politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Imagine what next Monday’s PLP meeting is going to be like
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Imagine what next Monday’s PLP meeting is going to be like if LAB loses Oldham
It’s Tuesday morning and like many other Tuesdays since Mr Corbyn had his huge victory in the Labour leadership election the political news is dominated by what happened at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
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Then Meacher sadly dies, and he gets his opportunity in a very safe seat. He bashes his opponent in the selection, and so it's all set. He can almost feel the green bench under his bum.
Except ... except Corbyn. Except McDonnell. Except Ken f'ing Livingstone. Except Momentum.
And it would help if he could learn to write.
Which IME is strangely not unusual for people who have made it as far as a doctorate. Professors can be worse, especially in industry. Nice chaps (and I assume chapesses, but I've never worked with a female professor), but sometimes incapable of looking at the broader picture ...
Such precision is nincompoopismatic, bordering doubleplusridiculous, particularly in the absence of any opinion polls from the campaign and in the light of half-baked rumours of UKIP's private polling or canvassing returns, as well as doubts about the turnout (a very low turnout rendering the result almost meaningless anyway).
I do not see any evidence of a big surge in support for UKIP, a swing to UKIP from either Labour or Conservative voters, or any evidence that the UKIP vote won't collapse with the lower turnout just as the Labour vote will collapse with the turnout.
Thus it is perfectly conceivable that Labour might win by 10,000 votes to 5,000 (or something similar) and the majority of 5,000 being - almost inadvertently - spun into being a huge triumph for the onward march of Corbynism.
The idea that UKIP might win - or come close to winning - seems to be based on the idea that the Labour vote will collapse from 23,000 to 8,000, but that the UKIP vote of 8,800 will remain magically intact, as if UKIP voters are somehow immune from lower turnouts.
"For the time being the LAB leader and his MPs are stuck with each other in a loveless forced marriage and will be for the foreseeable future." - A very good way of putting it. The question is, who instigates divorce proceedings first?
I think it is quite certain that Benn will. His position as shadow FS has put him in the lead on this and he seems all too willing to pick up the challenge. Will the other members of the SC hostile to Corbyn follow in behind or play their own politics? We have been spun the idea that there is a majority in the SC in favour of bombing. I wonder. If a majority reject the view of the Leader that would indeed be a crisis.
It is also inevitable that those who chose not to serve in the SC will take yet another chance to show what they think of Corbyn's judgement. How many? I would suggest that more than about 60 Labour MPs voting in favour would also cause a crisis.
Corbyn has aggravated a difficult situation by a series of idiotic appointments from McDonnell to Milne to Livingstone. He has, apparently, no interest in being a consensual leader. If Labour do lose Oldham the crisis may come sooner but it is coming, of that there is no doubt.
Lab: 23630, less 50% to abstentions, less 10% to UKIP = 9452
UKIP: 8892, less 25% to abstentions, plus 10% of Lab, plus 15% of Con = 10259
Con: 8187, less 30% to abstentions, less 15% to UKIP = 4503
Which having run those through makes me think that UKIP should perhaps be favourites after all.
Have you done any more reading on IHH ?
He clearly has an agenda but I agree with almost all of that.
To fix your teeth you need to look after them, sure, but they are bone like any other, they need to be nourished from the inside and they will regrow (no dentist will tell you this). You need to cut right down on sugar (not just because of acid erosion but because it undermines bone strength), and eat lots of cultured dairy (live yoghurt). Raw milk would work just as well, but is expensive. We can't properly assimilate calcium from pasteurised milk. Culturing reverses the damage done to the product when it's pasteurised. I speak from experience.
In the past, Con voters have been notoriously reluctant to vote tactically. That said, in Oldham East next door they were willing to go LD in quite large numbers in 2011 so it is possible. You're right that I've put what's probably quite a cautious figure on it though.
Right off the cliff.
From a distance it almost seems as though this election is being fought along race/ethnicity/cultural lines: Asians vote labour, WWC vote ukip, that's a very worrying development. If labour win as I expect it will paper over a lot of cracks.
Would he give up that chance for the better chance of a more Blairite party winning? I think he wouldn't.
I wonder why that is?
My dentist also repeatedly tells me not to rinse my mouth after brushing. The reason she gives (and I've no idea if this is true or not), is that most toothpaste contains chemicals that help protect the teeth and gums, and over-rigorous rinsing can remove them. If you're brushing before going to bed, by rinsing you miss many hours when those chemicals could be helping.
I always ignore the advice, as I find most toothpaste makes my mouth incredibly dry.
From memory, she says use mouthwash before brushing. Which again, has always struck me as a little odd.
I have adopted a routine: floss, mouthwash, brush,don't rinse.. Since starting that 3 years ago, my teeth appear to much healthier. As I am an OAP, I like to keep whatever faculties I have left :-)
Ideally, I want a strong centre-left party challenging the Tories and an assertive UKIP continuing to threaten its Right flank, particularly on the EU and immigration.
Obviously, i still want the Tories to win but monopolies are good for no-one.
Hands up who thinks Livingstone would back a ground invasion and occupation by NATO and the Arab League, even if mandated to do so by the UN?
The man who will never resign on principle, because he has none:
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/671598999980408832
Several Members of the Scottish Parliament have stated their concern over Police Scotland's decision to pursue whistleblowers citing investigative failures, rather than renewing the investigation itself.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/11/30/police_scotland_taken_tribunal_former_detective_unlawful_snooping/
This seems like an incredibly stupid attitude for a candidate and potential MP - and very Eoin/Owenish. Creating your own echo chamber bubble strikes me as someone who can't accept they represent all parts of their constituency.
Eoin and Owen can do what they fancy - not a likely MP by Friday. For a supposedly sensible chap - he's making a mistake.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/nov/30/london-selfies-glummer-study-big-bang-data?CMP=twt_gu
"Sitting Labour MPs fighting as Independent Labour candidates on either current or new boundaries would be likely to significantly eat into the Labour vote - especially if they are high profile.
Does that matter to Jezza? They're all Tories anyway.
Jezza is a man on a mission to bring back true socialism. The longest journey begins with a single step and all that. Gradualism is the key to ensure that the frog doesn't jump out the pan. But if the frog is a Tory one, it's good riddance.
I still expect Labour to win, but this might really help UKIP with renewal of memberships and reinvigorating the party after it did so well in the 2014 European vote but failed in the General Election.
Someone here ages ago mentioned meeting him once and said he seemed a nice chappy.
Will bombing make us safer? Probably not.
Will bombing make us less safe? Probably not.
Does anyone anywhere know the way out of the barbarous chaos let loose by the Arab Spring? Probably not, including all the participants.
I'm sure those well to the Left of me felt similarly appalled and frustrated when Tony won, and won and won.
Unfortunately for them, they're making a monumental pig's ear of it.
Today, Labour MP, Jon Ashworth replied
https://twitter.com/timesredbox/status/671605697960935424
It does seem a bit odd.
Still, that's why the term 'echo chamber' is often so accurate.
Like limbo dancing Oompa Loompas, the bar is set quite low for Corbyn
My lefty luvvie mate has loads of right on Greenie/SWP mates. One of them just put on fb that Corbyn's actions yesterday will have gained the party millions of votes!
The Shadow Cabinet and the PLP are leaking like a sieve.
But a sieve intentionally leaks?
Ahh, right.
Now, they're like a mini-series of entertainment every week.
And Diane Abbott is the worse for blocking people. Probably explains why she always comes across as living in some entirely parallel universe.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ilk1lytlmr/InternalResults_151126_Spending_Review_W.pdf
The data also shows that Scots are most likely to be negative about the economy and the public do not believe that the nation's books will be balanced by 2020 - so, missing the deficit reduction target is already factored in to views about Osborne and voting intention.
Similarly, people believe that key public services will not be stronger so this is also factored in to voting intention.
Quite possibly. Mainly because we are rapidly entering the Xmas zone, where people's minds are on other matters for a few weeks.
Same thing happened when IDS was in charge, party discipline breaks down.
Mr. Abode, it just seems odd to me. Obviously if someone pesters you or is abusive, blocking makes sense. But having a different opinion? That's the whole point of democracy and freedom of choice. Saying "Rawr, you're wrong" and blocking works fine online, but doesn't cut it in reality.
Unfortunately for the hard left, voting occurs in reality, not Twitter.
I doubt the shambles on the opposite benches gets a look in.
One of your silliest posts in quite some time!