politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov in

Excellent observations by Messrs Wells, O'Hara and Smithson

By staging a referendum on UK’s EU membership, David Cameron has chosen to ‘play with fire’ and may find he is entirely dependent on the decisions of Labour voters to avoid finding himself badly burnt, a leading poll analyst has concluded.

John Curtice reached the conclusion in a new study underlining the risks both Labour and the Conservatives face in the coming months.

Writing for Juncture, the journal of the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, Curtice said that on the basis of an average of 20 Britain-wide polls, advocates of the UK remaining in the EU are leading by 53 % to 47%, excluding don’t knows. Two polls conducted by phone show the stay-in camp much further ahead.

Curtice, who masterminded the successful 2015 general election exit poll, also finds that, on average, the most recent polls found that just 38% of Conservative voters say they will vote to stay in, while 49% say they are inclined to vote to leave.

http://bit.ly/1XWVUUp

TheScreamingEagles said:

By staging a referendum on UK’s EU membership, David Cameron has chosen to ‘play with fire’ and may find he is entirely dependent on the decisions of Labour voters to avoid finding himself badly burnt, a leading poll analyst has concluded.

John Curtice reached the conclusion in a new study underlining the risks both Labour and the Conservatives face in the coming months.

Writing for Juncture, the journal of the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, Curtice said that on the basis of an average of 20 Britain-wide polls, advocates of the UK remaining in the EU are leading by 53 % to 47%, excluding don’t knows. Two polls conducted by phone show the stay-in camp much further ahead.

http://bit.ly/1XWVUUp

That sounds a bit daft to me.

The outcome of anything where the voters vote is going to be dependent on voters of the 'other' sides as well as those who think like oneself.

Democracy, is it called?

@KatyTurNBC: BREAKING: Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States https://t.co/FJxRSrVE92

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

Ugh, I cannot stand people who are overly politically engaged ruining things, it makes me sick.

Any idea what by-elections are coming up this week, and how many days until that AV thread?

Thirteen days to go.

Damn, I may not be able to get on the internet that day! Oh, fate is cruel.

Scott_P said:

@KatyTurNBC: BREAKING: Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States https://t.co/FJxRSrVE92

Boy, given where his statements started, it is impressive he can still keep topping himself.

Woozers how did that Panorama programme get past the BBC lawyers? The presenter has just ended the programme with "I told you [Blatter] was a crook". No alleged or anything, just straight out.

Other thing from the programme, above and beyond obvious finger pointing of corruption throughout FIFA, is the next wave could be big problems for sponsors. Nike had a massive finger pointed at them.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Woozers how did that Panorama programme get past the BBC lawyers? The presenter has just ended the programme with "I told you [Blatter] was a crook". No alleged or anything, just straight out.

Other thing from the programme, above and beyond obvious finger pointing of corruption throughout FIFA, is the next wave could be big problems for sponsors. Nike had a massive finger pointed at them.

Not seen the show, but did they mention Nike's contract with the Brazilian federation?

Pentagon confirms US airstrikes killed head of ISIS in Libya and senior al-Shabaab leader

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3349842/Pentagon-confirms-airstrikes-killed-head-ISIS-Libya-senior-al-Shabaab-leader-Somalia.html

I will be voting to Leave, whatever happens with the negotiations. The EU is in a very fundamental Way something I oppose, it is the embodiment of Big Government, removed from the People, passing roles down from on high, each new regulation and in its own way removes a bit of personal freedom and distorters market, and takes us away form the being a free society, open to volunteer free trade with anybody that wants to. As a general role Big country's are more incline to have bigger governments, where it is easer for special interests to lobby the government for special protection or subsidies, at the expense of everybody else, because the everybody else is so big and spared out they do not notice. It is no coincidence that the freest society's and freest markets tend to be in small contrary's e.g. Iceland and New Zealand.

That sead if we are to stay in, and much as I would want it to be otherwise, I suspect Remain will win the referendum regardless, in which case then whatever can be gained out of theses negotiations the better, even if it is small.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MartinOMalley: .@realdonaldtrump removes all doubt: he is running for President as a fascist demagogue.

If "The Donald" was just some bloke on twitter, you would be convinced he was the right wing equivalent of that Comarde Grintz guy who took the media for a ride the other day.

Indeed, I've been told that in 1932 Adolf Hitler called for a total and complete shutdown of Jews entering Germany

FPT
flightpath01 said:

'baby led tweeting'



Why stop there?.....Perhaps pregnant mothers should be given the right to vote by proxy for those that "we're unable" to attend the polling station in person?

Pulpstar said:

The GOP race is the greatest game of right wing top trumps on earth.

What the pack name of this set of Top Trumps? Racists, loons, nutjobs and morons?

MP_SE said:

Pulpstar said:

"The Donald" has said point blank he's going to loot all the oil in the middle east too. Not even a hint of trying to hide it.

I accidently tuned in to one of his speeches where he said he would steal the oil to give to the families of those who died out there.

He was mildly amusing to begin with but is clearly bonkers. Some have claimed he is doing it for the publicity but he is coming across as someone quite nasty.

It was when he tweeted that inaccurate/racist deaths by African-American graphic I realised he wasn't a joke, but something vile and nasty

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

MarkHopkins said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

I always thought Waitrose would be the Green store, being all posh, though I've never been in one.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I guess that makes @isam a pb Tory.

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

I always thought Waitrose would be the Green store, being all posh, though I've never been in one.

Waitrose, also Lib Dem..Definitely.

tlg86 said:

This bit was interesting:

"Breaking down 2010 Liberal Democrat voters by how much attention they pay to politics though shows a fascinating split: 2010 Lib Dem voters who paid a lot of attention to politics were more likely to switch to Labour; people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but who paid little attention to politics were more likely to split to the Conservatives. If polling samples had people who were too politically engaged, then we’d have too many LD=>Lab people and too few LD=>Con people."

That rings true. We heard a lot from the Red Liberals in 2010-15 because they were really interested and really angry. We didn't hear much from the "oh, I'll take a safe centre party, I suppose" LibDems, because they were busy with other interests. Come the election, a lot of them drifted to the Tories, perceiving them as a safe centre(ish) party.

@AgentP22: "Please Please Tell Me Now, Is There Something I Should Know?"

I think Simon knows now. https://t.co/mgt8f6e513

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are Leave.EU a front for Remain? Honestly this looks like a Fast Show spoof

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mqsb5cLniI

Mr. Cholmondley-Warner's guide to the EU....Women know your place...

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

I always thought Waitrose would be the Green store, being all posh, though I've never been in one.

Waitrose, also Lib Dem..Definitely.

Waitrose is the Tory party, shopping. Or at least it is in Wales. The LDs are all down the Co-op.

John_M said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

I always thought Waitrose would be the Green store, being all posh, though I've never been in one.

Waitrose, also Lib Dem..Definitely.

Waitrose is the Tory party, shopping. Or at least it is in Wales. The LDs are all down the Co-op.

All the academic types I associate with can't get enough of Waitrose, and they most certainly don't vote Tory. John Lewis / Waitrose / Ocada appears to many of them their religion of choice, in their ratified bubbly world where Waitrose prices aren't an issue.

I would have thought a good old traditional Tory voter would be repulsed by the high prices and instead down Aldi or Lidl showing how the private sector can provide excellent "value for money".

TheScreamingEagles said:

My favourite supermarket is Sainsburys.

Keeps the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose.

That was an Alan Coren gag?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Are Leave.EU a front for Remain? Honestly this looks like a Fast Show spoof

What a mess. No way near as funny as this one put out by Arron Banks:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYsW8WID1kU

Starring David Cameron as Tony Blair and Nick Clegg as the Yes Man.

Absolute rubbish.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@MartinOMalley: .@realdonaldtrump removes all doubt: he is running for President as a fascist demagogue.

FrancisUrquhart said:

John_M said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

MarkHopkins said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Here is my one-step plan for increasing poll response rates.

1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.

That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.

If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.

" supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts"

But you would get...

Tesco - Labour

Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green

Waitrose - Tory

Lidl - Do not vote

I always thought Waitrose would be the Green store, being all posh, though I've never been in one.

Waitrose, also Lib Dem..Definitely.

Waitrose is the Tory party, shopping. Or at least it is in Wales. The LDs are all down the Co-op.

All the academic types I associate with can't get enough of Waitrose, and they most certainly don't vote Tory. John Lewis / Waitrose / Ocada appears to many of them their religion of choice, in their ratified bubbly world where Waitrose prices aren't an issue.

I would have thought a good old traditional Tory voter would be repulsed by the high prices and instead down Aldi or Lidl showing how the private sector can provide excellent "value for money".

They are round here - the nearest Aldi has a car park and its is mostly full of four by fours, beamers, mercs and other motors of the monied middle classes. In my local town we have a Lidl and a Waitrose, neither with a dedicated car park, but I see the same faces in both, doing as I do, buying where the value is.

As for Waitrose prices: provided one is not stupid they are comparable to Tesco and Sainsbury (e.g. a roast chicken for my cat is about a fiver in any of the three), but it is a nicer shop.

Chris Christie on Trump statement: " that’s a ridiculous position and one that won’t even be productive."

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My favourite supermarket is Sainsburys.

Keeps the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose.

That was an Alan Coren gag?

Don't know. I saw it on twitter years ago, and it summed up my feelings perfectly.

PS - You're a git, I spent most of this morning thinking about Corbyn tea-bagging Diane Abbott thanks to you.

My therapist's bill is in the post to you

Crikey, a therapist bill for a lawyer ain't gonna be cheap!
Edit. Alan Coren used that gag on the News Quiz some years ago. He may have nabbed it from somewhere else tbf.

Would explain this picture

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My favourite supermarket is Sainsburys.

Keeps the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose.

That was an Alan Coren gag?

Don't know. I saw it on twitter years ago, and it summed up my feelings perfectly.

PS - You're a git, I spent most of this morning thinking about Corbyn tea-bagging Diane Abbott thanks to you.

My therapist's bill is in the post to you

Crikey, a therapist bill for a lawyer ain't gonna be cheap!
Edit. Alan Coren used that gag on the News Quiz some years ago. He may have nabbed it from somewhere else tbf.

Would explain this picture

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg

Reminds me of this...

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/567655461676396545/3Et_MNG-.jpeg

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I do believe I called "Schizophrenic" on Saturday night

I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"

It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...

It's nonsense to blame puffing for making him do it.
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.

Most drug users don't of course. However the modern strands of cannabis have a much, much higher content of the active ingredient than the "organic" (for want of a better word) stuff of the past. The evidence of cannabis induced psychosis is now I think pretty unassailable and so is the rate of increase of the number of people suffering from the same.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I do believe I called "Schizophrenic" on Saturday night

I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"

It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...

It's nonsense to blame puffing for making him do it.
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.

puff in the late 80s and early 90s was like shandy bass compared to the terps they smoke now

The list of recent terrorist acts made by heavy cannabis smokers is quite an eye opener

Now, that I've poked the hornets' nest, goodnight.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

My favourite supermarket is Sainsburys.

Keeps the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose.

That was an Alan Coren gag?

Don't know. I saw it on twitter years ago, and it summed up my feelings perfectly.

PS - You're a git, I spent most of this morning thinking about Corbyn tea-bagging Diane Abbott thanks to you.

My therapist's bill is in the post to you

Crikey, a therapist bill for a lawyer ain't gonna be cheap!
Edit. Alan Coren used that gag on the News Quiz some years ago. He may have nabbed it from somewhere else tbf.

Would explain this picture

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg

Nah......
that's the pic where He's pushing a Thomas the tank engine train and just going "toot toot. "

(I could suggest that as an "here comes the choo choo" situation ..... but as you are already under counselling I won't mention it)

OchEye said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Woozers how did that Panorama programme get past the BBC lawyers? The presenter has just ended the programme with "I told you [Blatter] was a crook". No alleged or anything, just straight out.

Other thing from the programme, above and beyond obvious finger pointing of corruption throughout FIFA, is the next wave could be big problems for sponsors. Nike had a massive finger pointed at them.

Having watched a lot of it, and the end, there is not a lot Blatter can do. That TV contract signed by both Blatter and Warner giving away the rights to the World Cup below the prices charged for previous ones is the equivalent of signing your own death warrant, especially as Warner made such a large profit selling on the rights.

What will Blatter do? Sue the BBC? I have the feeling that the BBC would be quite happy if he tried, it looked as if there was a good bit more waiting for a chance to be aired and they were dangling the bait in front of him.

Well no. But given the trouble the BBC has had over the past 2-3 years and reputation, they are normally very very cautious about allowing such direct statements to be made e.g They often let others say for them.

The program annoyed me a little bit. The "jokey" style and a lot of rehashes of old programmes, when the subject matter is extremely serious i.e. worldwide racketeering and clearly they have loads more in the filing cabinet.

The presenter flying around the world to be predictably told he wasn't welcome at somebodies home. I would have much preferred time spent explaining more about how the alleged scheme worked and also more about the latest info e.g. this Nike contract.

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Now, that I've poked the hornets' nest, goodnight.

The very definition of a coward.

I'm staying up for a bit now. Got a guest piece to upload and format.

SandyRentool said:

So if you want to be on the electoral register you have to sign up for the YouGov panel. Problem solved.

What next from Trump - convert or be interned?

The race for the nomination is to the one who provokes more and gets more attention, that's how Trump is leading, that is what Carson did to lead, and that is what Cruz is also doing to catch up.

Don't forget the average republican voter is a fat guy in the countryside (who urgently needs a diet), watching TV (preferably Fox News) with a pitchfork (a machine gun probably).

This is what Trump does best and he loves it:

http://i.imgur.com/pkGuP8k.gif

isam said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I do believe I called "Schizophrenic" on Saturday night

I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"

It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...

It's nonsense to blame puffing for making him do it.
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.

puff in the late 80s and early 90s was like shandy bass compared to the terps they smoke now

The list of recent terrorist acts made by heavy cannabis smokers is quite an eye opener

I stopped puffing 2 years ago (and still have the odd one now), am well aware of how strong the current strains are.

HurstLlama said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I do believe I called "Schizophrenic" on Saturday night

I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"

It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...

It's nonsense to blame puffing for making him do it.
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.

Most drug users don't of course. However the modern strands of cannabis have a much, much higher content of the active ingredient than the "organic" (for want of a better word) stuff of the past. The evidence of cannabis induced psychosis is now I think pretty unassailable and so is the rate of increase of the number of people suffering from the same.

HL, I know a number of growers and a large number of users, we really are getting into the 'the booze made me beat my wife up' territory.
The individual is absolutely at fault for what he done. No excuses.

What do you think about the fact that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have refused to take a single refugee from the Middle East?

EPG said:

Muslims fleeing ISIS in the millions because ISIS wants to kill them
Some Westerners say: Let's repeat our behaviour to refugees in the Holocaust, because that was great

AndyJS said:

What do you think about the fact that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have refused to take a single refugee from the Middle East?

EPG said:

Muslims fleeing ISIS in the millions because ISIS wants to kill them
Some Westerners say: Let's repeat our behaviour to refugees in the Holocaust, because that was great

This:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/

According to that, Muslim countries are the world most racist and intolerant countries in the world, after caste-based India of course.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

HurstLlama said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Family of Tube terror accused called in police three weeks before Leytonstone attack

The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html

I do believe I called "Schizophrenic" on Saturday night

I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"

It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...

It's nonsense to blame puffing for making him do it.
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.

Most drug users don't of course. However the modern strands of cannabis have a much, much higher content of the active ingredient than the "organic" (for want of a better word) stuff of the past. The evidence of cannabis induced psychosis is now I think pretty unassailable and so is the rate of increase of the number of people suffering from the same.

HL, I know a number of growers and a large number of users, we really are getting into the 'the booze made me beat my wife up' territory.
The individual is absolutely at fault for what he done. No excuses.

I bow to your superior knowledge and of course I agree that the individual is responsible for his/her own actions in accordance with the law. However, I do think you might look at the incidence of psychosis linked to cannabis use, the picture is not at all rosy.

I've always wondered precisely what a Flat White is. Now Newsnight is telling me, so thanks to them.

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

What do you think about the fact that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have refused to take a single refugee from the Middle East?

EPG said:

Muslims fleeing ISIS in the millions because ISIS wants to kill them
Some Westerners say: Let's repeat our behaviour to refugees in the Holocaust, because that was great

This:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/

According to that, Muslim countries are the world most racist and intolerant countries in the world, after caste-based India of course.

If you are ranking racist countries don't forget to look at China and Japan - they will give even the worst of the Arabs a run for the title.

BigRich said:

When will the day come when my taxes are not wasted on putting people in prison for doing no different than the Brewers who make my bear that I so much enjoy and are grateful for!

presumably your taxes will be wasted on treating the cancers and other health problems related to smoking instead

2016 Poll Alert.
New CNN/ORC IOWA poll, Trump at all time high:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/poll-results-ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa/index.html

Trump 33 /+8
Cruz 20 /+9
Carson 16 /-7
Rubio 11 /-2
Bush 4 /-1
Paul 3 /+1
Fiorina 3 /-1
Christie 2 /-1
Huckabee 2 /0

Others less than 2 (who cares).

Kasich 1 /-1
Santorum 1 /+1

I told you the average republican voter likes the Trump stuff.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: I'm a bit sceptical (but then, I'm a scientist so I'm sceptical by training).

My scepticism on this occasion is as follows. OK, we have a hypothesis: the problem was largely one of differential respondent behaviour by age. It's a good hypothesis, but it still needs to be tested. And surely the very first test you would apply is to look back at 2010 and 2005. What didn't this problem show up then?

That. But also the premise of all statistical inference is that you have a random sample from the relevant population (i.e. people eligible to vote). That is what lies behind "margin of error" calculations. YouGov's selected samples simply don't conform to that desideratum.