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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In a 140 charcacter tweet Glen O’Hara sums up the YouGov investigation into its GE2015 polling fail
The big polling news tonight has been the publication of YouGov’s own inquiry into what went wrong. There’s a good summary by the firm’s Anthony Wells on his blog UK Polling report here.
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Any idea what by-elections are coming up this week, and how many days until that AV thread?
John Curtice reached the conclusion in a new study underlining the risks both Labour and the Conservatives face in the coming months.
Writing for Juncture, the journal of the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, Curtice said that on the basis of an average of 20 Britain-wide polls, advocates of the UK remaining in the EU are leading by 53 % to 47%, excluding don’t knows. Two polls conducted by phone show the stay-in camp much further ahead.
Curtice, who masterminded the successful 2015 general election exit poll, also finds that, on average, the most recent polls found that just 38% of Conservative voters say they will vote to stay in, while 49% say they are inclined to vote to leave.
http://bit.ly/1XWVUUp
The outcome of anything where the voters vote is going to be dependent on voters of the 'other' sides as well as those who think like oneself.
Democracy, is it called?
"Breaking down 2010 Liberal Democrat voters by how much attention they pay to politics though shows a fascinating split: 2010 Lib Dem voters who paid a lot of attention to politics were more likely to switch to Labour; people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but who paid little attention to politics were more likely to split to the Conservatives. If polling samples had people who were too politically engaged, then we’d have too many LD=>Lab people and too few LD=>Con people."
But what I want to hear from the polling companies - and I don't know if YouGov fall into this bracket - is some admittance that their perceptions of what the result should be was part of the problem.
What about the poll that was pretty much spot on, but was suppressed as it wasn't believed?
No amount of logic will make up for humans putting in bias about what they think is right.
Even if the polls were perfect (aside from MOE), such a policy is bonkers.
Other thing from the programme, above and beyond obvious finger pointing of corruption throughout FIFA, is the next wave could be big problems for sponsors. Nike had a massive finger pointed at them.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3349842/Pentagon-confirms-airstrikes-killed-head-ISIS-Libya-senior-al-Shabaab-leader-Somalia.html
That sead if we are to stay in, and much as I would want it to be otherwise, I suspect Remain will win the referendum regardless, in which case then whatever can be gained out of theses negotiations the better, even if it is small.
flightpath01 said:
'baby led tweeting'
Why stop there?.....Perhaps pregnant mothers should be given the right to vote by proxy for those that "we're unable" to attend the polling station in person?
He was mildly amusing to begin with but is clearly bonkers. Some have claimed he is doing it for the publicity but he is coming across as someone quite nasty.
1) Don't ask so many bloody questions.
That's it. If you want to ask people how they'll vote, ask that and nothing else. Certainly not an hour's worth of what do you think about policies X, Y and Z to which no normal human being will have given a moment's consideration. That's what puts people off.
If one of the big supermarket chains put a one-question polling device at their checkouts next election, they'd get a massive sample which would probably predict the winners better than most pollsters.
Often wondered though what would happen if you said yes. Never chanced it to find out
But you would get...
Tesco - Labour
Sainsbury - Lib Dem or Green
Waitrose - Tory
Lidl - Do not vote
The family is understood to have told officers they wanted Mire committed under the Mental Health Act.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/12036774/Leytonstone-Tube-attack-Muhaydin-Mire-appears-in-court.html
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/dec/07/did-you-solve-it-guardian-readers-are-less-smart-that-german-10-year-olds-official
Snigger snigger...
I will fess up, it was a slightly racist profiling technique, but big black man with machete to me says "Cannabis psychosis" rather than "World domination"
It is a view shared by a pretty prominent UKIP politician too...
*gets coat*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5mqsb5cLniI
I think Simon knows now. https://t.co/mgt8f6e513
Alas, I am begining to think that even that may not work.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=YTD5_FwdiBU
I would have thought a good old traditional Tory voter would be repulsed by the high prices and instead down Aldi or Lidl showing how the private sector can provide excellent "value for money".
Keeps the riff-raff out of my local Waitrose.
"Breaking down 2010 Liberal Democrat voters by how much attention they pay to politics though shows a fascinating split: 2010 Lib Dem voters who paid a lot of attention to politics were more likely to switch to Labour; people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 but who paid little attention to politics were more likely to split to the Conservatives. If polling samples had people who were too politically engaged, then we’d have too many LD=>Lab people and too few LD=>Con people."
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9558
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYsW8WID1kU
Starring David Cameron as Tony Blair and Nick Clegg as the Yes Man.
PS - You're a git, I spent most of this morning thinking about Corbyn tea-bagging Diane Abbott thanks to you.
My therapist's bill is in the post to you
@AriFleischer: Trump's statement calling for a total ban on all Muslims entering the US is nuts. I'd like to see Trump tell that to Muhammad Ali
Declare an interest: I was a very heavy dope smoker for the best part of 20 years.
To the best of my knowledge, I've never stabbed anyone.
As for Waitrose prices: provided one is not stupid they are comparable to Tesco and Sainsbury (e.g. a roast chicken for my cat is about a fiver in any of the three), but it is a nicer shop.
Edit. Alan Coren used that gag on the News Quiz some years ago. He may have nabbed it from somewhere else tbf.
Now $40.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f2fd24e-5d29-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#axzz3tdIvRF2Z
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUwXWm8XIAAZX28.jpg
What will Blatter do? Sue the BBC? I have the feeling that the BBC would be quite happy if he tried, it looked as if there was a good bit more waiting for a chance to be aired and they were dangling the bait in front of him.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/567655461676396545/3Et_MNG-.jpeg
Jeremy Corbyn as Sid James
Diane Abbott as Barbara Windsor
But what to expect from a Bush administration guy is not intelligence.
The list of recent terrorist acts made by heavy cannabis smokers is quite an eye opener
What next from Trump - convert or be interned?
that's the pic where He's pushing a Thomas the tank engine train and just going "toot toot. "
(I could suggest that as an "here comes the choo choo" situation ..... but as you are already under counselling I won't mention it)
One example might be Trump.
The program annoyed me a little bit. The "jokey" style and a lot of rehashes of old programmes, when the subject matter is extremely serious i.e. worldwide racketeering and clearly they have loads more in the filing cabinet.
The presenter flying around the world to be predictably told he wasn't welcome at somebodies home. I would have much preferred time spent explaining more about how the alleged scheme worked and also more about the latest info e.g. this Nike contract.
Some people are just more vulnerable to it than otherrs
Don't forget the average republican voter is a fat guy in the countryside (who urgently needs a diet), watching TV (preferably Fox News) with a pitchfork (a machine gun probably).
This is what Trump does best and he loves it:
http://i.imgur.com/pkGuP8k.gif
Some Westerners say: Let's repeat our behaviour to refugees in the Holocaust, because that was great
My scepticism on this occasion is as follows. OK, we have a hypothesis: the problem was largely one of differential respondent behaviour by age. It's a good hypothesis, but it still needs to be tested. And surely the very first test you would apply is to look back at 2010 and 2005. What didn't this problem show up then?
The individual is absolutely at fault for what he done. No excuses.
On election night, I was the first to say the pollsters got turnout wrong and that was the main reason why they got the result wrong.
Here is the first example, Eastleigh by-election, Survation predicted at least a 61.4% turnout based on 10/10 responses, the result was 52.8% turnout.
So Long as it is illegal, there is good incentive for the stronger variety's, classic market forces will encourage stronger variety's that are therefore also smaller and easier to hide, both when still a plant and when prepared for smocking. Indeed the rise of 'Skunk' was very much a case of market forces, trying to concentrate so much that it could be smuggled easily.
Where it has been legalised e.g. Colorado, the trend, anecdotally at least, seems to be that milder variety's are gaining in popularity.
When will the day come when my taxes are not wasted on putting people in prison for doing no different than the Brewers who make my bear that I so much enjoy and are grateful for!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/05/15/a-fascinating-map-of-the-worlds-most-and-least-racially-tolerant-countries/
According to that, Muslim countries are the world most racist and intolerant countries in the world, after caste-based India of course.
It must have been the same during the prohibition era in the US. Better to smuggle brandy than beer.
But the point of my post was that if someone does something bad while under the influence. It is the individual that bears the responsibility.
Booze or dope may have lowered the inhibitions, but it doesn't excuse their actions.
New CNN/ORC IOWA poll, Trump at all time high:
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/12/07/politics/poll-results-ted-cruz-donald-trump-iowa/index.html
Trump 33 /+8
Cruz 20 /+9
Carson 16 /-7
Rubio 11 /-2
Bush 4 /-1
Paul 3 /+1
Fiorina 3 /-1
Christie 2 /-1
Huckabee 2 /0
Others less than 2 (who cares).
Kasich 1 /-1
Santorum 1 /+1
I told you the average republican voter likes the Trump stuff.