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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef surve
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef survey
Lord Ashcroft’s post on the survey, linked to above, is well worth reading because it goes into far more than just referendum voting intention. On the immigration issue Lord Ashcroft notes that it is actually quite complex:
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Edit:
The last line of Ashcroft's snippet above should give UKIP hope: they can set themselves up as the party who can be trusted to deliver it.
It's interesting to see pollsters try different approaches, especially when they show such wild divergences.
(Except in football of course. We need to make you feel superior in one thing ...)
Immigration as a factor for Leave only works if it is credible, so means leaving the EEA. Even before we get to the problem that is non EU migration (the bit that people actually dislike).
That is what I call a PB EXCLUSIVE !!
But most people are not interested in politics, and UKIP's troubles will largely have passed them by.
Still, that's too much football talk for this time in the morning. I'm feeling a little queasy.
One possible explanation is that the internet polling is once again of a highly unrepresentative sample. PB itself is something of a demonstration. I would say there is now a clear majority of contributors on PB who want to leave. The differences are between those that want right out and those who think staying in the EEA is a better idea, albeit it does not deliver on the immigration issue that Lord A has raised.
Is this typical of the population as a whole? I highly doubt it. Is it indicative of what people's positions might be once they actually start applying their minds to the issue? Maybe, and that has to be the leaver's hope. My gut feel is that the telephone polling is much more indicative of where people are at the moment and that the internet polling is more indicative of those that are interested and engaged.
But who knows? These wide discrepancies threaten to do yet more damage to the polling industry and ultimately destroy any remaining demand for their product.
* Immigration in the 10's of thousands (no ifs, no buts)
* A Treaty protecting British Interests
* "fundamental, far-reaching change"
* "new mechanisms in place to prevent vast migrations across the continent"
* "bringing back control of Britain's borders".
* : "I will not take no for an answer and when it comes to free movement - I will get what Britain needs."
* a red card for national parliaments on EU laws
* no benefits for 4 years for migrants
* a British Bill of Rights to override the ECHR
Oh, wait....
For betting purposes though I think the hype in the polls and europhobic press (ironically mostly foreign owned) will make it appear a close race. I have been backing Leave on Betfair and as the odds shift am comfortably in the green.
What have the kippers ever achieved at any level of government? Apart from feathering their own nests?
I am no Cameronite, but he clearly is not pretending to be Blair. If you think that what he campaigned on in May was the same as New Labour then you have lost touch with reality.
There are too many partisan Tories on here who think the colour of the rosette is all that matters, and that any principles or values are up for sale if it wins the election... a fair few real people could care less about the colour the rosette, they want a government with principles and direction, notably the Blue Labour voters for Fatcha.
The last six words matter, if his sampling is crap, and fails to identify a sample representative of the voting population, all the larger sample does is means it is more likely his results will be representation of the view of that bad sample.
As we have said a number of times, telephone and especially email polling is with a heavily self-selecting (and hence probably unrepresentative) sample. Full on Stratified Random Sampling (such as used in social sciences research) which gives a very good representative sample is incredibly expensive, so won't be used.
Sooner or later the Conservative Party establishment will come to realise that reform from within the EU is impossible.
But not under Cameron.
But since he said before the "negotiation" started that he could not countenance leaving the EU under any circumstance, the chances of him actually getting any of them was zero ("I won't countenance not buying your car under any circumstances, how does £500 sound"), and he cannot have been so naive and poorly advised not to know that this was the case, ergo, he never actually intend to get any of them.
Leave need to cease campaigning to amuse their most fervent supporters (35% of the vote is already there) and must focus on the 15-20% or so who might be convinced by a moderate Leave message. Think TSE.
This shouldn't even need saying, but it does. It also means keeping Farage licking the envelopes in the back office or, if he must, just helping turn out his base on the day itself.
There is one honourable exception and that is Douglas Carswell. His policies may be wrong headed but he can't be criticised for expenses or ripping off the taxpayer (even when that stand brings him into conflict with Farage).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32707357
The choice we are going to be given is indeed binary but the question of what happens next in the event of Out is, to my mind, their biggest problem. Whichever campaign is classified as the Official Out campaign really needs to work on getting a common position and working through all the implications of their choice in a credible way (ie no SNP style fantasy stuff).
There's a big opportunity there. Of course, UKIP'd need to get someone half competent in charge to substantially gain from it ...
I sometimes answer unrecognised or withheld numbers for light relief, but the "opinion pollers" to whom I've spoken are virtually always thinly disgused marketing exercises for solar panels or life insurance. I think I've once had someone ask a political intention question" but when I said I intended to vote Plaid Cymru he rang off assuming apparently, that since he'd rung an East of England number, I was some sort of spoiler.Or nutter!
Must try MRLP next time.
Look, you want to stay in the EU, that's fine, a lot of us have absolutely no fear of leaving the EU despite the scare stories. The debate is about sovereignty and free trade, it really is simple.
My point in another post is there are senior labour figures who will vote Leave and influence Labour supporters, in the same way that people such as Hammond and May will. How Cameron manages it will be fascinating.
There's a big opportunity there. Of course, UKIP'd need to get someone half competent in charge to substantially gain from it ...
You are obsessed with ukip.
In its current form ukip is finished as a party that has aspirations to win Westminster seats, kippers are actively campaigning to leave the EU, party politics is put aside. i understand that tribalists find it hard to believe that some people campaign for what's best for the country but its a fact none the less.
Presumably that stricture to avoid hyperbole or exaggerated claims also applies to claims such as '3 million jobs at risk' and 'Britain isolated/won't survive'...and also the broader claim that Britain can remain an independent state in an organisation in which most members are determined to move towards a federal union?
Might be a useful approach from Ashcroft. If accurate, it'll help give a clearer picture of those potentially open to changing their mind.
There is nothing simple about either free trade or sovereignty in the modern world. I am tending towards voting leave because it looks increasingly unlikely that Cameron will be able to get adequate protection for Britain's interests in an EU controlled by QMV and the EZ bloc vote but there has to be a realistic and worked through alternative.
I guess he wants what's bad for Cameron ultimately.
Broadsheet readers have made up their minds, read the Telegraph and Guardian, it's the tabloids that will decide.
In its current form ukip is finished as a party that has aspirations to win Westminster seats, kippers are actively campaigning to leave the EU, party politics is put aside. i understand that tribalists find it hard to believe that some people campaign for what's best for the country but its a fact none the less.
Really? That's the best you can do? I'm obsessed with UKIP?
I'm not, and that might best be directed at others on this forum. But this is a website about politics, and I thought that line was of interest and a potential way forward for the party. My original comment was hardly anti-UKIP.
David you write this is as if there is some desperate need to find a 'holy grail' of a functioning example of independent states outside the EU. If I may say so that seems a terribly parochial view and perhaps a nice example of how EU membership has turned the eyes of many people in the UK inwards.
In reality there is a range of models for a new relationship with our ex-EU partners and the rest of the world, and these include not just Norway/Switzerland but examples in the wider world too. Canada and Mexico's relationships with the US, various Asian countries' relationships with China & each other, NZ with Australia etc. etc.
If we open our eyes we can see that the idea of a country like the UK - a medium-sized and wealthy country - doing perfectly well as an independent state is hardly an oddity.
People like John Major claiming such a move will put us in 'danger' are just lying and are insulting our intelligence.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union#Negotiation_progress
A rather superb Google Doodle today:
https://www.google.co.uk/
Polls that return 90%+ results with 'decision made' outcomes are dubious.
You shouldn't be putting him off by objecting to the fact his reasons for doing so are different to yours.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4643202.ece
Are phone polls conducted in the day and not in the night-time? Just wondered if drink had anything to do with the outcomes.. After all people tend to be more "belligerent" and anti things with a few inside them...
A guy I know set up a small and very focussed charity, and aimed for 95% of all money raised to go to the cause. He succeeded through hard graft: things like getting local firms to donate stamps that he could use to mail items, and donating his time for free.
On charities, I'm unshocked to learn that many CEOs earn £100K. Big charities are like big business and the question should be whether the donors are getting value for money. I contribute to Oxfam in the hope that they'll effectively campaign for foreign aid and help provide it directly. They seem to do so, so if their CEO gets £100K and an £80K boss would be less effective, that's fine with me.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10224104/30-charity-chiefs-paid-more-than-100000.html
A week out from polling day, you could say phone polls were more accurate, as they were putting the Conservatives 4-6% ahead, but then they all reverted to level-pegging by the end.
This is a fundamentally flawed process because you can only reweight by known variables, but we are interested in the unknown variables of voting intention and likelihood to bother.
Real election results, even in council by-elections, at least have some validity.
We spent ZERO on salaries, worked out of the back office of a local business and used their office consumables/computers. Anyone helping us could be certain we weren't farting about or frittering away their donations. I'm pretty cynical about the Big Charidees, but I'm
IT'S TRUE, GEORGE O IS A NUMPTY!
https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/677409435753521152
*I see the Times article refers to thinktanks, theatres etc so not charities in the usual sense.
I hope Guy Pelly is being kept abreast of all matters of State.
I'm surprised that 1,000 employees merit £100,000 + p.a.
Epic fail.
In the EU poll a year before, several internet polls had been horrendously wrong, overstating in Lab's favour by 5.5 points, a feat they repeated just twelve months later.
The observed (in)accuracy of the pollsters in these dry runs is arguably the most valuable pointer in a GE.
Opinium are usually among the better web pollsters. They were pointing to a big Tory win on their certain to vote indicator in April.
Look at the chuggers. They charge quite a high amount to do their job but bring in a lot of money. People may despise them but they are effective and are a critical fund-raising channel for charities.
TBH, I've never met a nice one. Years ago I had a lot of contact with the bigger charities - and almost all of them left me feeling that any means to an end was justified. Lobbying with added self-righteousness. Bumbling incompetence is quaint but equally unacceptable.
All of the unemployment caused by Brown' incompetence has now been eliminated and youth unemployment is at its lowest for 9 years. Most of the EZ countries must weep as their more ambitious and better qualified seek better opportunities here.
I simply do not believe that such continued level of growth in employment is consistent with a mere 2.5% growth this year. I think it is very likely that these figures will be increased to over 3% eventually. It just might take a few years and, by then, not be of interest to anyone but economic historians.