche here - telling people what they don't want to hear....RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
Test - hello again0
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There is little a beneficiary can do, other than advise the testator in their lifetime (to seek professional advice, in an estate of this size).richardDodd said:Carnyx..The BENN ESTATE did not pay any Death Duties on the Death of Tony Benn..nice one..But I suppose the present Benn did absolutely nothing to make sure that worked out ok.. being a dyed in the wool socialist an all..
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One of the worst impacted ward, in the most flooded district from a few weeks ago has a by election on the 7th Jan...Plato_Says said:Harry Cole
Two conflicting press releases about correct response to floods in two hours from Shadow Chancellor and shadow Defra.0 -
It won'tr make an appreciable difference for probably 50 years or so. Young trees simply don't have the ability to hold the soil and hold water that mature trees have, The problem was the clearing in the first place. recovering from that is no short term fix.notme said:
Cumbria is one of the least built up areas in England. There is not noticeable difference in the amount of land built on fifteen years ago, to today. All recent developments are now required to incorporate run off schemes as requested by water companies.Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
malcolmg said:
"Too much concrete and tarmac nowadays and building has been done on floodplains etc , usual politicians that have caused the issues looking for short term gains."
Absolutely. The torrential rain in Cumbria earlier in the month was a record but only by a few percent. The real issue is exactly as you say. Building on both flood plain and water run off areas, reducing tree cover which allows soils to wash away and failing to maintain water courses - both by government, local authorities and private individuals.
In the area of cumbria that i know, along the Caldew, Eden and Petteril, three rivers that meet up and caused a worse flooding event than 2005, which itself was supposed to be a 1 in hundred year event, there has been no greater amount of build. The fields that surrounded them in 2000 still surround them, and still have the same amount of woodland, if not more.
In terms of woodland there has been a concerted effort to actually increase the amount of woodland cover in the county. The woodland trust alone planted over 2,000 trees along a river derwent, an area that holds the water that essentially floods Keswick and Cockermouth.
Im not sure if it made any appreciable difference.0 -
Rod Crosby There is very little the beneficiary can do except ROTFLHAO.and singing The Red Flag...0
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Hopefully no PBers and their loved ones have been caught up in the floods.0
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PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
Gummer has been a fanatic for climate change since it first appeared as an excuse. Of course he will take every opportunity to make false attributions. Yes the rainfall has been high and we should expect some flooding. But it is not significantly higher than it has been in the past and for December as a whole in England it is almost exactly at the 1981 to 2010 average at 99% anomaly. It is only higher than average rainfall in Scotland and Wales that has dragged the UK total up.Carnyx said:
Other way round, surely? Rapid runoff and dredged rivers = rapid flow of water = flooded town centres downstream. To be sure, it's a complex system, and I am sure that generalisation doesn;t always apply.blackburn63 said:I wish the Leave campaign would point out the stupidity of the EU directive on dredging rivers and the consequences thereof, rainfall is not especially high, rivers are overflowing because the EU won't allow them to be dredged.
It's unlikely we'll see that on the BBC so the better informed on here might like to discuss.
But as I recall, the Somerset Levels floods a few years back were a tradeoff against many more people affected by urban flooding downstream.
And the rainfall has been very high. Have a look at the Met Office blog.
Even Mr Gummer (I forget his peerage title) has been raising the issue of climate change and expressing disappointment at the lack of discussion on the broadcasters.
Edit: early days yet, it'll be interesting to see how analysis shapes out.0 -
Projected vote?MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Personal vote?0 -
The EU won't go away, if there's a Remain vote. Indeed, I'd expect the EU to see it as a green light for More Europe. They could argue, very reasonably, that this is what the British people had signed up to. The British government will argue that they didn't sign up to this, and so the argument continues.MarqueeMark said:
The only way I see there being an appetite amongst the voters to keep In/Out alive following a vote to remain, is if the Scots and/or Welsh and/or NI voting for In has blocked the majority view in England to get Out.HYUFD said:
Yes but the referendum itself offers a second chance especially if it is a narrow InMarqueeMark said:
Re-reading Rod's thread from May 2014, the references to the UKIP position that was going to get them multiple MPs holding the balance of power this year was interesting. UKIP believed only they could force an In/Out Referendum. Being proven wrong that Cameron would never, ever deliver that referendum really does seem to have taken the wind out of UKIP's sails.blackburn63 said:Not a chance. I'm a committed kipper but as it stands we don't have an earthly of winning a by election. No resources, no infrastructure, no money, we've even lost our message.
But that will then be a wider constitutional clash, where the price to get out is the destruction of the United Kingdom. Will the English then vote to doubly go it alone - out of the EU AND out of the UK? I dunno, but I suspect those with the strongest loathing of the EU are those with the strongest attraction to the UK.
In any case, UKIP (or something similar) continues for so long as large numbers of people lose out from globalisation.0 -
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
300 mad new members who love Jeremy Corbyn and his lovely vests are not going to make a whit of difference, except give the Corbynites reasons to cling on to the painful and fateful delusion that they can actually win back seats.
What's more, if you look at the data in that seat, and the hints in the allied article, it's clear where these new members are coming from: the even leftier Greens, who ran Labour a close 5th in North Cornwall.
These people will take Labour in Cornwall further from the centre.
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.0 -
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
It's certainly up there, and it is my personal favourite.SeanT said:My publishers gave me a bottle as a present for getting a number 1 on the charts, and I looked at it askance at first: Just a bottle of malt, where's my vintage champagne, etc
Then I tried it. Bloody hell. An amazing whisky. Some say it's the best in the world and they might be right.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. T, my mother got, as a Christmas gift, something called The Ice Twins. Apparently it's moderately readable.
Welcome back, Miss Marf.0 -
And if Labour do suffer a landslide reverse in 2020, their realistic next opportunity for a win is when? 2030?
I'll be a pensioner...0 -
@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?0
-
Did Scrooge McCorbyn end up giving his Christmas message?0
-
I was reading it as 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Perhaps Rod can clarify
0 -
Is that the Popular Vote of Judaea, or the Judaean Popular Vote?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.0 -
I think we are awaiting his New Year message.Sunil_Prasannan said:Did Scrooge McCorbyn end up giving his Christmas message?
0 -
The details are in the Chronicle article I linked to upthread.MikeSmithson said:
@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
0 -
Unlike you to be so slow, Mike.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
I mean it looks like the Tories will be at least 10% ahead in the popular vote in 2020. What the actual numbers are is anyone's guess (and largely irrelevant under FPTP).
A straw in the wind, however, at this early juncture. Corbyn could yet be recognized as the Messiah, I suppose...0 -
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
0 -
The PED documentary is well worth 40 mins of people's time.0
-
F1: for those of you who missed it, here's my belated 2015 season review, team-by-team, with thoughts on 2016 as well:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/2015-season-review.html0 -
The missus has a ground floor flat in York and is now in a bit of a flap....Sunil_Prasannan said:Hopefully no PBers and their loved ones have been caught up in the floods.
0 -
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-w_PSHJoUbArichardDodd said:Rod Crosby There is very little the beneficiary can do except ROTFLHAO.and singing The Red Flag...
And, of course, in Arabic !0 -
I think he meant 21% instead of 31% in 2015.Wanderer said:
I was reading it as 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Perhaps Rod can clarify0 -
They did in 2007.surbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
Congrats. Maybe the next one will ride the coattails and it's the one after to look out for ... But kudos for writing a best seller and may 2016 be as successful for you.SeanT said:
Hah. I am glad she was moderately diverted. Please give your mother my festive salutations.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Mr. T, my mother got, as a Christmas gift, something called The Ice Twins. Apparently it's moderately readable.
Welcome back, Miss Marf.
ICE TWINS is selling everywhere. Tesco's are shipping shedloads. A friend of mine came back from Australia and said it was so bloody ubiquitous over there he began to get obscurely angry.
The next book will be a total and embarrassing flop, I am sure, so I am enjoying this brief success. Sic Transit.0 -
@RodCrosby
When you make numerical statements you need to be totally clear about what you mean and don't assume that everybody understands what you mean by when you use initials like PV.0 -
You keep saying that, but it's the NEC that interprets the rules, and JC is quickly making it Corbyn-friendly.HYUFD said:
Labour's own lawyers said in the Times they could if a challenger gets sufficient nominations and Corbyn does notsurbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
Mr. T, brief?
Hasn't it been in the bestsellers' list for a period so lengthy as to be considered vulgar?
She got many books so I don't know when she'll read it, but I shall report back her opinion.0 -
Rather disingenuous of you Mike.MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf
Whilst there is no specific EU law on dredging there are EU laws which affect whether or not dredging occurs by placing a huge financial burden on anyone wanting to dredge.0 -
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
And of course it is nice to gain members, and good to win council seats. But my larger point remains entirely valid. Barely a decade ago Labour actually had MPs in Cornwall, now they are utterly irrelevant.
Will a leftier Labour party full of excited, hairy, mildly insane defectors from the Greens win back any of those seats? No. (have you met any Cornish Greens? - I have, oh dear oh dear).
But they will give Labour the delusion they are recovering, which makes it all worse, as Corbyn depends on this false optimism. And the net effect will probably be a LOSS of seats in the end.
So, paradoxically, it would be better for you in the long term if Labour membership imploded right now, so Corbyn could be ousted.0 -
All the best whiskies come from the Islands, Highland Park, Talisker, Islay, Jura.SeanT said:
Have you tried 18 year old Highland Park?HurstLlama said:
The dire lack of talent is not something that afflicts Labour alone. The actual government Front Bench, never mind its shadow, does not exactly sparkle.malcolmg said:
Afternoon Hurst, you could call it lust or future greed, they are looking to feather their own nests. Neither have shown any talent , I doubt they could run a bath. The dire lack of any talent is the real Labour issue rather than Corbyn , he is just the symptom of how poor the remainder of them really are.
Hard to see Labour doing anything till thy get rid of these two and their ilk, it is unfortunate that Corbyn is not up to a cull of the dead wood. Now is the time to do it and hope some new talent surfaces by the next election, not as if they have much to beat.
On a happy note, my boy bought me a bottle of the 16 year-old Jura for Christmas. I have had the Jura before but not that one - I have to say I am impressed (and me an Islay fan of many years standing).
My publishers gave me a bottle as a present for getting a number 1 on the charts, and I looked at it askance at first: Just a bottle of malt, where's my vintage champagne, etc
Then I tried it. Bloody hell. An amazing whisky. Some say it's the best in the world and they might be right.
https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/P-6942.aspx0 -
-
Disingenuous of you , actually. Nowhere does it state that you cannot dredge as the Somerset Levels dredging proves it. You and your mates never qualified your statement.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rather disingenuous of you Mike.MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf
Whilst there is no specific EU law on dredging there are EU laws which affect whether or not dredging occurs by placing a huge financial burden on anyone wanting to dredge.
There is no ban on dredging by the EU. Simple.0 -
10% behind the winner of the popular vote.surbiton said:
I think he meant 21% instead of 31% in 2015.Wanderer said:
I was reading it as 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Perhaps Rod can clarify
0 -
How long do we give them until they are bust then?JBriskin said:0 -
Ice Twins has finally just been handed back to me by my wife..who snatched it ..she reckons it would make a good movie..and she seems to know about such things0
-
So, like 1987 ?RodCrosby said:
10% behind the winner of the popular vote.surbiton said:
I think he meant 21% instead of 31% in 2015.Wanderer said:
I was reading it as 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Perhaps Rod can clarify0 -
I didn't make the statement in the first place, neither when the levels were flooding nor now. So forget disingenuous. You just made an outright false statement.surbiton said:
Disingenuous of you , actually. Nowhere does it state that you cannot dredge as the Somerset Levels dredging proves it. You and your mates never qualified your statement.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rather disingenuous of you Mike.MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf
Whilst there is no specific EU law on dredging there are EU laws which affect whether or not dredging occurs by placing a huge financial burden on anyone wanting to dredge.
There is no ban on dredging by the EU. Simple.
All I was doing was pointing out to Mike that you don't have to have a specific law in place to make something very difficult or impossible to do.0 -
On the last thread I noticed people trying to prove human caused climate change by referring to weather records that go back less than a century and a half. Rather brave.0
-
FUrguhart - as long as he doesn't get the keys to the fleet cars should be okay ? - or something0
-
I hope he has recovered from the ordeal. Or, has he volunteered to stay there ?SeanT said:
Friend of mine was enduring a dour Yorkshire Boxing Day with his mother-in-law, when the floods got so bad they had to be evacuated, allowing him to spend the rest of the day in the pub...notme said:
The missus has a ground floor flat in York and is now in a bit of a flap....Sunil_Prasannan said:Hopefully no PBers and their loved ones have been caught up in the floods.
0 -
Camborne was Labour from 1950-70.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
And of course it is nice to gain members, and good to win council seats. But my larger point remains entirely valid. Barely a decade ago Labour actually had MPs in Cornwall, now they are utterly irrelevant.
Will a leftier Labour party full of excited, hairy, mildly insane defectors from the Greens win back any of those seats? No. (have you met any Cornish Greens? - I have, oh dear oh dear).
But they will give Labour the delusion they are recovering, which makes it all worse, as Corbyn depends on this false optimism. And the net effect will probably be a LOSS of seats in the end.
So, paradoxically, it would be better for you in the long term if Labour membership imploded right now, so Corbyn could be ousted.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
While there may be no EU law specifically on dredging, Mike Smithson is wrong to imply that there is no EU law that affects dredging. There is plenty:
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf0 -
We will get it back. Is Seb Coe from Cornwall ?Sean_F said:
Camborne was Labour from 1950-70.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
And of course it is nice to gain members, and good to win council seats. But my larger point remains entirely valid. Barely a decade ago Labour actually had MPs in Cornwall, now they are utterly irrelevant.
Will a leftier Labour party full of excited, hairy, mildly insane defectors from the Greens win back any of those seats? No. (have you met any Cornish Greens? - I have, oh dear oh dear).
But they will give Labour the delusion they are recovering, which makes it all worse, as Corbyn depends on this false optimism. And the net effect will probably be a LOSS of seats in the end.
So, paradoxically, it would be better for you in the long term if Labour membership imploded right now, so Corbyn could be ousted.0 -
Where are Norwich heading Ed....
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/media/images/71826000/jpg/_71826741_ballsdown.jpg0 -
Another British first: first man to ever row solo across the Pacific:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-35186209
Very impressive, though he must be stark raving mad.0 -
Not convinced by Tristram Hunt that Labour is now the party of rural England?SeanT said:
Labour had MPs in Cornwall back through the 50s and 60s.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falmouth_and_Camborne_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Cornwall has never been that fertile for Labour, but I posit that under Corbyn the party will do even worse than usual, west of the Tamar.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/countryside/12067570/Labour-is-now-the-party-of-rural-England.html0 -
That drinker in York will probably stay in the pub until the water reaches top of the bar level...not nice having wet elbows0
-
Mr. kle4, why not? Just because the Shadow Minister for Agriculture [or whatever the title is] wants to make meat socially unacceptable?0
-
It's the 1983 and 87 elections that broke the link. Bloody SDP. But we will be back in contention. I guess by 2025.SeanT said:
Labour had MPs in Cornwall back through the 50s and 60s.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falmouth_and_Camborne_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Cornwall has never been that fertile for Labour, but I posit that under Corbyn the party will do even worse than usual, west of the Tamar.0 -
I think the rules are different when we are in government.ThreeQuidder said:
They did in 2007.surbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
MD I think that rower did the Atlantic last year..He is a Yorkshireman so that probably explains it..maybe he comes from York and is used to it0
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The Kings Arms in York, a city where I used to live, has built up a reputation over the decades as "the pub that floods" - all part of its appeal.richardDodd said:That drinker in York will probably stay in the pub until the water reaches top of the bar level...not nice having wet elbows
http://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/ShowUserReviews-g186346-d5565863-r189615490-Kings_Arms-York_North_Yorkshire_England.html
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Mr Tyndall. Snap. Sorry I did not see this before posting an almost identical post with the same reference link.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rather disingenuous of you Mike.MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf
Whilst there is no specific EU law on dredging there are EU laws which affect whether or not dredging occurs by placing a huge financial burden on anyone wanting to dredge.0 -
Sure it is. No doubt there's a pub that makes a virtue of serving the worst beer in the nation as well, as part of its appeal.MikeSmithson said:
The Kings Arms in York, a city where I used to live, has built up a reputation over the decades as "the pub that floods" - all part of its appeal.richardDodd said:That drinker in York will probably stay in the pub until the water reaches top of the bar level...not nice having wet elbows
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No worries old chap. :-)MTimT said:
Mr Tyndall. Snap. Sorry I did not see this before posting an almost identical post with the same reference link.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rather disingenuous of you Mike.MikeSmithson said:
There is no EU law on dredging. @Blackburn63 is wrong to assert that there is.surbiton said:
Mike, a posted a bbc clip about dredging in Somerset Plains. It all went quiet after that. Cheap anti-EU stunts, that's all.MikeSmithson said:@Blackburn63 - Are you going to respond to my query about your assertion that it is against EU law to dredge rivers?
http://www.european-dredging.eu/pdf/EULawOnDredging.pdf
Whilst there is no specific EU law on dredging there are EU laws which affect whether or not dredging occurs by placing a huge financial burden on anyone wanting to dredge.0 -
Mr. Smithson, aye, York's always flooding, though not usually quite so much.
Mr. Dodd, if so, he'll only have the Indian Ocean left (I think the north and south seas probably too dangerous. And rowing the South China Sea might be a bit risky).0 -
OGH I filmed the same pub many times..practically every year..nice pub in the summer tho0
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Yes but no.surbiton said:
I think the rules are different when we are in government.ThreeQuidder said:
They did in 2007.surbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.
They are different but it wouldn't affect this mode of leadership change: bully the leader out before he wants to go and then bully enough of your MPs to nominate a candidate unopposed.0 -
Welcome back, Mr. Briskin.0
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Thanks Morris!!0
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The NEC is not yet the Corbynista politburo and any coup would likely occur by the end of 2017 before it becomes soThreeQuidder said:
You keep saying that, but it's the NEC that interprets the rules, and JC is quickly making it Corbyn-friendly.HYUFD said:
Labour's own lawyers said in the Times they could if a challenger gets sufficient nominations and Corbyn does notsurbiton said:
Labour MPs cannot impose a new leader. This is not the Tory party.HYUFD said:
There is no point even challenging Corbyn if the members are consulted, a challenge would have to be an MP orchestrated coup and that is only likely to happen if Labour start losing seats to UKIP in by elections in which case there is no alternativeWanderer said:
I think that is exactly right. One way or another, Corbyn will be on the ballot if he wants to be.surbiton said:Corbyn will get the numbers needed to get the nominations. The situation is totally different now. Many of the current shadow cabinet and junior position holders will nominate him for a start. I reckon he will get 60 - 80 nominations today.
Someone - I think Stephen Bush - summed this up the other day:
* The only candidate who can replace Corbyn against his will is one who can beat Corbyn in a ballot of the membership.
* There is no such candidate in the PLP.
Conclusion: Corbyn will go when he chooses. Concerning when that will be, I thought the most significant line in the recent Independent article that trails these sackings was one that said that, after Oldham, Corbyn thinks he can win the election and become Prime Minister. I think we can safely say:
* While he thinks that he won't resign.
* He won't stop thinking that easily. That kind of thought is hard to dislodge.
For which reason, I think Corbyn will neither resign nor be ousted before 2020.0 -
Mr. HYUFD, hmm. I thought Corbyn had a majority of loyal dunderheads on the NEC?0
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UKIP will be the biggest gainers in 2020 in my view post EU ref so even if Labour stands still I doubt the Tories will reach a 10% leadRodCrosby said:
10% behind the winner of the popular vote.surbiton said:
I think he meant 21% instead of 31% in 2015.Wanderer said:
I was reading it as 10 percentage points behind the Conservatives.MikeSmithson said:
By 10% deficit in the popular vote do you mean 10% of the party's GE2015 share or ten percentage points i.e 28% of the GB vote or 21%?RodCrosby said:
Popular Vote.MikeSmithson said:
PV generally means postal votes. What are you referring to?RodCrosby said:FPT: If R&T are correct in their estimate - and Corbyn doesn't dramatically improve during 2017-2019 - a 1% loss in the NEV next year would suggest that Labour are looking down the barrel of a landslide defeat in 2020...
In excess of a 10% deficit in the PV.
Perhaps Rod can clarify0 -
Not at the moment in a few years time maybeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, hmm. I thought Corbyn had a majority of loyal dunderheads on the NEC?
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Labour had tons of seats in the counties during that period, as did the Tories in the cities.Sean_F said:
Camborne was Labour from 1950-70.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:
I appreciate your dilemma, and sympathise. Heh.surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
And of course it is nice to gain members, and good to win council seats. But my larger point remains entirely valid. Barely a decade ago Labour actually had MPs in Cornwall, now they are utterly irrelevant.
Will a leftier Labour party full of excited, hairy, mildly insane defectors from the Greens win back any of those seats? No. (have you met any Cornish Greens? - I have, oh dear oh dear).
But they will give Labour the delusion they are recovering, which makes it all worse, as Corbyn depends on this false optimism. And the net effect will probably be a LOSS of seats in the end.
So, paradoxically, it would be better for you in the long term if Labour membership imploded right now, so Corbyn could be ousted.
The long term urban-rural, north-south spatial polarization of votes has reduced these results to historical curiosities...0 -
Momentum Huddersfield
@hilarybennmp Shadow Cabinet reshuffle soon lad. So you'll have more time to spend with your constituents.0 -
It 's right that Labour supporters in Cornwall and Devon should have someone to vote for. There's probably a latent Labour vote of 20% or so, across both counties. That could be reduced in a particular constituency to 5%, due to tactical voting for Lib Dems.surbiton said:
We will get it back. Is Seb Coe from Cornwall ?Sean_F said:
Camborne was Labour from 1950-70.surbiton said:
Labour had only one MP in Camborne won in a landslide, She kept her seat in 2001 as that was largely the same result as in 1997. I am not sure when they had an MP before that.SeanT said:surbiton said:
So , what should Labour do in places like Cornwall ? Give up ? Cornwall is Britain's poorest county.SeanT said:
For me this summarises Labour's problem.Plato_Says said:Jim Pickard
Labour has attracted 10 times as many new members in London than in Scotland since May https://t.co/hKmkdrq25x 40k and 4k respectively
Biggest increases in London and university towns (eg Manchester) @ChrispLOL @dancrawford85
The Corbynites are orgasming over 300 new members in North Cornwall. A surge in membership. A SURGE!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/681118857713598464
But look at their result in North Cornwall in 2015.
They came fourth. With 5%. Fully 19,000 votes adrift of the winning Tory
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000837
Nineteen thousand votes behind. 19,000!
I suspect the consequence for Labour, in the south west, of the Corbyn leadership, will be a net loss of MPs, as Ben Bradshaw is defeated in Exeter.
The Labour vote in 2010 in the six Cornish seats was 8.64%. In 2015 it was 12.3%
The Tory vote also went up: from 40.95% to 43.10%. LD: 22.4% [41.76%]. UKIP 13.83% [4.9%]
In the past, Labour's policy was benign neglect. We sub-contracted out to the Lib Dems - the Tory "B" team.
It is to Ed Miliband's credit that the first "organisor" was appointed for Devon and Cornwall. I think you will find Labour will begin to win a few council seats. Labour should never again give up some regions. It is going to be a long haul.
Now, the Lib Dems are gone. Labour, UKIP, Greens (and remaining Lib Dems) are all scrapping for the non-Conservative vote. The Conservatives are sitting pretty on 45% or so.0
