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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs
As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP surge.
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Meanwhile Farage and UKIP won't touch this with a ten-foot bargepole, silly season is in full swing.
Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time?
Please tick up to three.
Economy: 66(+2)
Immigration & Asylum: 50(-1)
Health: 41(+4)
Welfare Benefits: 28(-2))
Housing: 16(0)
Crime: 13(-1)
Pension: 13(0)
Education: 13(0)
Europe: 12 (+1)
Tax: 8(-3)
Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing you and your family at this time?
Please tick up to three.
Economy: 54(-1)
Health: 38(+1)
Pensions: 28(+1)
Tax: 20(-2)
Education:: 15(0)
Welfare Benefits: 15 (+1)
Immigration & Asylum: 14(0)
Housing: 13(0)
Family Life & Childcare: 12(+1)
NickPalmer said:
Pretty consistent with the other polls - the Tories are clearly recovering the UKIP froth for now, but Labour's vote is unchanged, as is the LibDem preference for Labour. It's reasonable to guess that the Tory jump includes former UKIP people who are now officially don't know but admit to preferring the Tories.
I think that points towards a pretty fair summary of the situation since the last election (and why I suspect there will be a hung Parliament next time).
Basically, neither the Tories nor Labour have convinced anyone who did not support them at the last election to become committed backers. This is not surprising given that there was such a clear divide (at least in presentation) on macroeconomic issues - the most important topic at the 2010 election.
There have been two basic shifts:
(1) A chunk of the left-leaning LibDems who believe that they were voting for a morally-upright version of Labour has moved to back Ed. This isn't because Ed has positively convinced them of anything, but because they are pissed off with Clegg and they don't consider the Tories.
(2) A chunk of Tories moved to UKIP. This seems to be unwinding for now, driven by better party management, more discipline, fading of the noise over gay marriage and other liberal moves by this government.
I think that the 2015 election will, at its core, be driven by macro considerations again. So it is logical that the core votes for Labour and the Tories will remain the same. That means there are only two factors to play for:
- How many of the UKIP 12% the Tories can win back. If they get them down to 5 (based on Cameron's comment) and win all that share that gets the Tories to 40-41%.
- How many of the LD defectors vote for Labour. Let's say that all of Labour's gains (+8 I think) since 2010 are from this source.
Implications is that Labour's range is 29-37, and the Tories are 34 - 41. My guess is that it will end up with Tories around 35/36 and Labour on 33/34. Seats will dependent on vote distribution.
But the basic conclusion is we are heading for a hung Parliament - but with all to play for
Isn't the most likely reaction that the LD-Lab switchers decide "this confirms my prejudice that the Tories eat babies"? Admittedly this may have a second-order impact of reinforcing their dislike of Clegg for forming a coalition with the baby-eaters, but that doesn't seem that likely to me. However, given that Clegg/Cable have made it pretty clear they don't approve perhaps it will help them differentiate from the Tories among this group?
If anything, given Clegg's opposition could this possibly (a) attract UKIP waverers back to the Tories and (b) persuade some LD-Lab waverers that Clegg isn't that bad after all.
http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/archivepix.html
TSE may like this one in particular: http://apod.nasa.gov/apod/ap130714.html
Labour activists and LDs are all saying 'urgh' but as YouGov showed yesterday - no VI group actually thought they were racist though they may not have personally liked them. And even that was IIRC 47:41 still approving. I personally wasn't keen on them.
Hard to unpick the genuine view and the partisan knee-jerk response out of it.
Is the LD campaign in 2015 really going to be "we love illegal immigrants"?
Is the LD campaign in 2015 really going to be "we love illegal immigrants"?
IIRC - some of the fall out from Cleggasm was more voters becoming aware that the LDs were keen on an amnesty for illegals. That didn't go down terribly well. I'm against amnesties here - we already have enough trouble trying to find the buggers and deport them/and if they've been here for ages and had kids its virtually impossible - it just encourages more of the same like paying off kidnappers.
It reads like the Sun's version of a Tory manifesto. I know its planning to go paywall shortly - is this the last one before they do?
http://t.co/P0zukZYUtZ
Today's YouGov shows 9% of 2010LD going to UKIP and that highest UKIP support comes from North and Midlands/Wales.
The LDs could find themselves (again) on the wrong side of public sympathy by their opposition to the poster - as to the average voter-in-the-street, the removal of illegal immigrants is natural justice.
That the LDs are stuck at 8%-10%VI shows that their public pronouncements are not resonating with the electorate.
Incidentally on legal/illegal immigrants, some 6,000 have been found in Slough living in "sheds" in back gardens. Of course they could be cannabis hot-houses.
"A spy plane equipped with a thermal imaging camera has found that more than 6,000 outbuildings in one town could be 'beds in sheds' converted by rogue landlords.
Slough Borough Council is the first local authority in the country to pay for the specially-adapted aircraft to fly over streets picking up heat from sheds and garages."
It spent £24,000 on flights to build up a precise 3D map of every building in the Berkshire town. The results mean thousands could be living there without planning permission or contributing council tax.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2381451/Slough-spy-plane-detects-6-000-illegal-beds-sheds-thermal-imaging.html#ixzz2abGR3xu9
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
I was going to say where is the Queen.. but there she is hiding out on the S.
Yes paywall in a day or so: Thee are some lovely quotes:
" Both Labour and the Tories have had disastrous failures and major achievements. Even the Lib Dems have their moments.
We just can’t think of any right now."
" This country needs — and deserves — a strong vision for the next decade, backed by strong leadership to see it through.
When evidence of that emerges, we will support it."
" The welfare state was designed to stop people going hungry. It was a noble aim.
But the handouts became so generous and easy to claim that successive generations have grown up to view idling on benefits as a permanent lifestyle choice.
This culture of entitlement exploded under the last Labour Government and MUST end.
It has destroyed entire communities and is bleeding Britain dry.
The cap on benefits brought in by this Government is still way too generous and must be cut.
Our welfare system should be a safety net for those in dire straits. Not a bonanza for scroungers."
" We’re proud of the NHS. At least we are proud of what it could be.
Successive scandals and thousands of needless deaths have exposed a culture that put box-ticking and targets before patient care.
Some “modernisations” have been a disaster. GPs should not run businesses. They should heal the sick. It’s that simple.
David Cameron was WRONG to ring-fence NHS spending three years ago.
It looked good politically but it has held back vital reforms and kept useless pen-pushers in jobs.
As the population gets older, the problems will get worse.
The NHS can no longer be a sacred cow which must remain untouched.
Urgent surgery is required."
Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/5042756/At-dawn-of-Sun-where-The-Sun-stands-on-issues-vital-to-us-readers-and-Britain.html#ixzz2abJOWKUd
Or of course voters who actually want the Euro, greenie stuff, PR et al. They're stuck at about 10-12pts and bob about for 3rd/4th place with Kippers with YGov. Is this the core vote that will rise to say 15pts when a significant election is on the cards?
Liberals my arse....
"David Cameron is being urged to stop EU migrants claiming benefits during their first two years in Britain in a radical move to tighten Brussels labour laws. The option is one of several presented to a government review by a left-wing think-tank. Others include capping the numbers of foreign jobseekers, reserving more jobs for British workers and excluding the poorest EU nations altogether.
...The think-tank Demos will today raise the stakes over the scale of the overhaul needed. Its submission to the Balance of Competencies Review says that the arrival of more than 1.5 million migrants since 2004, was “the biggest peacetime movement in European history.” It has been a “bewildering development” for many Britons, writes its director David Goodhart, who says that the negative aspects have been underestimated.
Rather than seeking a UK opt-out, Mr Cameron should make common cause with politicians in countries such as the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Sweden to offer more protection for native workers, he argues." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article3830055.ece
http://www.libdemvoice.org/david-ward-35511.html
She might still vote Lib Dem if our local candidate is good, but she is also turned off by Labour. If she was to vote Conservative, then it would be a first for her, but she is considering it (although our MP is Lansley).
Perhaps the Liberal Democrats should drop the 'liberal' part of their name ...
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/362449118603403264/photo/1
Big chunk of lefties protestors available,lots of leftish policies, party unsullied by power so ideal for purists, established home for protest voters. UKIP have picked up more dissatisfied LDs than the Greens . Have the Greens just thrown in the towel or is something else at play ?
“The price the EU pays in terms of unpopularity and mistrust is too high for the relatively modest economic gains associated with unqualified free movement.”
As well as a two-year limit on benefits it says that Mr Cameron should press for the right to reserve apprenticeships for British youngsters and restrict employment boosting tax-breaks for those that take on native workers. Most controversially, EU countries should be prevented from joining the free labour market until their GDPs are at least 75 per cent of the average, to prevent them exporting unemployment, it suggests.
The case for reform is further underlined by two research reports published last week for the Migration Advisory Committee, the Home Office body currently studying the impact of foreign workers on Britain’s labour market. Although numbers have slowed from a peak in 2008, the gulf in education between migrant and native jobseekers is growing. “Migrants who have been in the UK for less than five years are on average nine years younger than natives, more than twice as likely to be educated to degree level and more likely to be female,” a paper by Frontier Economics published last week sates.
The qualification gap was “particularly stark” in lower-paid sectors.
1. Overt and dog whistle immigration policy - Reverse Ukip rise.
2. 2017 EU referendum - Reverse Ukip rise
3. Limit Labour NHS lead.
4. Social reforms including gay marriage.
5. Keep right wing media on side over Leverson.
6. Be nice to the LibDems - He'll likely need them again.
7. Depress Labour turnout. The two Ed's back in charge.
8. Drive differential turnout of potential pro-government voters up - PM Ed !!
And biggest of all :
The improving economy in all its guises.
Spot on as ever Edmund
This is so bloody obvious and we will be proved right on May 7th 2015
That Labour are the only one of the Big Three in Oppo and are on a pitiful mid-single digit lead with YouGov or even worse with ICM and ComRes is stunning.
That many in Labour and Leftish LDs are so complacent about it - even more so.
We are at the supposed high-point for mid-term blues and yet HMG are generally doing rather well as all the pollsters are showing.
I'm greatly heartened that cross-over appears to be coming much sooner than I hoped for. With 22 months to go, Labour need to pull their finger out, 35% strategy or not.
It is so obviously posturing that even those who are not interested in politics can see it. Ask your 'control groups'.
I want immigration tackled as I think its harming the low skilled homegrown here, but I don't want to be out of the EU - I want to see it reformed. And its control over us reduced significantly.
That a large % of our population is Eurosceptic strengthens our hand in the negotiations, as does the attempt by the Tories to get a ref bill on the books.
By getting people talking - its also shown that no one group of voters thinks its racist nor that it was a terrible thing to do on balance. The gap between what gets some all upset and the rest of the population is confirmed yet again.
Would this really be a vote-deciding matter?
And why are [some] people irked that illegal immigrants are being asked to leave?
I spent many evenings in the Balcombe Social Club - and lost a lot of games of bar billiards. It was a genuine club/need to be signed in where the locals looked at you through narrowed eyes until you'd been several dozen times and even then, you weren't one-of-us.
'Vote UKIP---get more of what you want'
This is an example to all political parties of how to write a manifesto and even an election pamphlet.
It is concise, it uses simple English that all can understand, it contains humour and it is written in a positive manner and a way that can appeal to the reader.
Above all it is unambiguous and not hedged with caveats - like we would like to do this but the ECHR/EU/Coalition Part/Judges etc wont let us.
However, having a dispute with the Lib Dems over immigration might help to convince these voters that the Lib Dems are not merely Tory poodles, and so win some of these voters back to the Lib Dems away from Labour - and that would help the Tories providing it happens in the right seats.
It is the differentiation strategy that Edmund in Tokyo has been going on about for some time.
It's just how people behave.
Its like voting SNP, even if you'd vote to stay in the Union. It improves the deals available.
On that test this poster campaign fails dismally, since it looks amateurish and fairly silly.
Writing top quality tabloidese is a real art and very hard to do. Saying something compelling, entertaining and with a punch in 100 words rather than 500 words is a greatly under appreciated talent.
recent polling would tend to suggest otherwise. I'd suggest the biggest problem now facing UKIP is Dave has stopped the war with his own party for the time being at least.
The Fifty Shades of Grey series of erotic novels are the favorite reading material among former CIA captives being held at the notorious Guantanamo detention camp, it has emerged.
U.S. congressman Jim Moran made the revelation after touring Camp 7, the top-security facility that holds more than a dozen 'high-value' prisoners.
The Democratic Representative of Virginia said the bestselling book by British author E. L. James was the most requested book - even beating the Koran. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2381429/Fifty-Shades-Grey--Koran--requested-book-Guantanamo-Bay.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
They argue for strong leadership and vision. As if anyone would disagree.
They say the NHS should not be untouchable and at the same time attack modernisation. Arguably it has been touched rather a lot.
Some 20 or 30 years ago the Sun published a collection of its front covers. I took a couple into a Daily Mirror pub and the Mirror hacks were all over them.
It always used to be said that the best exemplar of concise summarising was the non-financial news in the Financial Times.
Issues affecting Country (me/my family)
Economy: 74 (61)
Immigration: 33 (9)
So how far ahead is Labour on the Economy, given that 32% of 2010 Lib Dems say they are now going to vote for them?
Which party could handle better - Lab vs Con:
The economy: +4
Immigration: -4
Compared with Lab's lead among 2010 Lib Dems on other areas that's very close:
Law & Order: -11
Education: +11
Tax: +14
Unemployment: +23
Europe: +4
There's a phrase I'm trying to recall......
You may say so but I doubt if the average Sun reader would agree with you.
The Sun are very good at knowing their readership, what they want and what they will accept (and that includes Page3).
Con: 12
Lab: 32
Lib Dem: 39
UKIP: 9
Green: 3
SNP/PC: 2
1. 2013 - shore up the Tory vote. Get the frothy UKIP defectors back.
2. 2014 - undermine Labour. Attack Miliband and claim Labour not ready for government. Claim huge credit for any economic improvements.
3. 2015 - go centrist, claim to be government for all the people. Win.
The Labour strategy is broadly:
1. 2013 - rubbish the Government. Not that they're evil, just that they're useless. Solidify the left LD vote. Avoid commitments.
2. 2014 - make carefully-funded populist policy commitments to win some centrist ex-Tories and floating voters. Win the spring conference and build image of steady determination. Attack falling living standards.
3. 2015 - go centrist, claim to be government-in-waiting for all the people. Win.
Both 2013 strategies are working fairly well. In particular, as Mike notes, the Tory strategy is both recovering the UKIP vote and reinforcing the ex-LD Labour vote. Because the UKIP defections were larger and frothier, that effect is larger so the overall lead is narrowing. Strategically, though, the Tory problem is harder - they've had to move right for stage 1, and a lot of centre-left voters now won't give them a hearing at all. Yet if the centre-left bloc isn't eroded, Labour wins.
Save Ed!
As mission statements go - its very comprehensive and very clear.
I also agree that the Conservatives are in a peculiar position. Those on the right of the right and/or who are rightwing and feel let down can go to UKIP (may return to the blues if they're more anti-Labour than pro-UKIP come the GE), right-friendly lefties could go for Clegg's Lib Dems and lefty lefties would never vote Conservative anyway.
The Coalition has made things weird for all the parties, to a greater or lesser extent.
Cameron's Grazia interview. Shapps pre-election speech. Even Osborne's father-in-law is on front pages. Where is Labour? http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/shappss-trinity-of-labour-weaknesses/
1. 2013 - rubbish the Government. Not that they're evil, just that they're useless. Solidify the left LD vote. Avoid commitments.
2. 2014 - make carefully-funded populist policy commitments to win some centrist ex-Tories and floating voters. Win the spring conference and build image of steady determination. Attack falling living standards.
3.... Win.
4. Wake up and discover this didn't happen because the public don't like Ed Balls and think EdM is weak.
So in afternoon we can agree on who is already renewing his Bruxelles office contracts, who has a chance and who can book an holiday for summer 2014.
"There are also attacks on what the Tories believe to be the trinity of Labour weaknesses: the economy, welfare and immigration. Shapps argues that Labour’s spending plans would lead to higher mortgage rates.
He claims that Labour would make claiming benefits a human rights, a reference to this story, and that this could lead to ‘prisoners – serving a life sentence at Her Majesty’s Pleasure to be entitled to housing benefit’; a claim that is certain to infuriate Labour. He also argues that under Labour, immigration would start going up again."
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/07/shappss-trinity-of-labour-weaknesses/
THE GOOD NEWS KEEPS ON COMING
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-economy-close-escape-velocity-115822178.html
Con 9
Lab 24
LD 30
UKIP 7
Others 4
DK/WV 26
Issues Facing Country - Health:
OA: 41 (+10)
Con: 35 (+12)
Lab: 50 (+10)
LibD: 49 (+21)
UKIP: 24 (+3)
by my count, 24 Labour Southwark Cllrs out of 35 will stand again in 2014. That's 68%
In Hackney it's 31 out of 49 (63%), in Greenwich 27 out of 39 (69%), in Brent 29 out of 41 (70%), in Newham 41 out of 60 (70%).
However the 15-25 miles comment is a bit misleading. As I understand it, the current controversy is over a drill site in a village, presumably to check underlying conditions. No fracking will be taking place.
But given steerable drills (they can drill long distances horizontally as well as vertically), and the threat of more sites, I can see why they'd want to nip it in the bud early before it gets to their home areas.
Oh, and if you want really despicable Green nuttery:
https://earthfirst.org.uk/actionreports/content/sabotage-nuclear-train-france
Incredible.
Your point of "win the Spring Conference" contains massive assumptions and uncertainties.
How certain is it that McCluskey will toe the line, accept opt-in and continue to fund Labour. Does Labour have a Plan B for financial security - and the race to the bottom or public funding is not the answer.
If McCluskey storms out in a huff, what is the likelihood that he will: join SWP, set up a TU party or something else?
Also, like all the front benches, the general public view EDM and his front bench as out-of-touch and live in a world that is so detached (in manner as well as experience) from their problems that they do not comprehend. Will this lead to more NOTA in 2015 after a rise in turnout in 2010?
The Alexander the Great Route:
1) Hone your skills whilst a teenager.
2) Kill and replace the previous leader.
3) Inspire your men by fighting in the frontline alongside them.
4) Enable your lieutenants to exercise a degree of autonomy (Parmenio, Craterus etc). Remember to kill them if you suspect they might be thinking of enacting step 2) themselves.
5) Recognise the weakness in the enemy. Trust your lieutenants to hold the line whilst you hammer the weakness and target the enemy leader directly. Kill him or force him to flee.
Actually, I started writing this in a silly way, but strong lieutenants (like a strong secondary cast in a book) is actually very important. Despite the historical problems with describing a man's loyal friends as a Praetorian Guard there is no equivalent unit for Miliband. Is there even an equivalent individual?
Cameroons are thin on the ground, but Osborne, Gove and perhaps Hague spring to mind.
Alexander had a large number, including top class generals like Craterus and Parmenio. Whilst the Great man deserves his credit, he would not have had the freedom to leave behind certain cities and forge ahead without reliable, skilled and intelligent men to maintain siegeworks and take them by storm, if possible.
I think 5) is a point that the Conservatives foolishly slackened on against Brown (at the height of his unpopularity) and perhaps Miliband likewise. The best time to kick a man is when he's down.
And why shouldn't that swingback accelerate if the economy (by far the greatest determinant of voting behaviour) continue to improve over the next 18 months?
Health
OA: 38 (+3)
Con: 38 (+5)
Lab: 41 (+1)
LibD: 32 (-2)
UKIP: 38 (+7)
So UKIP voters worry about it on behalf of themselves, but not the country.....
and on the same basis for last night's Comres Poll
2010 LD voters now in %
Con 7
Lab 20
LD 35
UKIP 3
Others 5
Refused/DK 30
My impression is that the number of LD to Lab switchers is slowly declining and moving to DK but more analysis is needed and I haven't got the time to do it now .
The Canary Wharf welfare queens need to be cut loose. An FTT needs to be introduced pronto and the whole sector shrunk.