politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to week 13 of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to week 13 of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership
Just about everything in British politics is now looked at through the prism of the impact on Labour’s new leadership. Is Corbyn going to try to impose a whip on his party to oppose Syrian air-strikes and what happens to his party either way?
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Like Labour in Oldham, I suspect......
Also pointing out voters views of Corbyn is 'unhelpful' and not to be done if you are 'loyal'.
I do hope they canvas like that.....
As for Oldham - I suspect Labour will hold it - strong local candidate and a huge majority......then I remember what happened to 'safe' seats in Scotland....and pause....
November 30, 2015:
PP 27.1
Ciu 23.0
PSOE 20.2
Podemos 16.2
But UKIP's message about ending Corbyn's leadership is the more intriguing question for me. The hard left (i.e. Corbyn's natural constituency) hate the Conservatives, who are their main 'enemy', but seem to utterly despise UKIP.
I can see many of Corbyn's supporters being far from happy with him if his leadership leads to UKIP gaining seats and prominence. It's one of the few things that might put pressure on him from his natural constituency. Although those people would want him replaced with someone similar, if there is anyone ...
Google has a very Scottish-themed doodle for St Andrew's Day.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11951587/Seumas-Milne-will-finish-Labour-off.html
"the former LAB leader is a Tory. The world’s gone mad"
Worth re-posting this link from yesterday on the mind-set of a typical Momentum activist.
https://rotherhampolitics.wordpress.com/2015/11/29/rotherham-momentum-meeting-7pm-tuesday-1st-december/
The world has indeed gone quite mad.
Unless the other sensible members organize and fight Labour re going to be hollowed out by Stop the War and other fellow travellers.
Narco's on Netflix is also great.
He faces a big call today. Even McDonnell is urging a free vote on Syria. If that is granted any rebellion loses its sting. If it is not surely even in Labour resignations will follow. My guess is that both Corbyn and the PLP will back off but if I was to choose one of them to precipitate a crisis it would be Corbyn.
' Who governs Britain?'
Well actually maybe not quite. 'Who governs Labour?'
The next Labour leader will have an impossible task - either rid the Party of its activists, or its pretensions to office. It can never govern again, if indeed it ever did.
We need to be the natural home for these Red Tories.
Can you image McDonnell would have survived if he had thrown Mein Kampf across the dispatch box instead of the Little Red Book?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-34716852
The NPCC's comments seem quite sensible. Better not to do this sort of thing so you won't have to sue ...
Not long until we see the result. I wonder if a red win would prove Pyrrhic, especially if they lose a shedload of WWC voters to UKIP. If they win, Corbyn and Mao will continue as before, but if they lose maybe even PLP jellyfish will realise they've got to act.
Maybe.
How many is that? 7m finger in the air. What % is that?
- It must be a whipped vote
- Jezza decides the whip
- He will whip against
- Anyone defying the whip must resign
How many times did Corbyn resign when he defied the whip?
Scotland.
We've made large parts of the country Labour free, let's make the Labour Party history.
That could mean that the leader decides and the cabinet are expected to fall into line.
Everything is ambiguous with Labour's rules!
Labour's message of UKIP being led by Thatcherites did not work particularly well as a significant number of voters were born after she left office. Give it a couple of decades and the Tories should be able to make inroads into Labour's heartlands.
Nice sentiment but if doing that involves the Tories following the same policies as Labour, what's the point? Or don't you care (I suspect you don't).
What have you ever done for the Tory party except snipe and sneer from the sidelines ?
My prediction for what it's worth (not a lot) is Labour by 2,000.
Look at how much the Tories have cut spending as a % of gdp. George has done in five years what Thatcher did in eleven years.
I like the Tory focus and improvement on education.
This isn't what Labour would offer.
I got involved in politics, fighting people like Corbyn, before you were born. But I did that because I wanted to defeat what they stood for, not out of some Man Utd. vs Liverpool 'team loyalty'. You don't appear to think there is any difference.
It ain't my fault you ignore that.
@MichaelDugher: Here's a radical idea: why not listen to what the public are saying https://t.co/bxi16KQKV7 #Syria
@bbclaurak: Sounds like Shad cabinet moved forward to 10am this morning
There's no way Corbyn is going to lead Labour for five years: he could be out before the end of the week. It's possible he'll lead something - a wider movement under the Momentum banner - but Jezza is going to part company with the parliamentary Labour leadership fairly quickly now, and most likely because they will leave him. How do I know? A hunch only. We have a political system that requires a parliamentary opposition and there hasn't been one these three months. The vacuum cannot go on. Even if Corbyn gets through this week, there are too many other massive hurdles for him, such as Trident, Europe, economic policy. We don't know the Labour position on anything any more.
Also, people have missed something else about the Syria vote, if it takes place. It'll be curtains for Dave, too, if he loses.
Really? One minute you are cheering the Conservatives copying Blair's policies and getting excited about people like Burnham crossing the floor, and the next you say this.
So is it the case that you only think these 'massive differences' exist between Corbyn-Labour and the Cameron Conservatives/New Labour/Social Democrats?
I think you would be broadly indifferent between Blair and Cameron, and entirely indifferent if they wore the same team shirt.
I think you are simultaneously exactly right and exactly wrong. Corbyn and his lefty mob have a stranglehold on Labour now. The party rules and the membership make him invulnerable. He's going nowehere. Labour is going nowhere. But...the moderates, the PLP and the lefty voting public probably won't stomach this forever - and something new may well come along. It just won't be called 'Labour'. I think Labour will survive but become a Momentum/Stop The War/Respect type hard lefty rabble with little electoral support. And the left will re-split as the sensibles realise the Labour brand is lost to them and create something new.
There's a fundamental/massive difference between Blairite labour and Tory policies. Labour increased the size of the state once they stopped following Ken Clarke's plans. The Cameroon agenda is to try and shrink the state.
If similar fellows are door-knocking in Oldham - well...
I disagree on both counts. Whilst I agree we need an opposition and don't really have one, the PLP are historically incompetent at regicide and Corbyn seems determined to cling on. Even if he goes, the rules are being rewritten constantly to try and perpetuate the hard left's domination.
I think the media bangs on about Cameron losing the Syria vote last time as a major problem (and I thought then it would be) but most people don't really care. Cameron's already got a sell-by date, and won't go a little early if he loses the vote, though it will dent his reputation.
Why would it be curtains for Cameron? He survived the previous Syria vote. He'll just shrug and say: "It was the wrong decision, but let us move on."
The biggest problem long-term for him would be if there was a big backbench rebellion amongst his own MPs, but even that would get drowned out initially by Labour's problems: either a big banckbench rebellion for Corbyn, or a vote against action with timid MPs obeying his whip against their better judgement.
Cameron's political death has been forecast many times on here. Sometimes it was something to do with a horse, at others buying fish in a Morrisons Store. He's survived all these major scandals and even got a majority this May.
He is a survivor, and that's partly because people underestimate him. "Oh, he's an Etonian," they say, as if the electorate will gasp in horror. "He's out of touch," they scream, without realising that they're just reinforcing the electorate's view of politicians. "He's a Tory!" they hyperventilate, " as the electorate reply: "at least he's sane."
However, the risk in misusing terminology is that the insult is father to the fact. If people who are not Tories keep on being told by Corbynites that they are, then they may conclude that there is merit in the description, particularly if Osborne is trying to recruit such individuals to his big tent.
Where does he stand on EU?
Where does he stand on Syria?
What about green issues after posing with huskies?
What about immigration which he continually pledges to reduce yet continually rises?
Cameron's tories are utterly vacuous
The football analogy is the best one for politics.
The Conservatives are Chelsea. Rich, successful but unloved. When they take a fall, there is gloating from all the non-committed.
Labour are Manchester City. Everything in their favour - the plucky underdogs, with a surprising and loyal support, but they always cock things up.
the LDs are Bournemouth. They play nice patterns but they're always unlucky and they always get relegated in the end.
You're full of more bitter than a Northern pub.
@TelePolitics: Corbyn's former lover backs traffic scheme which could see her house value soar above £1million https://t.co/YAfYyoppuy